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Decision Moose

Investment newsletter: stock market investment strategies

MOOSEMODELS--JAN17.2025

Global Index Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

Index Moose is an ETF-based momentum model that compares the relative strength of stocks in the US (SPY, IWM), Emerging markets (EEM), Developed offshore markets (EFA), Short & Long US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the best place to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. Lately, performance has been lagging. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.

US Equity Strategy Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose is an ETF-based equity-only momentum model. It compares two diversified buy-and-hold portfolios, aggressive (AOA) and moderate (AOM) and cash (SHY) with seven of the most popular "smart beta" US equity strategies. They include Growth (IUSG), Value (IUSV), Momentum (MTUM), Equal Weight (RSP), High Dividend (VYM), Low Volatility (SPLV), and Fundamentals. Lately, performance has been solid versus benchmark (SPY). A daily signal, it is provided once a week in the newsletter as a guideline only.

TSP Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

TSP Moose

The Thrift Savings Plan is for Federal employees only and not available to the general public. TSP Moose is a Thrift Savings Plan momentum model that compares the five TSP index funds-- cash (G), fixed income (F), US large-caps (C), US small-caps (S), and International stocks (I) with with four globally diversified "Lifetime" portfolios-- very aggressive (L2050), aggressive (L2040) moderate (L2030) and conservative (L Income). The model's daily signal is provided once a week in the newsletter as a guideline only.

LATEST SIGNALS AND YTD PERFORMANCE

INDEX MOOSE SIGNAL

EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

HOLD Gold (GLD)

since 1/8/2025

EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

HOLD Cash (MMF)

since 1/10/2025

TSP MOOSE SIGNAL

EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

HOLD Cash (Fund G)

since 1/10/2025

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

AGGRESSIVE buy and hold (AOA)*

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

AGGRESSIVE buy and hold (AOA)*

TSP B&H PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

AGGRESSIVE buy-and-hold (L2060)*

INDEX MOOSE vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

YEAR TO DATE (2025)

1. Index Moose (+2.0%)

2. AOA (+1.3%)

3. AOM (+0.6%)

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

YEAR TO DATE (2025)

1. US Equity Benchmark (SPY) (+2.0%)

2. AOA (+1.3%)

3. AOM (+0.6%)

4. US Equity Strategy (-0.5%)

TSP MOOSE vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

TSP MOOSE vs B&H

YEAR TO DATE (2025)

1. L2060 (+2.0%)

2. L2050 (+1.7%)

3. L2040 (+1.5%)

4. L2030 (+1.3%)

5. TSP Moose (-0.1%)

US EQUITY STRATEGY (USES) MODEL

USES Model

The US Equity Strategy model uses our momentum methodology.to compare and ranks 7 alternative US equity strategies (represented by the most popular smart-beta ETFs based on volume and capitalization) and 2 global asset allocation strategies . The 7 US equity strategies include US growth, US value, US momentum, US low volatility, US high dividend, US fundamentals, and US equal weight. The 2 global asset allocation strategies are moderate and aggressive. The table below compares the relative strength of each of the 9 strategies to a SPY benchmark and a SHY cash baseline. The table below provides a recent switch history.

NOTE: All of the strategies in this model are derivative of and highly correlated to the S&P. When the S&P is bearish, hits a stop-loss, or gives some other sell signal, adopting a strategy that is highly correlated to it is not recommended. Both SPY and the chosen ETF must be technically positive (TS>0) or better and working on a buy-stop to initiate a switch.

USES Model vs Buy-and-Hold

Economic, financial and political conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Massive Fed involvement in the markets, along with fiscal stimulus leads to financial engineering and market stability. That generally favors buy-and-hold (B&H) and US equity timing. As a result, US Equity Strategy timing has outperformed in seven of the last nine years. While some form of timing has thus outperformed B&H in most years, that is not to say its success will continue should political and economic conditions change measurably in the future.

