MooseCalls — Weekly Market Report
Week of Oct 30, 2026 — MIXED Risk
This Week: Bond Rally & Equity Rotation Continue
Bond Rally & Equity Rotation Continue
Fed week came and went without a monetary policy change, but odds still favor a rate hike in six weeks. US Long T-bonds (+0.4%) rallied for a fourth week aided by WTI crude prices pushing to $104 and Brent crude to $118 as December global rate hike expectations persist. The 10-yr yield dropped to 4.93%, and the cash yield slipped to 3.97%, keeping the 3m-10y yield curve at 96 basis points. US equity investors have been rotating out of the mega-cap high-flyers and into small value for a couple of weeks. For a second week, small caps (+1.3%) improved while large-caps (-0.6%) retreated. Among S&P strategies Value, High Dividend, Low Volatility and Equal Value have replaced Momentum and Growth as top choices. The Dollar (+0.1%) again rose fractionally, contributing to weakness in gold (-3.0%)., commodities (-1.4%) and the oil complex (-0.4%). Offshore, stocks were mixed but generally lower. Apart from a rebound in Europe (+1.4%), Latin American equities (-14.8%) tanked, Japan (-1.3%) fell, and Asia-Pacific (-0.2%) pulled back. The models are on hold this week pending stop-loss readings on SPY.
Global Outlook
POSITIVE (3 of 4, UP this week)
The Baltic Dry Index is down on the quarter, but oil and copper prices and 10Y Treasury yield are higher, making the outlook positive as of 10/30/26.
US Inflation
September PCE inflation slightly warmer. WTI oil prices up to $104, Brent to $118. Global inflation per the Fed Check (84) still warrants tightening.
US Economy
Q3 GDP, Optimism, Durable Orders & Spending Strong, New Home Sales Weaker. Yield curve positive and steady this week. Recession chances a year out shrinking and minimal. Money market system healthy per SOFR. Above average US growth prospects. GDP Now estimate (Q4) at 3.2% as of 10/29.
Federal Reserve
Meeting this week, no policy change. 1st rate hike since 12/25 rate cut five weeks ago. Fed Check (84) remains hawkish. The Fed's balance sheet currently stands at $6.74 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.75-4.00%. At least one more Fed rate HIKE (73%) is likely by December.
Investment Strategies
There are no model switches this week.
Regional Momentum Ranking: US Large-caps (SPY) on Top
As of Oct 30, 2026. CI% = Composite Index. TS+ = Technical Strength.
| Rank | CI% | Fund | TS+ | READ | RSI | PMO | +/- | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% | US Large-caps (SPY) | 70% | bullish | 40.4 | 0.09 | ▲ | deteriorating |
| 2 | 71% | Japan (EWJ) | 42% | neutral | 34.4 | -0.57 | ▼ | deteriorating |
| 3 | 61% | Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AAXJ) | 22% | bearish | 35.8 | -1.99 | ▼ | deteriorating |
| 4 | 56% | US Small-caps (IWM) | 31% | bearish | 49.5 | -0.84 | ▼ | improving |
| 5 | 41% | Latin America (ILF) | 40% | bearish | 28.0 | -0.72 | ▼ | deteriorating |
| 6 | 18% | Short US Income (SGOV) | 93% | very bullish | 81.8 | 0.14 | ▲ | deteriorating |
| 7 | 11% | Europe (IEV) | 32% | bearish | 51.2 | -0.56 | ▼ | improving |
| 8 | -103% | Very Long US Bonds (EDV) | 45% | neutral | 61.6 | 0.50 | ▲ | improving |
| 9 | -174% | Gold Bullion (GLD) | 6% | very bearish | 30.3 | -1.79 | ▼ | deteriorating |
| Market Context | ||||||||
| — | US Dollar | 98% | very bullish | 56.7 | 0.61 | ▲ | deteriorating | |
| — | Commodities | 108% | very bullish | 56.8 | 1.75 | ▲ | deteriorating | |
| — | US Oil | 128% | very bullish | 67.0 | 4.88 | ▲ | improving | |
| — | Ryan/CRB | 84% | HIKE RATES | ▲ | ||||
| — | Volatility | 18.7 | normal | |||||
Weekly Regional Summary
Oct 30, 2026
US LARGE-CAPS Touch 2nd Stop-loss-- — SPY
SPY fell 0.6% this week, after losing 0.4% last week. That left it bullish and ranked #1 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 5.7% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 12.0% for the year (52 weeks).
