MooseModels
Systematic, rules-based signals for self-directed investors
Decision Moose does not rely on hunches, headlines, or hot tips. Every model is driven by the same core principle: let the market tell you where the money wants to go, then follow it. Each week, the models rank asset classes by relative strength and technical momentum, producing clear, actionable signals — no guesswork required.
Global Index Model
The flagship — rank the world, own the best
The Global Index Model ranks nine major asset classes every week using the Confidence Index (CI), a composite of relative strength and technical momentum. The top-ranked asset above the cash yield gets the allocation. When nothing clears cash, you sit in cash. Simple, disciplined, and battle-tested over 34 years.
Asset Classes
US Large-caps (SPY), US Small-caps (IWM), Europe (IEV), Asia-Pacific (AAXJ), Japan (EWJ), Latin America (ILF), Short US Income (SGOV), Very Long US Bonds (EDV), Gold (GLD)
Signal Frequency
Weekly signals, published every Friday
Track Record
34-year back-tested track record with live signals since 1998
TSP Model
The Global Index Model — translated for federal employees
Federal employees and military personnel investing through the Thrift Savings Plan cannot hold ETFs directly. The TSP Model maps Global Index Model signals to the five core TSP funds — C, S, I, F, and G — so TSP investors can follow the same systematic discipline as everyone else. Each week, the model tells you exactly which TSP fund to hold.
Asset Classes
C Fund (US large-caps), S Fund (US small/mid-caps), I Fund (international), F Fund (fixed income), G Fund (government securities)
Signal Frequency
Weekly signals, aligned with Global Index Model
Track Record
Derived from the same 34-year Global Index methodology
USES Model
Sector rotation within the US equity market
When US equities are the place to be, the USES (US Equity Sector) Model drills down further. It ranks all 11 SPDR sector ETFs by the same CI methodology, rotating into the strongest sector each week. The result is a concentrated, momentum-driven US equity strategy that aims to own the sector leading the market — not the whole market.
Asset Classes
All 11 SPDR sector ETFs: XLK, XLV, XLF, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLB, XLU, XLRE, XLC
Signal Frequency
Weekly signals, published every Friday
Track Record
Sector rotation back-tested alongside the Global Index framework
How the Models Work
Rank Every Asset
Each week, every asset in the model is scored using the Confidence Index — a composite of its relative rank among peers and its Technical Strength (TS) reading. Higher CI means stronger momentum.
Compare to Cash
The top-ranked asset is only worth holding if it clears the cash yield hurdle. When no asset is more attractive than cash, the model moves to the sidelines. Capital preservation is part of the system.
Switch When the Signal Changes
Models switch when a new asset moves to the top of the rankings and the previous holding drops below it. Switches are infrequent — typically a handful per year — keeping transaction costs low and emotions out of the equation.
Follow the Signal
No overrides. No second-guessing. The model says hold, you hold. The model says switch, you switch. Discipline is the edge.
Ready to Follow the Models?
MooseCall subscribers receive the full weekly signal report every Friday, including all model rankings, any switches, and the complete CI and TS data behind every recommendation.
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