Latest data compilation and notes.
05/15/2026
The US Equity Strategy model uses our momentum methodology.to compare and ranks 7 alternative US equity strategies (represented by the most popular smart-beta ETFs based on volume and capitalization) and 2 global asset allocation strategies . The 7 US equity strategies include US growth, US value, US momentum, US low volatility, US high dividend, US fundamentals, and US equal weight. The 2 global asset allocation strategies are moderate and aggressive. The table below compares the relative strength of each of the 9 strategies to a SPY benchmark and a SHY cash baseline. The table below provides a recent switch history.
NOTE: All of the strategies in this model except IWM are derivative of and highly correlated to the S&P. When the S&P is bearish, hits a stop-loss, or gives some other sell signal, adopting a strategy that is highly correlated to it is not recommended. Both SPY and the chosen ETF must be technically positive (TS>50) or better and working on a buy-stop to initiate a switch with the sole exception of IWM.
The model framework selects the asset with the best momentum, technicals, and recent price action in which to invest 100% of the portfolio. Momentum is ranked according to Confidence Index, Technical Strength, and Fed Monetary policy. The Donchian 20-day system is used to set stops. In addition, RSI and PMO are used to filter switch signals. *Currently overbought.
THIS WEEK saw a Risk-OFF week after 2 Risk-ON:
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks DOWN, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
The US Equity Strategy (USES) Model HOLDS IWM since 4/13/2026.
IWM leads in CI, but not ROC. TS, or PMO, which is positive but deteriorating.
Volatility Alert:It is likely both SPY and IWM will fill their latest downside gaps and retest their 200-day before the US/Iran war is put to bed.
Best Alternative: Large caps are volatile and under-performing small-caps. Among large-caps, however momentum has made the biggest move in the last three weeks and quarter, but it remains overbought.
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
Small-caps have the CI lead, are very bullish and have a positive price momentum oscillator. IWM is however losing steam.
Best Alternatives: Performance-wise, MTUM is now leading year-to-date and is first over 2, 13, 26 weeks and 3 years. Momentum’s sudden strength may push it into first place via CI soon, but it is overbought.
THIS WEEK saw a Risk-OFF week after 2 Risk-ON:
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks DOWN, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
The US Equity Strategy (USES) Model HOLDS IWM since 4/13/2026.
Volatility Alert: It is likely both SPY and IWM will fill their latest downside gaps and retest their 50-day before the US/Iran war is put to bed.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
Economic, financial and political conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Massive Fed involvement in the markets, along with fiscal stimulus leads to financial engineering and market stability. That generally favors buy-and-hold (B&H) and US equity timing. As a result, US Equity Strategy timing has outperformed in seven of the last nine years. While some form of timing has thus outperformed B&H in most years, that is not to say its success will continue should political and economic conditions change measurably in the future.
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