Latest data compilation and notes.
03/06/2026
The US Equity Strategy model uses our momentum methodology.to compare and ranks 7 alternative US equity strategies (represented by the most popular smart-beta ETFs based on volume and capitalization) and 2 global asset allocation strategies . The 7 US equity strategies include US growth, US value, US momentum, US low volatility, US high dividend, US fundamentals, and US equal weight. The 2 global asset allocation strategies are moderate and aggressive. The table below compares the relative strength of each of the 9 strategies to a SPY benchmark and a SHY cash baseline. The table below provides a recent switch history.
NOTE: All of the strategies in this model are derivative of and highly correlated to the S&P. When the S&P is bearish, hits a stop-loss, or gives some other sell signal, adopting a strategy that is highly correlated to it is not recommended. Both SPY and the chosen ETF must be technically positive (TS>0) or better and working on a buy-stop to initiate a switch.
The model framework selects the asset with the best momentum, technicals, and recent price action in which to invest 100% of the portfolio. Momentum is ranked according to Confidence Index, Technical Strength, and Fed Monetary policy. The Donchian 20-day system is used to set stops. In addition, RSI and PMO are used to filter switch signals. *Currently overbought.
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing. SPYD leads in overall confidence, rate of change, technical strength, and positive PMO. Performance-wise, SPYD leads year-to-date and over 13, 26, and 39 weeks.
Best Alternatives: Nothing recent stands out. US Stocks are bullish entering 2026, but US large caps, especially in the Mag 7 growth category are hung-over from year-end valuation constraints. Adding small caps and International shares are showing strength against US equities.
THIS WEEK’s Risk-OFF week follows 1 MIXED-Risk week. US Stocks DOWN, Foreign Stocks DOWN, US Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
US Equity Strategy (USES) Model bought into US High Dividend (SPYD) 2/16/25 @169.25 after selling IUSG 2/10/2026. The benchmark (SPY) is bullish.
NOTE: SPY and SPYD have triggered stop-losses as of Friday 3/6/26. Will wait until Monday to decide whether to go to cash.
USES MOOSE YTD -1.6%
SPY (Equity Benchmark) -1.9%
This week: High dividend SPYD became the #1 choice 2/10/26. Growth (IUSG) was sold at the time, but SPYD was overbought until 2/17/26 when it was purchased at 47.58. A US Small-cap (IWM) strategy is being added to the USES model, which previously only dealt with US large cap strategies. It will broaden the choices in US equity only portfolio. More details next week.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
Economic, financial and political conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Massive Fed involvement in the markets, along with fiscal stimulus leads to financial engineering and market stability. That generally favors buy-and-hold (B&H) and US equity timing. As a result, US Equity Strategy timing has outperformed in seven of the last nine years. While some form of timing has thus outperformed B&H in most years, that is not to say its success will continue should political and economic conditions change measurably in the future.
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