Latest data compilation and notes.
09/18/2026
The US Equity Strategy model uses our momentum methodology.to compare and ranks 7 alternative US equity strategies (represented by the most popular smart-beta ETFs based on volume and capitalization) and 2 global asset allocation strategies . The 7 US equity strategies include US growth, US value, US momentum, US low volatility, US high dividend, US fundamentals, and US equal weight. The 2 global asset allocation strategies are moderate and aggressive. The table below compares the relative strength of each of the 9 strategies to a SPY benchmark and a SHY cash baseline. The table below provides a recent switch history.
NOTE: All of the strategies in this model except IWM are derivative of and highly correlated to the S&P. When the S&P is bearish, hits a stop-loss, or gives some other sell signal, adopting a strategy that is highly correlated to it is not recommended. Both SPY and the chosen ETF must be technically positive (TS>50) or better and working on a buy-stop to initiate a switch with the sole exception of IWM.
THIS WEEK: 2nd Risk-OFF week in a row.
US Stocks DOWN, Foreign Stocks DOWN, Bonds UP and Gold UP
The US Equity Strategy (USES) Model sold US Small-Caps (IWM) on 9/11/2026 for Cash (MMF)
Equities are still beating cash, bonds, and gold, but for how long? Former #1 US small-caps were a clear sell (9/11) ahead of the Fed rate decision. IWM was no longer bullish and had a negative and deteriorating PMO. With the Fed rate hike this week there is no longer positive improving price momentum for any of the US equity strategies we track. Several have lost bullishness and seen their PMO turn negative. Growth is the only strategy that beats the SPY benchmark at the moment, but its price momentum is weak and deteriorating and could turn negative along with that of SPY itself. SPY and all attendant strategies have triggered 20-day stop-losses. Best to wait in cash.
Best Alternatives: US Growth IUSG once PMO improving and buy-stops return.
*Stop-loss, **Buy-stop, ***note
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
PERFORMANCE: Momentum has been working best over multiple time periods ,but PMO is currently negative
Best Alternative: US Growth (IUSG) is only strategy > SPY with a positive PMO, but it is deteriorating.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
Economic, financial and political conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Massive Fed involvement in the markets, along with fiscal stimulus leads to financial engineering and market stability. That generally favors buy-and-hold (B&H) and US equity timing. As a result, US Equity Strategy timing has outperformed in seven of the last nine years. While some form of timing has thus outperformed B&H in most years, that is not to say its success will continue should political and economic conditions change measurably in the future.
Copyright © 2026 Decision Moose - All Rights Reserved.