FOREIGN Equities & GOLD
LAST YEAR: The USES Model out-performed the S&P and all B&H. The Index Model lagged the S&P benchmark and Aggressive B&H.
THIS YEAR: Gold was the best performer from January through mid-May when it triggered a stop-loss but reverted after a month. Stocks plummeted to a V-bottom in April but rebounded by May led by offshore equities. US Bonds also rallied until falling to a V-bottom in April. The rebound has been weaker than that in equities. The first Fed rate cut is now likely in September. Trillions in federal deficit spending continues now through September. Absent future recissions, deficits in FY 2026 are also expected.
THIS WEEK: For private investors the Index Model is outperforming the S&P and diversified B&H in 2025. The USES model is LAGGING B&H and the S&P.
It was the 1st MIXED-Risk week after a Risk-OFF week: US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN, and Gold DOWN.
TSP: AGGRESSIVE RISK RECOVERS
TSP THIS YEAR: Stocks backed off in March, plummeted to a V-bottom in April and rebounded by May led by offshore equities. US Bonds also rallied until falling to a V-bottom in April. The rebound has been weaker than that in equities. The first Fed rate cut is now not likely until September. Trillions in federal deficit spending continues now through September. Absent future recissions, deficits in FY 2026 are also expected.
TSP THIS WEEK: The Thrift Savings Plan timing model is competitive with most Lifetime Strategies. For buy-and-hold investors the more aggressive Lifetime portfolios began outperforming the more moderate ones as of May.
It was the 1st MIXED-Risk week after a Risk-OFF week: US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN, and Gold DOWN.