Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL
The Global Investment Markets This Week
Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 9/19/25:
The Fed cut its overnight rate by a quarter percent on Wednesday and the markets responded predictably. After a “buy the rumor” couple of weeks stocks peaked the day of the FOMC meeting and sold on the news. The dip was minor, however, as two more cuts have been promised. On the week, US small caps, which get the most out of lower rates, outperformed US large caps. Emerging foreign equities were solid as well, with Latin America leading Asia-Pacific. Developed foreign equities, however, were only up fractionally with Europe and Japan essentially flat. After the cut, US Treasury bond prices dipped into their two-week 7% gain off the US million jobs mistake. Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, and the 3-month cash yield fell to 3.88%. A quiet Dollar had little impact on the slip in commodities or the gains in oil and gold. It was the third Risk-ON week in a row: US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks UP, Bonds DOWN, and Gold UP. The Models: No change.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 9/19/25
Model Highlights
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The strong demand for gold on the rumor of a Fed rate cut over the past two weeks continues. The expected dip after Wednesday's FOMC decision was not sufficient to alleviate GLD's overbought condition. Gold and all equities are more attractive than cash. Only very long bonds (EDV) are not. Among equities foreign are more attractive than US, and among foreign equities, emerging markets are currently more attractive than developed.
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut expected 9/18. With rate cuts, trillions in US federal deficit spending, and US tariffs continuing through September, foreign equities and hard assets appear to have the best future prospects.
PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE:
INDEX MOOSE 52.3%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) 14.8%
SPY BENCHMARK 13.2%
AOM (Moderate Growth) 9.6%
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 30-years. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.