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Buy & Hold vs. Market Timing: Strategy Moose & Index Moose Outperforming B&H
Market timing (active) or diversified buy-and-hold (passive) are the two primary strategic options In three of the last four years, global buy-and-hold has outperformed our global timing model, Index Moose. In 2021, however, Index Moose is beating B&H. Our US Equity timing model, which has outperformed for three of the last four years including 2020, is slightly behind this week (02/26), however. Economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.
YTD21 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016
Index Moose +12.5% +13.2% -6.5% +5.1% +9.0% -6.0% US Equity Timing
US Equity Strategy Moose +11.9% +20.9% +21.1% +1.2% +28.5% -5.6% Global Timing
Aggressive G&I (AOA) +9.5% +10.7% +12.5% -6.2% +8.1% +3.5% Global B&H
Moderate G&I (AOM) +3.6% +7.7% +19.5% -9.9% +14.1% +5.3% Global B&H
Recent Performance: TSP Lifetime (B&H) vs. TSP Moose (Timing)
Government employees invested in the Thrift Savings Plan have numerous options, but the basic decision is whether to time the market or take a diversified buy and hold approach. Market timing outperformed all diversified buy-and-hold "Lifestyle" options in three of the last four years, and was doing it again year-to-date in 2021 until this week. It under-performed in 2019, however, Economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.
YTD21 2020 2019 2018 2017
TSP Aggressive Growth (L2060) +13.8% new
TSP Growth (L2050) +11.3% +14.8% +23.3% -6.0% +18.8% B&H
TSP Growth & Income (L2040) +10.0% +13.2% +20.7% -4.9% +16.8% B&H
TSP Moose +8.9% +21.8% +14.9% +6.5% +21.0% Timing
TSP Moderate G&I (L2030) +8.6% +11.3% +17.6% -3.6% +14.5% B&H
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