If one believes the pollsters, the recent US ceasefire agreement (Islamabad MOU, 6/17/26) with the Islamic Republic is considered the worst thing since weevil-infested, moldy, unsliced bread. It seems there is something for everyone to complain about, and they are. I
The deal has put President Trump's approval rating in the tank. That, of course, is part and parcel of "the art of the deal". Nobody gets everything they want.
The MOU's immediate goals are ceasefire enforcement, reopening the Strait of Hormuz (toll-free for 60 days), lifting the US naval blockade, oil export waivers, and access to frozen Iranian assets.
Primary negotiations: Ending Iran’s nuclear weapons program (especially highly enriched uranium), full sanctions relief, reconstruction funding (~$300 billion plan), and regional issues like Lebanon. Early talks in Switzerland (June 21–22) produced a roadmap, working groups, and modest progress (e.g., IAEA inspectors returning).
Key Challenges include very ambitious 60-day timeline. Experts call a full deal in 60 days unrealistic due to complex issues such as Nuclear limits, a sanctions schedule, curbing proxies in Lebanon, and long-term control of the Strait of Hormuz. Deep distrust is also an issue. Iran benefits from early concessions and a “status quo” freeze on new US sanctions or military moves. It is perceived as a nation with a less than stellar past over the last 50 years when it comes to keeping its word.
This week (a few days after signing) Iran attacked Bahrain and Kuwait with missiles and drones, hitting a couple of ships in the Strait as well (neither sunk, no fatalities). The US responded with airstrikes on coastal installations and weapons storage facilities. We’re only about 1–2 weeks in, but that is hardly a fortuitous start.
History can be unkind to deal-makers. British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain claimed to have secured “Peace for our time” with his 1938 Munich deal with Adolph Hitler. A year later World War II broke out when Hitler invaded Poland and Chamberlain got dumped for Winston “we will never surrender” Churchill.
Short-term, MOU progress may be possible on technical issues, but a comprehensive agreement will likely need extensions and patience. Success hinges on whether both sides prefer compromise over returning to conflict. The situation remains fragile but is moving forward for now. It won’t hurt to give it some time. Avoiding US casualties on the ground in Iran is a worthwhile objective-- but only if it never comes at the expense of millions of American casualties from a dirty bomb.
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