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Decision Moose

Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies

MOOSEMODELS--JAN02.2026

Global Index Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

Index Moose is an ETF-based momentum model that compares the relative strength of stocks in the US (SPY, IWM), Emerging markets (EEM), Developed offshore markets (EFA), Short & Long US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the best place to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. Lately, performance has been lagging. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.

US Equity Strategy Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose is an ETF-based equity-only momentum model. It compares two diversified buy-and-hold portfolios, aggressive (AOA) and moderate (AOM) and cash (SHY) with seven of the most popular "smart beta" US equity strategies. They include Growth (IUSG), Value (IUSV), Momentum (MTUM), Equal Weight (RSP), High Dividend (VYM), Low Volatility (SPLV), and Fundamentals. Lately, performance has been solid versus benchmark (SPY). A daily signal, it is provided once a week in the newsletter as a guideline only.

TSP Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

TSP Moose

The Thrift Savings Plan is for Federal employees only and not available to the general public. TSP Moose is a Thrift Savings Plan momentum model that compares the five TSP index funds-- cash (G), fixed income (F), US large-caps (C), US small-caps (S), and International stocks (I) with with four globally diversified "Lifetime" portfolios-- very aggressive (L2050), aggressive (L2040) moderate (L2030) and conservative (L Income). The model's daily signal is provided once a week in the newsletter as a guideline only.

INVESTMENT MODELS: SIGNALS AND YTD PERFORMANCE

INDEX MOOSE SIGNAL

US EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

HOLD Gold (GLD)

since 8/28/2025

US EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

HOLD US GROWTH (IUSG)

since 12/5/2025

TSP MOOSE SIGNAL

US EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

HOLD US LARGE CAPS (Fund C)

since 12/3/2025

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

AGGRESSIVE buy and hold (AOA)

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

AGGRESSIVE buy and hold (AOA)

TSP B&H PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

AGGRESSIVE buy-and-hold (L2060)

INDEX MOOSE vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

YEAR TO DATE (2025)

1. Index Moose (+59%)

2. AOA (+18%)

3. AOM (+10%)

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

YEAR TO DATE (2025)

1. AOA (+18%)

2. US Equity Benchmark: SPY (+14%)

3. AOM (+10%)

4. US Equity Strategy (+8%)

TSP MOOSE vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

TSP MOOSE vs B&H

YEAR TO DATE (2025)

1. L2060 (+23%)

2. L2050 (+20%)

3. L2040 (+18%)

4. L2030 (+16%)

5. TSP Moose (+15%)

US EQUITY STRATEGY (USES) MODEL

USES Model

The US Equity Strategy model uses our momentum methodology.to compare and ranks 7 alternative US equity strategies (represented by the most popular smart-beta ETFs based on volume and capitalization) and 2 global asset allocation strategies . The 7 US equity strategies include US growth, US value, US momentum, US low volatility, US high dividend, US fundamentals, and US equal weight. The 2 global asset allocation strategies are moderate and aggressive. The table below compares the relative strength of each of the 9 strategies to a SPY benchmark and a SHY cash baseline. The table below provides a recent switch history.

NOTE: All of the strategies in this model are derivative of and highly correlated to the S&P. When the S&P is bearish, hits a stop-loss, or gives some other sell signal, adopting a strategy that is highly correlated to it is not recommended. Both SPY and the chosen ETF must be technically positive (TS>0) or better and working on a buy-stop to initiate a switch.

USES Model vs Buy-and-Hold

Economic, financial and political conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Massive Fed involvement in the markets, along with fiscal stimulus leads to financial engineering and market stability. That generally favors buy-and-hold (B&H) and US equity timing. As a result, US Equity Strategy timing has outperformed in seven of the last nine years. While some form of timing has thus outperformed B&H in most years, that is not to say its success will continue should political and economic conditions change measurably in the future.

USES Model: This Year & Week

THIS YEAR: US Stocks struggled in January, backed off in March, plummeted to a V-bottom in April and rebounded by May. They are bullish but have lagged offshore equities and gold throughout, due to a weaker Dollar caused by US tariffs. Now, with the first rate cut in the books, more rate cuts to come, US tariffs, and trillions in US federal deficit spending continuing through December (absent recissions), equities and hard assets appear to have solid future prospects.

THIS WEEK: *Most of the US Equity Strategy funds are working off buy-stops this week, including SPY, initiating a switch back into Growth from money market cash on 12/5/25. Among US stock strategies, US Growth still leads in confidence index, rate of change, and PMO.

THIS was the 1st MIXED-Risk week after one Risk-ON week. Foreign Stocks UP, US Stocks Down, US Bonds DOWN, Gold DOWN.

