Economists had forecasted a gain of 53,000 jobs in August, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in with 162,000 or three times the consensus estimate. The unemployment rate (+4.1%) was in line with prior but beat consensus. Average workweek (34.4) was unchanged, but average Hourly Earnings (+0.3%) beat consensus and prior. The August total also came in above the average monthly gain of 31,000 over the prior 12 months, according to the BLS.
Revisions to prior months added to the positive picture: June payrolls were revised up by 11,000 to 31,000, and July was revised to a gain of 21,000 from an initially reported loss of 23,000, putting combined employment in those two months 55,000 higher than previously reported.
It was enough to make a BLS cynic wonder if Joe Biden was back in the White House. (Biden’s BLS infamously exaggerated new jobs by a million or so in the year leading up to the ’24 election, but the even bigger mistake was that the fakery came out before the vote.) Last week, BLS lowered US job estimates again, but by a far more respectable 79K for Trump’s first year, the 12 months through March 2026.
Food services and drinking places led job creation in August, adding 59,000 positions — well above the sector's 12-month average monthly gain of 12,000. Local government education added 42,000 jobs, largely offsetting a decrease in the prior month. Manufacturing continued a recent upward trend, adding 16,000 jobs, with gains in machinery manufacturing and fabricated metal products. Health care added 13,000 jobs, though at a slower pace than its 12-month average of 32,000 per month.
The information industry was the month's notable weak spot, shedding 23,000 jobs. Losses were spread across computing infrastructure and data processing, publishing, and broadcasting and content providers. Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm payroll employees rose 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $37.75 in August. Over the past year, wages are up 3.1 percent. The average workweek edged up 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.
On the household survey side, the labor force participation rate edged up to 61.6 percent, though it remains 0.5 percentage point below its January level. The number of people working part time for economic reasons fell by 414,000 to 4.4 million.
The focus now shifts to the upcoming CPI inflation figures ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision in less than two weeks. The jobs data seemed to reinforce what top Fed policymakers have been saying about the health of the labor market and a US economy at ‘full employment”. Rate cuts are not a consideration. Rate hikes may be, given Iranian oil pressures, but that is a supply-side inflation issue ill-suited to monetary policy that primarily acts on demand. Timing is everything.
(Prepared with Grok and Chat GPT AI assistance and edited by a human.)
Copyright © 2026 Decision Moose - All Rights Reserved.