JAPAN Gaps Lower-- — EWJ
EWJ fell 1.3% this week, after losing 0.8% last week. That left it neutral and ranked #2 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is down 0.4% for the quarter (13 weeks), but up 20.9% for the year (52 weeks).
ASIA-PACIFIC Retests 200-day & Fails, 2.0-- — AAXJ
AAXJ fell 0.2% this week, after losing 1.6% last week. That left it bearish and ranked #3 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is down 3.0% for the quarter (13 weeks), but up 15.3% for the year (52 weeks).
US SMALL-CAPS Test Resistance-- — IWM
IWM rose 1.3% this week, after gaining 2.0% last week. That left it bearish and ranked #4 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 1.0% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 14.6% for the year (52 weeks).
LATIN AMERICA Suffers Brazil's Choice-- — ILF
ILF fell 14.8% this week, after gaining 0.4% last week. That left it bearish and ranked #5 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is down 10.8% for the quarter (13 weeks), but up 16.0% for the year (52 weeks).
Cash Falls-- — SGOV
The 3-month yield fell 4 basis points to 4.03%. The 10-year dipped 11 to 4.99% flattening the yield curve to 96 basis points. Cash is currently ranked #5 globally. The 3-month T-bill is up 0.9% for the quarter and up 3.7% for the year (52wks). Total return over six months is 1.8%.
EUROPE Tests Resistance-- — IEV
IEV rose 1.4% this week, after losing 1.2% last week. That left it bearish and ranked #7 globally and less attractive than cash. The index is down 3.9% for the quarter (13 weeks), but up 13.6% for the year (52 weeks).
US LONG T-BONDS Hover Near Latest Buy-Stop-- — EDV
EDV rose 0.4% this week, after gaining 2.5% last week. That left it neutral, ranked #8 globally and with a less attractive total return than cash over six months. Long bonds are down 3.5% for the quarter (13 weeks) and down 9.7% for the year (52 weeks) as yields have risen.
GOLD Sinks to New 52-week Low-- — GLD
GLD fell 3.0% this week, after losing 4.0% last week. That left it very bearish and ranked #9 globally and less attractive than cash. The index is down 16.0% for the quarter (13 weeks), and down 3.4% for the year (52 weeks).
Commodities & Macro Snapshot
COMMODITIES Down Fractionally--
A very bullish CRB fell 1.4% this week after gaining 1.1% last week. That leaves commodity prices up 15.9% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 48.0% for the year (52 weeks).
OIL Edges Higher--
Meanwhile, the broader oil complex (USO) fell 0.4% this week, following last week's gain of 4.8% and currently very bullish. That leaves US oil prices up 35.3% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 135.1% for the year (52 weeks).
US DOLLAR Still Steady Below Latest High--
UUP rose 0.1% this week, after gaining 0.1% last week. It is currently very bullish—up 2.4% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 3.5% in the last year (52 weeks). At $29.00, UUP is above its short-term (50-day) average and above its intermediate-term (200-day) average.
Year-to-Date Regional Performance
As of Oct 30, 2026.
| YTD | Fund | 10/23 | 10/16 | 13wk | 26wk | 39wk | 52wk | 3yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.1% | Japan (EWJ) | -1.3% | -0.8% | -0.4% | 4.9% | 9.0% | 20.9% | 58.8% |
| 14.0% | Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AAXJ) | -0.2% | -1.6% | -3.0% | -7.4% | 6.3% | 15.3% | 45.7% |
| 13.5% | US Small-caps (IWM) | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | -0.5% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 29.8% |
| 10.8% | US Large-caps (SPY) | -0.6% | -0.4% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 33.5% |
| 5.5% | Latin America (ILF) | -14.8% | 0.4% | -10.8% | -10.0% | -8.0% | 16.0% | 46.0% |
| 4.6% | Europe (IEV) | 1.4% | -1.2% | -3.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 13.6% | 38.1% |
| 0.3% | Short US Income (SGOV) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 8.4% |
| -8.8% | Very Long US Bonds (EDV) | 0.4% | 2.5% | -3.5% | -4.2% | -5.0% | -9.7% | -10.7% |
| -10.2% | Gold Bullion (GLD) | -3.0% | -4.0% | -16.0% | -17.6% | -20.0% | -3.4% | 40.7% |