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The Moosecalls global investment newsletter tracks investment strategy performance, including buy-and-hold and market timing using ETFs as proxies for indices.
GLOBAL MARKETS:
WEEK’S ACTION— MIXED-Risk (1)
THIS WEEK was the first MIXED-Risk week after two risk-ON. Foreign Stocks MIXED, US Stocks DOWN US Bonds UP Gold UP.
CRAZINESS RETURNS
TDS at Davos made for a disjointed, somewhat crazy mixed-risk week. Gold bullion (+8.7%) and Latin America (+7.7%) rocketed higher this week.
US equities continued to languish with large caps (-0.4%) and small caps (-0.4%) both Incurring fractional losses as US interest rates rose. (The 10-year hit 4.24% and the 30-day settled at 3.58%.)
Japanese equities (-1.1%) also lost ground when investors got nervous over the Federal Reserve doing a rate check on the Japanese Yen, portending a global central bank intervention that could get messy.
Meanwhile, Europe (+0.7%) and Asia Pacific (+1.4%) continued to advance. Commodities (+4.4%) and oil (+3.2%) also rallied on a much weaker dollar (-1.9%). The one model change—TSP switched to Fund I (International) from Fund C (US large caps).
GLOBAL OUTLOOK REMAINS POSITIVE 3 of 4). The Baltic Dry Index is lower in the past quarter (13 weeks). Copper and oil prices, along with bond yields are all higher, positives for the global economy.
INFLATION: PCE Inflation Steady and In-Line at 2.7%. Commodity and oil prices up for a fourth week due to concern over political developments in Venezuela and Iran. Ex-Im Prices heat up as tariff regimen gains traction.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Very good weekly report. Income, Spending, Construction, Consumer Sentiment Up
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.58 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate cut to 3.50-3.75%. The Fed Check is neutral (steady rate policy warranted globally). The next 25 bps Fed rate cut (likelihood >60-40) is expected June 17 (62%).
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: (1) The Index Model is outperforming all competitors in 2026. It remains in gold (GLD) after switching from EFA via buy-stop on August 28. It surged this week and is overbought again. (2) The US Equity Strategy (USES) Model bought into US Growth in December. No change since. IUSG came close to a stop loss this week but rebounded away. SPY did as well. US stocks are not the best equity choice, but they still beat cash. (3) The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) switched out of US large-cap stocks (Fund C) and into Fund (I) International stocks this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK: POSITIVE (3 of 4)
Indications remain positive for the global economy.
An international shipping measure and proxy for current global trade, the Baltic Dry Index rose to 1762 this week, and is lower after 13 weeks, a negative signal. (After opening 2025 at 1072, BDI is still well below its 2010 peak @4640.)
Meanwhile, another proxy for world activity, WTI oil price at 61.28 rose this week, up slightly for the latest quarter, a positive signal. (Oil remains below its 2022 peak @$130, but well above its 2020 Covid lows @$10.)
Our proxy for global construction, copper ($5.95) rose this week, but remains higher this quarter, a positivesignal.
Domestically, 10Y US bond yields rose 1 ticks to 4.24% this week and are up over the past 13 weeks, a positive bet on the largest world economy.
SEE MOOSECALLS PDF FOR FULL DETAILS
#1. Gold Bullion (GLD) Pushes Ever Higher--
GLD rose 8.7% this week, following last week’s 1.6% gain, leaving it ranked #1 globally and more attractive than cash. Most recently, GLD is up 13.6% for the quarter, up 79.2% for the year, and very bullish.
#2. Latin America 40 (ILF) Surges On--
ILF rose 7.7% this week, following last week’s 2.0% gain, leaving it ranked #2 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 28.3% for the quarter, up 69.4% for the year, and very bullish.
#3. Asia-Pacific ex-Japan (AAXJ) Ploughs Higher— AAXJ was up 1.4% this week, following last week’s 1.2% gain, leaving it ranked #3 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 8.9% for the quarter, up 42.4% for the year, and very bullish.
#4. US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) Dip From Overbought-- IWM fell -0.4% this week, following last week’s 2.1% gain, leaving it ranked #4 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 7.1% for the quarter, up 16.8% for the year, and very bullish.
#5. Japanese Stocks (EWJ) Fall Amid Bond Uncertainty--
EWJ fell -1.1% this week, following last week’s 1.0% gain, leaving it ranked #5 globally and more attractive than cash. Japan is up 9.2% for the quarter, up 36.8% for the year, and very bullish.
#6. US Large-Cap Stocks (SPY) Recover Most of Their “Davos Dip”--
SPY fell 0.4% this week, following last week’s -0.4% loss, leaving it ranked #6 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 3.3% for the quarter and up 15.1% for the year. US equity sector momentum is positive, and breath stays broad and steady-- 89% of our sectors are buy or hold (L89%). “Buys” include Gold Miners, Semiconductors, Biotech, Bitcoin, and Technology. “Avoids” include REITs, Healthcare Providers, Consumer Staples, Food & Beverage
#7. European Large-Cap Stocks (IEV) Slows As Davos Opens, Posts High At the End—
IEV rose 0.7% this week, following last week’s 0.5% gain, leaving it ranked #7 globally and more attractive than cash. Europe is up 9.1% for the quarter and up 34.7% for the year and very bullish.
#8. US Long Treasury Bonds (EDV) Recover “Davos Dip—
”EDV rose 0.2% this week, following last week’s 0.0% flat showing, leaving it ranked #8 globally and more attractive than cash. Long bonds are down 5.4% for the quarter and -0.3% for the year and bearish.
#9. Cash& Income Yields Up Again—
The US Treasury 10-year yield finished the week up 1 tick at 4.24%, and the 3-month yield was up 7 at 3.58%, leaving the yield curve slightly flatter but still positively sloped at 66 basis points.
Commodities (CRB Index) Rally as Dollar Weakens--
A very bullish CRB rose 4.4% this week after last week’s 1.1% gain. Commodity prices are up 9.0% for the quarter and up 8.2% for the year. Oil prices (USO) also rose (3.2%) this week, following last week’s 1.2% gain, but are currently very bearish.
US Dollar Tanks: UUP fell 1.9% this week, following last week’s 0.4% gain. It is currently very bearish—down 3.1% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 8.4% in the last year (52 weeks).
SEE MOOSECALLS PDF FOR FULL DETAILS
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