US Equity Timing Model Tops S&P
This Year: Stocks and gold are bullish through September while bonds are slipping after first Fed rate cut. On the plus side, trillions in federal deficit spending continues-- probably past the election-- and the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates in November. On the negative side, several economic indicators are still predicting recession.
This week: Strategy Moose continues to outperform the S&P as well as diversified B&H.
It was the 2nd MIXED-risk week after two risk-ON weeks. Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN and Gold FLAT.
2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016
US Equity Moose +22.3% 12.2% -7.0% 22.2% 20.9% 23.6% 1.2% 28.5% -5.6%
SPY Benchmark +20.5% 24.3% -19.5%
Aggressive G&I (AOA) +13.5% 15.6% -17.9% 13.5% 10.7% 12.5% -6.2% 8.0% 3.5%
Moderate G&I (AOM) +7.5% 9.2% -16.4% 5.3% 7.7% 19.5% -9.9% 14.1% 5.3%
Index Moose +7.3% 3.6% -16.3% 11.7% 13.2% -6.5% 5.1% 9.0% -6.0%
TSP 2060 (Max Aggressive) Outperforms
Government employees invested in the Thrift Savings Plan have numerous options, but the basic decision is whether to time the market or take a diversified buy and hold approach. There is no right or wrong answer for everyone, and economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.
This Year: Stocks are bullish through September while bonds are slipping after first Fed rate cut. On the plus side, trillions in federal deficit spending continues-- probably past the election-- and the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates in November. On the negative side, several economic indicators are still predicting recession.
This week: TSP Moose lags Aggressive B&H, outperforms conservative.
It was the 2nd MIXED-risk week after two risk-ON weeks. Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN and Gold FLAT.
2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
TSP Agg Growth (L2060) +16.8% +23.3% -15.9% +19.9% new
TSP Moose +14.5% +16.5% -3.4% +13.3% +21.8% +14.9% +6.5% +21.0%
TSP Growth (L2050) +14.4% +20.0% -13.4% +16.3% +14.8% +23.3% -6.0% +18.8%
TSP G&I (L2040) +13.1% +18.1% -11.4% +14.5% +13.2% +20.7% -4.9% +16.8%
TSP Mod G&I (L2030) +11.5% +16.6% -9.0% +12.4% +11.3% +17.6% -3.6% +14.5%
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