GOLD SLOWS, Equities IMPROVE
LAST YEAR: The USES Model out-performed the S&P and all B&H. The Index Model lagged the S&P benchmark and Aggressive B&H.
THIS YEAR: Gold has been the best performer from January through April. Stocks backed off in March, plummeted to a V-bottom in April and rebounded by May led by offshore equities. US Bonds also rallied until falling to a V-bottom in April. The rebound has been weaker than that in equities. The first Fed rate cut is now not likely until July. Trillions in federal deficit spending continues now through September, while DOGE is identifying billions in waste, leaving the exact amount of Federal expenditure unknown.
THIS WEEK: For private investors the Index Model is outperforming the S&P and diversified B&H in 2025. The USES model is beating aggressive B&H and outperforming the S&P.
It was the 2nd consecutive Risk-ON week:
Stocks UP, Bonds DOWN, and Gold DOWN.
TSP: MODERATE RISK EXCELS
TSP THIS YEAR: Stocks backed off in March, plummeted to a V-bottom in April and rebounded by May led by offshore equities. US Bonds also rallied until falling to a V-bottom in April. The rebound has been weaker than that in equities. The first Fed rate cut is now not likely until July. Trillions in federal deficit spending continues now through September, while DOGE is identifying billions in waste, leaving the exact amount of Federal expenditure unknown.
TSP THIS WEEK: The Thrift Savings Plan timing model is slightly under-performing all Lifetime Strategies. For buy-and-hold investors the more moderate Lifetime portfolios are now outperforming the more aggressive ones.
It was the 2nd consecutive Risk-ON week:
Stocks UP, Bonds DOWN, and Gold DOWN.