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Glonbal Investment Market Thumbnail through 8/22/25:

It was one of those weeks like the ones when we were in Junior High School. Everyone was waiting for Friday. When Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole about a possible rate cut in two weeks didn’t promise anything but didn’t rule it out either, Friday apparently became cause for celebration. In one session, equities, bonds, and gold all turned four days of lethargy into a week of positivity. Equities got a third consecutive risk-on week as laggard US small-caps (+3.4%) continue to make up ground on US large-caps (+0.3%). Even US bonds (+1.0%) got a bounce on Friday to close the week up. (The 10-year Treasury yield fell 7 bps to 4.26%, and the 3-month cash yield dipped to 4.09%, flattening the yield curve.) A flat Dollar (0.0%) had little impact on the gain in commodities (+1.5%), including gold (+1.0%) and oil (+2.5%), and it had a negligible impact on foreign equities. Latin America (+2.3%), Europe (+1.5%), and Asia-Pacific (+1.4%) led the way higher while overbought Japan (-0.2%) self-corrected after a recent surge. (See Moospeak.) The Models: No change.

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