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Decision Moose

Decision MooseDecision MooseDecision Moose

investment newsletter & insight

investment newsletter & insightinvestment newsletter & insight

WHAT'S WORKING AS OF MAR17.2023?

Moderate Buy & Hold on Top

This week:   Stocks and bonds were “on sale” in early 2023. Stocks opened firm and bonds were up too, putting diversified buy-and-hold on top in January. In February, however, inflation worries returned, and the rallies in stocks and bonds stalled ahead of a likely recession by Fall, Stop-losses were triggered in all three models in late February signaling a shift to cash.
                                                   

                                                            2023        2022       2021          2020        2019         2018        2017       2016 Moderate G&I (AOM)           2.5%    -16.4%          5.3%          7.7%       19.5%      -9.9%       14.1%       5.3%          

Index Moose                                2.1%    -16.3%       11.7%       13.2%        -6.5%        5.1%         9.0%      -6.0%  

SPY Benchmark                         2.0%     -19.5%

Aggressive G&I (AOA)           1.9%     -17.9%      13.5%        10.7%       12.5%      -6.2%         8.0%       3.5%     

US Equity Moose                       0.6%      -7.0%        22.2%       20.9%       23.6%        1.2%       28.5%     -5.6%      


TSP Performance: TSP MOOSE Leads in 2023

Government  employees invested in the Thrift Savings Plan have numerous options,  but the basic decision is whether to time the market or take a  diversified buy and hold approach. Market timing outperformed all  diversified buy-and-hold "Lifestyle" options in four of the last six years.  Economic  and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success.  Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently  working. See the newsletter for more.


                                                                                      2023        2022          2021          2020          2019          2018          2017        

TSP Moose                                                         +3.0%        -3.4%        +13.3%     +21.8%     +14.9%     +6.5%    +21.0%

TSP Moderate G&I (L2030)                      +2.6%     -10.3%        +12.4%     +11.3%     +17.6%      -3.6%      +14.5%

TSP Aggressive Growth (L2060)           +2.2%     -17.6%        +19.9%          new 

TSP Growth  (L2050)                                    +2.1%     -15.0%        +16.3%     +14.8%     +23.3%     -6.0%        +18.8% 

TSP Growth & Income  (L2040)              +2.0%     -12.9%       +14.5%     +13.2%     +20.7%      -4.9%       +16.8% 




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