Buy & Hold vs. Market Timing: Aggressive B&H Down Least in 2022
Market timing (active) or diversified buy-and-hold (passive) are the two primary strategic options. Our US Equity timing model, which has outperformed for four of the last five years including 2021, is behind to open 2022, however. Economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.
YTD22 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016
Moderate G&I (AOM) -3.1% 5.3% 7.7% 19.5% -9.9% 14.1% 5.3% (B&H)
Index Moose -4.8% 11.7% 13.2% -6.5% 5.1% 9.0% -6.0% (Timing)
Aggressive G&I (AOA) -4.8% 13.5% 10.7% 12.5% -6.2% 8.0% 3.5% (B&H)
US Strategy Moose -6.3% 22.2% 20.9% 23.6% 1.2% 28.5% -5.6% (Timing)
Recent Performance: TSP Lifetime (B&H) vs. TSP Moose (Timing)
Government employees invested in the Thrift Savings Plan have numerous options, but the basic decision is whether to time the market or take a diversified buy and hold approach. Market timing outperformed all diversified buy-and-hold "Lifestyle" options in three of the last five years, but not last year, nor to start 2022. Economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.
YTD22 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
TSP Moderate G&I (L2030) -4.1% +12.4% +11.3% +17.6% -3.6% +14.5%
TSP Moose -4.8% +13.3% +21.8% +14.9% +6.5% +21.0%
TSP Growth & Income (L2040) -5.0% +14.5% +13.2% +20.7% -4.9% +16.8%
TSP Growth (L2050) -5.7% +16.3% +14.8% +23.3% -6.0% +18.8%
TSP Aggressive Growth (L2060) -6.7% +19.9% new
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