MooseModels
Systematic, rules-based signals for self-directed investors
Decision Moose does not rely on hunches, headlines, or hot tips. Every model is driven by the same core principle: let market prices tell you where the money wants to go, then follow it. Each week, the models rank asset class momentum by relative and technical strength, producing clear, actionable signals — no guesswork required.
Global Index Model
The flagship — rank the world, own the best
The Global Index Model ranks seven major asset classes every week using the Confidence Index (CI), a composite of relative strength and technical momentum. The top-ranked asset above the cash yield gets the allocation. When nothing clears cash, you sit in cash. Simple, disciplined, and battle-tested over 34 years.
Asset Classes
US Large-caps (SPY), US Small-caps (IWM), Developed (EFA), Emerging (EEM), Short US Income (SGOV), Very Long US Bonds (EDV), Gold (GLD)
Signal Frequency
Daily signals, published weekly.
Track Record
The Global Index Model has outpaced Aggressive (AOA) and Moderate (AOM) Buy & Hold and the S&P benchmark in 2025 and 2026 due to the inclusion of Gold.
TSP Model
The Global Index Model — translated for federal employees
Federal employees and military personnel invest for retirement through the Thrift Savings Plan. The TSP Model not only includes five core TSP funds — C, S, I, F, and G — but measures them against four Lifetime or diversified buy-and-hold funds (2030, 2040, 2050, 2060) from short to long-term. Each week, the model tells you exactly which TSP fund exhibits the best momentum.
Asset Classes
C Fund (US large-caps), S Fund (US small/mid-caps), I Fund (international), F Fund (fixed income), G Fund (government securities) and four Lifetime funds, conservative to very aggressive.
Signal Frequency
Daily signals, published weekly
Track Record
Very aggressive to moderate Lifetime funds (Buy & Hold) have out-paced the TSP Timing Model in 2026. Timing works best when the Fed is definitively engaged in either raising or lowering rates. Rate stability favors Buy & Hold.
USES Model
Strategic rotation within the US equities
When US equities are the place to be, the USES (US Equity Strategy) Model drills down further. It ranks 8 S&P sector ETFs, along with US small caps, and cash by the same CI methodology, identifying the strongest strategy each week. The result is a concentrated, momentum-driven US equity strategy that aims to outperform the SPY benchmark.
Asset Classes
8 S&P ETFs: Momentum (MTUM), Growth (IUSG), Fundamentals (QUAL), Benchmark (SPY), Equal Weight (RSP), Value (IUSV), High Dividend (SPYD), Low Vplatility (SPLV), along with Small-cap (IWM) and Cash (SGOV).
Signal Frequency
Daily signals, published weekly
Track Record
The USES model outperformed SPY in '22,'24 and '25, but it underperformed in '23 and year-to-date..USES Timing works best when US equities are outperforming international equities, US bonds, and gold.
How the Models Work
Rank Every Asset
Each week, every asset in the model is scored using the Confidence Index — a composite of its relative rank among peers and its Technical Strength (TS) reading. Higher CI means stronger momentum.
Compare to Cash
The top-ranked asset is only worth holding if it clears the cash yield hurdle. When no asset is more attractive than cash, the model moves to the sidelines. Capital preservation is part of the system.
Switch When the Signal Changes
Models switch when a new asset moves to the top of the rankings and the previous holding drops below it. Switches are infrequent — typically a handful per year — keeping transaction costs low and emotions out of the equation.
Follow the Signal
No overrides. No second-guessing. The model says hold, you hold. The model says switch, you switch. Discipline is the edge.
Ready to Follow the Models?
MooseCall subscribers receive the full weekly signal report every Friday, including all model rankings, any switches, and the complete CI and TS data behind every recommendation.
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