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#1 Latin America 40 Gaps to New Buy-Stop--
ILF rose 6.2% this week, after gaining 5.1% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked 1 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 19.1% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 86.4% for the year (52 weeks).
#2 Gold Bullion Plods Higher--
GLD rose 1.8% this week, after gaining 3.5% last week. That left it bullish and ranked 2 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 5.8% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 49.5% for the year (52 weeks).
#3 Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Gaps to New Buy-Stop--
AAXJ rose 6.8% this week, after gaining 2.2% last week. That left it bullish and ranked 3 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 4.8% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 56.9% for the year (52 weeks).
#4 Japanese Stocks Gap to New Buy-Stop--
EWJ rose 3.3% this week, after gaining 4.7% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked 4 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 6.1% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 53.1% for the year (52 weeks).
#5 US Small-Cap Stocks Gap to New Buy-Stop--
IWM rose 4.0% this week, after gaining 3.4% last week. That left it bullish and ranked 5 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 2.2% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 45.2% for the year (52 weeks).
#6 European Large-Cap Stocks Gap to New Buy-Stop--
IEV rose 4.5% this week, after gaining 4.8% last week. That left it bullish and ranked 6 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 2.1% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 36.4% for the year (52 weeks).
#7 Three-Month T-Bill Yields Lower--
SGOV rose 0.1% this week, after losing 0.2% last week. That left it ranked 7 globally. The index is up 0.7% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 3.8% for the year (52 weeks). The 3m-10y yield curve flattened to a slope of 73 bps this week, as the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.32%, and the 3-month cash yield fell to 3.59%.
#8 US Large-Cap Stocks Gap to New Buy-Stop--
SPY rose 3.6% this week, after gaining 3.4% last week. That left it neutral and ranked 8 globally and less attractive than cash. The index is down 1.5% for the quarter (13 weeks), but up 31.0% for the year (52 weeks). US equity sector momentum is positive, and breath is broad (67%) but shrinking. Potential momentum “Buys” include Gold Miners, Oil Equipment & Services, Oil & Gas Exploration, Semiconductors, Pharma, Biotech. Avoids include Software, Internet, Bitcoin, Home Construction, Capital Markets, Medical Devices,
#9 US Long Treasury Bonds--
EDV was flat (0.0%) this week, after gaining 0.3% last week. That left it bearish and ranked #9 globally and less attractive than cash. Long bonds are flat (0.0% )for the quarter (13 weeks) and up 3.9% for the year (52 weeks) as yields have risen.
Commodities Slip Lower on Ceasefire--
A very bullish CRB fell 2.8% this week after gaining 0.8% last week. That left commodity prices up 27.5% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 41.4% for the year (52 weeks). At $28.50 the CRB is above its short-term (50-day) average and above its intermediate-term (200-day) average.
Crude Oil (USO) fell 9.5% this week, following last week's gain of 11.0%. Crude is currently very bullish. That leaves US oil prices up 80.5% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 97.1% for the year (52 weeks).
US Dollar Continues Reset--
UUP fell 1.5% this week, after gaining 0.1% last week. It is currently bullish— up 1.5% for the quarter (13 weeks), but down 2.9% in the last year (52 weeks). At $27.44, UUP is above its short-term (50-day) average and above its intermediate-term (200-day) average.
SEE MOOSECALLS PDF FOR CHARTS AND DETAILS
ILF is the best performer YTD, over the last 2, 13, 26, 39, and 52 weeks. It is the hot new hand, but, unless you are a day-trader it can easily inject more pain than gain to your portfolio. If you’re still in GLD there are still some upside gaps nearby that could be filled before it runs into heavy resistance about 15% higher.
Below we rank 27 major US equity sectors according to their momentum and technicals. We also identify what sectors are working now and have been for awhile. There is no specific sector model to time the group as the ETFs involved may be thinly traded, extremely volatile, and require daily monitoring to avoid disasters. The rankings are more useful for longer term swing trade investors.
Below we show the top 10 US stock sectors by year-to-date return. We also identify what sectors are working in the last 2, 13, 26,, 39 and 52 weeks, and over 3 years. Ranking is based on momentum over about six months (26 weeks). It is necessary to monitor more recent returns to make sure a high momentum reading does not mask a sudden weakness in price.
INDICATIONS REMAIN POSITIVE FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY (3 OF 4)
An international shipping measure and proxy for current global trade, the Baltic Dry Index rose to 2201 this week, and is 30% up after 13 weeks, a positive signal. (After opening 2026 at 1882, BDI is still well below its 2010 peak @4640.)
