Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Bubbles in the Air
Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 10/12/25:
Speculative bubble talk over the past couple of weeks gained traction this week. Equities and gold pulled back from overbought levels, eventually taking an attention-getting tumble late in the week. Several assets triggered 20-day stop losses or came close on Friday, leaving the weekend a nailbiter. In the US, small caps led large caps lower, but offshore equities fared even worse. Stock markets in Asia-Pacific, Japan, Latin America, and Europe all took substantial hits. The post-rate-cut rally in US long bonds continued. The 10-year yield fell to 4.05%, and the cash yield dipped to 3.85%, flattening the yield curve to 20 basis points. The Dollar strengthened as oil and commodities weakened. Gold broke ranks with the losers and added another 3%, despite an “elevator-down” kind of Thursday. No change in the models.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 10/12/25
Index Model Posts Record Return
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
Strong demand for gold continues, backed by a the rumor of two future Fed rate cuts before year-end. Expected dips after the last FOMC decision began to materialize this week, but have yet to alleviate GLD's overbought condition. Gold and equities are more attractive than cash. Only very long bonds (EDV) are not. Among equities, foreign are more attractive than US, and among foreign equities, emerging markets are currently more attractive than developed. Recommendation: If you're in gold, hang tight. If not, wait for a dip from current overbought levels to get in.
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch back to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut expected 9/18. With rate cuts, trillions in US federal deficit spending, and US tariffs weakening the Dollar through December, foreign equities and hard assets still have excellent future prospects.
PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE:
INDEX MOOSE +81%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +13%
SPY BENCHMARK +11%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +8%
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.