Latest data compilation and notes.
08/28/2026
The US Equity Strategy model uses our momentum methodology.to compare and ranks 7 alternative US equity strategies (represented by the most popular smart-beta ETFs based on volume and capitalization) and 2 global asset allocation strategies . The 7 US equity strategies include US growth, US value, US momentum, US low volatility, US high dividend, US fundamentals, and US equal weight. The 2 global asset allocation strategies are moderate and aggressive. The table below compares the relative strength of each of the 9 strategies to a SPY benchmark and a SHY cash baseline. The table below provides a recent switch history.
NOTE: All of the strategies in this model except IWM are derivative of and highly correlated to the S&P. When the S&P is bearish, hits a stop-loss, or gives some other sell signal, adopting a strategy that is highly correlated to it is not recommended. Both SPY and the chosen ETF must be technically positive (TS>50) or better and working on a buy-stop to initiate a switch with the sole exception of IWM.
THIS WEEK: 1st MIXED-Risk week after 1 Risk-OFF week.
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds UP and Gold DOWN
The US Equity Strategy (USES) Model HOLDS US Small-Caps (IWM) since 7/15/2026 after MTUM triggered a stop-loss.
MTUM leads in overall confidence and ROC among USES assets, but it lags in technical strength and has a negative price momentum (PMO). It triggered a buy-stop (8/13) but price is down since, leaving incumbent IWM in the USES model’s top slot. IWM’s technical strength is bullish and its PMO is positive but deteriorating.
Best Alternatives: US High Dividend (SPYD) has a better chart and strong technicals as well as a positive (but deteriorating) PMO.
Volatility Alert: IWM has an unfilled downside gap (249-259) from April 8.
*Stop-loss, **Buy-stop, ***note
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
PERFORMANCE: IWM leads YTD and over 39 and 52 weeks but it is fading as rate hikes appear more likely.
Best Alternative: SPYD has a better chart and stronger technicals.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
Economic, financial and political conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Massive Fed involvement in the markets, along with fiscal stimulus leads to financial engineering and market stability. That generally favors buy-and-hold (B&H) and US equity timing. As a result, US Equity Strategy timing has outperformed in seven of the last nine years. While some form of timing has thus outperformed B&H in most years, that is not to say its success will continue should political and economic conditions change measurably in the future.
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