Thrift savings Plan (TSP) MODEL

TSP Model

The Thrift Savings Plan, or TSP, is the government’s 401K-style retirement plan. Millions of federal employees are invested in it, including several life-long friends here in the capital region. The TSP model uses our momentum methodology.to compare and rank the closed-end funds in the Plan, which is only available to current or prior Federal employees. The individual fund selections include US large caps, small caps, international equities, Bonds, Short-term income. The diversified B&H portfolios include Maximum income, and several dated Lifetime choices. The further out the date the more aggressive the allocation.

TSP Model

TSP THIS YEAR: Weak US stocks through January put the TSP model into cash in February helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting cash in late April for International stocks as foreign markets improved on the weaker Dollar has turned out to be the only switch since. With the first Fed rate cut (9/18) in the books and trillions in federal deficit spending continuing through December (absent recissions), equities appear to have solid future prospects.

TSP RECOMMENDATION: The TSP Timing Model is lagging Buy-and-Hold Lifetime Funds in 2025. The most aggressive Lifetime portfolios (2060-75) are outperforming both the TSP model and the more conservative portfolios.

THIS was the 1st MIXED-Risk week after one Risk-ON week. Foreign Stocks UP, US Stocks Down, US Bonds DOWN, Gold DOWN.

THIS WEEK: TSP Moose HOLDS Large caps (Fund C) via BS on 12/3/25 (@105.71).

*All of the TSP funds with an equity component are working off buy-stops this week, initiating a switch to equities. Fund C holds the TSP Model’s #1 spot per confidence index, price momentum, and technical strength. All of the funds in the TSP universe are working off buy-stops this week. PMO for S has turned negative and it lags Funds C and I in technical strength, RSI and PMO which are more current indicators (0-20 days) than ROC and CI% (130-155 days). Nofunds in the model are overbought or oversold.

TSP PRICE ACTION:

Fund I continues to lead performance year-to-date, over 52 weeks and over 39-weeks. Fund C, however, leads over 26 weeks and 13 weeks with Fund S a close second. The models are more or less based on six-month momentum, so Fund C has the best answer to the question “what have you done for me lately?”

INDEX MODEL

Index Moose uses momentum to rank US and international equities, long bonds, cash and gold. It was originally developed in 1992 as a basis for a newsletter on global financial markets. Switches have been published live on the internet since October 1996. Index Moose devotes 100% of the portfolio to the #1 ranked fund.

INDEX MODEL: THIS YEAR & WEEK

THIS was the 1st MIXED-Risk week after one Risk-ON week. Foreign Stocks UP, US Stocks Down, US Bonds DOWN, Gold DOWN.

Index Model is holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.

The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. Index Moose HOLDS #3 Gold (GLD) via buy-stop since 8/28/25. Severely overbought, gold corrected about 11% on hawkish Fed-speak in November, never triggering a stop-loss.

This week, Emerging markets (EEM) and US small caps (IWM) have both overtaken gold in the primary momentum metric (CI%). Gold continues to lead in technical strength, PMO, and quarterly performance.

THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut on 9/18. With rate cuts, and trillions in US federal deficit spending, hard assets and gold appear to have solid future prospects.

Decision Moose

Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies

MOOSEMODELS--JAN02.2026

Global Index Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

TSP Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

TSP Moose

INVESTMENT MODELS: SIGNALS AND YTD PERFORMANCE

INDEX MOOSE SIGNAL

US EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

US EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

US EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

US EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

US EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

TSP MOOSE SIGNAL

US EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

TSP B&H PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

INDEX MOOSE vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

TSP MOOSE vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

TSP MOOSE vs B&H

PERFORMANCE: ETF MARKET TIMING vs buy-and-hold

US EQUITY STRATEGY (USES) MODEL

USES Model

USES Model vs Buy-and-Hold

USES Model: This Year & Week

USES MODEL: STRATEGY RANKS

USES MODEL: STRATEGY PERFORMANCE

USES MODEL: RECENT SWITCH HISTORY

PERFORMANCE: TSP MARKET TIMING vs Lifetime Funds

Thrift savings Plan (TSP) MODEL

TSP Model

TSP Model

TSP MODEL: MOMENTUM Rankings

TSP MODEL: COMPONENT PERFORMANCE

TSP MODEL: RECENT SWITCH HISTORY

INDEX MODEL

INDEX MODEL

INDEX MODEL: THIS YEAR & WEEK

INDEX MODEL: RANKINGS

INDEX MODEL: RECENT SWITCH HISTORY

INDEX MODEL: SWITCH HISTORY: 1996-2025