Latest data compilation and notes.
08/07/2026
The US Equity Strategy model uses our momentum methodology.to compare and ranks 7 alternative US equity strategies (represented by the most popular smart-beta ETFs based on volume and capitalization) and 2 global asset allocation strategies . The 7 US equity strategies include US growth, US value, US momentum, US low volatility, US high dividend, US fundamentals, and US equal weight. The 2 global asset allocation strategies are moderate and aggressive. The table below compares the relative strength of each of the 9 strategies to a SPY benchmark and a SHY cash baseline. The table below provides a recent switch history.
NOTE: All of the strategies in this model except IWM are derivative of and highly correlated to the S&P. When the S&P is bearish, hits a stop-loss, or gives some other sell signal, adopting a strategy that is highly correlated to it is not recommended. Both SPY and the chosen ETF must be technically positive (TS>50) or better and working on a buy-stop to initiate a switch with the sole exception of IWM.
The model framework selects the asset with the best momentum, technicals, and recent price action in which to invest 100% of the portfolio. Momentum is ranked according to Confidence Index, Technical Strength, and Fed Monetary policy. The Donchian 20-day system is used to set stops. In addition, RSI and PMO are used to filter switch signals. *Currently overbought.
THIS WEEK: 2nd Risk-ON week after two Risk-OFF weeks.
US Stocks UP Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds UP and Gold UP
The US Equity Strategy (USES) Model HOLDS US Small-Caps (IWM) on 7/15/2026 after MTUM triggered a stop-loss.
IWM leads in overall confidence among USES assets not on a sell signal. It also leads in positive PMO. Technical strength is very bullish. IWM has also triggered a stop-loss but it was unconfirmed— (PMO remained positive, 50-day kept rising, closing price above 50-day in 5 of last 7 days and above initial stop-loss seven of seven days and eventually broke higher.
Best Alternative:Large-cap High Dividend (SPYD) has strong technicals and a positive but deteriorating PMO. With MTUM on a stop-loss, it is the strongest alternative to IWM.
Volatility Alert: IWM still has a downside gap to fill (from 4/8) and may do so before the US/Iran war is put to bed.
*Stop-loss, **Buy-stop, ***note
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
PERFORMANCE: MTUM (stop-loss) leads YTD and over 26 weeks, and 3 years. IWM is second YTD.
Best Alternatives: Of asset choices working off a buy-stop SPYD is best. That said MTUM remains a strong performer over 13 and 26 weeks, and its recent stop-loss could indicate a buy-the-dip opportunity. AI, after all is not going away.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
Economic, financial and political conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Massive Fed involvement in the markets, along with fiscal stimulus leads to financial engineering and market stability. That generally favors buy-and-hold (B&H) and US equity timing. As a result, US Equity Strategy timing has outperformed in seven of the last nine years. While some form of timing has thus outperformed B&H in most years, that is not to say its success will continue should political and economic conditions change measurably in the future.
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