Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Rate Cut
Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 12/14/25:
Markets were mixed this week in the wake of the Fed decision to lower its overnight rate to 3.50% and ahead of year-end window-dressing. There were notable divergences among the asset classes we track, though much of the decision was already factored in. Long-duration Treasury bonds fell sharply as the 10-year yield rose to 4.19%, despite an additional $40 billion in Fed easing. Cash yields sank to 3.53%. The US dollar declined modestly despite higher yields, reflecting expectations of a weaker US economy that may require another rate cut.
US equities were mixed, with large caps edging lower and small caps outperforming in preparation for the January Effect. Foreign equities generally fared better, led by Latin America and Europe, while Japan slowed and Asia-Pacific ex-Japan lagged. Commodities declined, led by oil, but gold reasserted itself after several weeks of lethargy, providing a defensive offset amid rate and currency moves.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 12/14/25
Gold On Hold
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model has had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual year-to-date gain about a month ago, most of it from gold. Severely overbought, gold corrected about 11% on hawkish Fed-speak in November, never triggering a stop-loss. Last week, Emerging markets (EEM) and US small caps (IWM) have both overtook gold in the primary momentum metric (CI%). Gold continues to lead in technical strength, PMO, and quarterly performance. The Fed rate cut this week propelled gold 2.4% higher.
PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE:
INDEX MOOSE +58%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +17%
SPY BENCHMARK +16%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +11%
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut on 9/18. With rate cuts and trillions in US federal deficit spending gold and hard assets should have solid future prospects.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.