USES Model: This year

This Year: US Stocks are bullish entering 2025 while bonds are bearish with three Fed rate cuts keeping inflation fears alive. Trillions in federal deficit spending continues—now through March—and the Fed is not expected to cut rates in January.

The US Equity Strategy (USES) Model is beating the S&P500 benchmark and outperforming Buy-and-Hold in early 2025. The Index Model is beating aggressive B&H. For buy and hold investors: Aggressive is outperforming more moderate diversifications.

USES Model: This Week

US equities are outperforming offshore stocks. Among US stock strategies, US Growth is best over 1, 3, and 5 years and outperforms the S&P.

This week: Strategy Moose HOLDS Cash 1/10/25 as IUSG and SPY both triggered a *stop-loss as predicted, Since the Federal money spigot remains wide open, however, it may soon reverse as a false signal.

It was the 1st RISK-ON week after 2 risk-off: Stocks UP, Bonds UP and Gold UP.

Thrift savings Plan (TSP) MODEL

TSP Model

The Thrift Savings Plan, or TSP, is the government’s 401K-style retirement plan. Millions of federal employees are invested in it, including several life-long friends here in the capital region. The TSP model uses our momentum methodology.to compare and rank the closed-end funds in the Plan, which is only available to current or prior Federal employees. The individual fund selections include US large caps, small caps, international equities, Bonds, Short-term income. The diversified B&H portfolios include Maximum income, and several dated Lifetime choices. The further out the date the more aggressive the allocation.

TSP Model: This Year

TSP Model is outperforming Buy-and-Hold in 2025.

TSP Model: This Week

TSP This week: TSP Moose holds cash (Fund G) since 1/10/25 after large-caps (Fund C) triggered a stop loss*. The Federal money spigot remains wide open, and it could be a false signal,

It was the 1st RISK-ON week after 2 risk-off: Stocks UP, Bonds UP and Gold UP.

INDEX MODEL

Index Moose uses momentum to rank US and international equities, long bonds, cash and gold. It was originally developed in 1992 as a basis for a newsletter on global financial markets. Switches have been published live on the internet since October 1996. Index Moose devotes 100% of the portfolio to the #1 ranked fund.

INDEX MODEL: THIS YEAR

The Index timing model is currently out-performing aggressive (AOA) and moderate (AOM) diversified portfolios.

INDEX MODEL: THIS WEEK

The Index HOLDS Gold (GLD) on 1/10/25 via stop-loss in SPY as predicted, Since the Federal money spigot remains wide open.

It was the 1st RISK-ON week after 2 risk-off: Stocks UP, Bonds UP and Gold UP.

Decision Moose

Investment newsletter: stock market investment strategies

MOOSEMODELS--JAN17.2025

Global Index Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

TSP Moose

US Equity Strategy Moose

TSP Moose

LATEST SIGNALS AND YTD PERFORMANCE

INDEX MOOSE SIGNAL

EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

TSP MOOSE SIGNAL

EQUITY STRATEGY SIGNAL

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

TSP B&H PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

BUY & HOLD PREFERENCE

INDEX MOOSE vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

TSP MOOSE vs B&H

EQUITY STRATEGY vs B&H

TSP MOOSE vs B&H

PERFORMANCE: ETF MARKET TIMING vs buy-and-hold

US EQUITY STRATEGY (USES) MODEL

USES Model

USES Model vs Buy-and-Hold

USES Model: This year

USES Model: This Week

USES MODEL: STRATEGY RANKS

USES MODEL: RECENT SWITCH HISTORY

PERFORMANCE: TSP MARKET TIMING vs Lifetime Funds

Thrift savings Plan (TSP) MODEL

TSP Model

TSP Model: This Year

TSP Model: This Week

TSP MODEL: Rankings

TSP MODEL: RECENT SWITCH HISTORY

INDEX MODEL

INDEX MODEL

INDEX MODEL: THIS YEAR

INDEX MODEL: THIS WEEK

INDEX MODEL: RANK

INDEX MODEL: RECENT SWITCH HISTORY

INDEX MODEL: SWITCH HISTORY: 1996-2024