Meanwhile, another proxy for world activity, WTI oil price fell to 95.63 this week, and is up 63% in the latest quarter, a positiveeconomic signal. (Oil remains below its 2022 peak ($130), but well above the 2020 Covid low ($10.)
Our proxy for global construction, copper ($5.89) is up this week, but remains fractionally lower this quarter, a negative signal.
Domestically, 10Y US bond yields rose to 4.32% this week and are up 15 bps over the past 13 weeks, a positive bet on the largest world economy.
US Economy: week of
APR.10.2026
SPENDING SOLID, PERSONAL INCOME, DURABLE ORDERS, SENTIMENT WEAK
THIS WEEK: POOR
THE GOOD: WEEKLY Continuing Claims (1794K) below previous. FEB Personal Spending (+0.5%) above prior but below forecasts.
THE BAD: WEEKLY Initial Claims (219K) above consensus and prior. WEEKLY EIA Crude Oil Inventories:(+3.08M) build comes down as oil prices fall. APR Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Prelim (47.6) down more than consensus and prior. MAR Treasury Budget (-$164.18B) deficit much less than previous but worse than anticipated. MAR SM Non-Manufacturing Index (54.0%) below previous and expectations. FEB Durable Orders (-1.4%) unexpectedly negative and worse than previous. FEB Personal Income (-0.1%) unexpectedly contracts. FEB Wholesale Inventories (+0.8%) larger than expected build. FEB Factory Orders (0.0%) unexpectedly flat, weaker than before.
THE UGLY: Nothing.
US ECONOMY: INFLATION DATA
War Heats Up CPI, But Not Core
MAR CPI (+0.9%) hot month-to-month
MAR Core CPI (+0.2%) cooler than expected month-to-month.
Q4 GDP - Third Estimate (+0.5%) lower than expected and prior.
Q4 GDP Deflator - Third Estimate (3.7%) warm in line with previous.
FED BALANCE SHEET ($6.69T); FFR @ (3.50-3.75%)
Currently, the Fed’s balance sheet is 6.69T, (UP +.01T) in the latest week (4/9/2025). The Fed Funds Rate was lowered 25 BPS to 3.50-3.75% at the DEC10 FOMC meeting. No change at the January or March FOMC meeting.
The next FOMC meeting is April 29. Jerome Powell will exit as Fed chair in May. Kevin Warsh has been tapped to replace him. Warsh seems inclined to reduce the Fed balance sheet and be more hawkish. Meanwhile, futures make a 2026 rate cut unlikely, certainly until Chairman Powell is gone and even after. With the recent Iranian oil price spike, odds of a December Fed rate hike are possible.
The Fed Check at 80% turned hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (tighter monetary policy needed to combat global inflation pressures.) The US 2-Year yield at 3.80%, however, is now 18 bps HIGHER than the Fed overnight rate (3.625%), implying US domestic conditions make another Fed rate cut increasingly questionable.
The 3m-10y yield curve flattened to a slope of 73 bps this week, as the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.32%, and the 3-month cash yield fell to 3.59%. Intermediate term, the curve was inverted from 11/22 through 12/24 but has been positive since. The 30d-10y median yield is below its 200-day and still falling, leaving our interest rate signal for stocks bearish.
3-month SOFR yield at 3.57% is down this week, while the 3-month T-bill at 3.59% is also down. That puts the SOFR/T-Bill (SOF-T) spread at 2 basis points, below its 200-day average of 20 bps. A falling SOF-T spread signals a safer, more confident financial system.
FED OVERALL THIS WEEK: NEUTRAL (0) LW: NEUTRAL (0)
LATEST Rate Posture: (No Change) NEUTRAL (0)
LATEST Balance Sheet (down .01T) NEUTRAL, (0),
Fed Speak NEUTRAL (0),
Fed Check HAWKISH (-1)
US ECONOMY: RECESSION & GDP INDICATORS
NY FED: MINIMAL RECESSION THREAT DOWN SLIGHTLY
US recession chances one year out: 18.80% (MAR 2027) per NY Fed. (Recession expected if chance > 30%.)
As of May 2025, the Fed model’s chance of recession fell below 30%, the threshold signaling a recession one year out. It remains there. The risk of recession was the highest in 40 years in May 2024, but it was avoided amid three years of massive Federal deficit spending and historic data falsification at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
ATLANTA FED: US Q1 GDP NOW at 1.3%
Atlanta Fed Current GDP Model (4/9/2026): Q1 Annualized 1.3% (Last week: Q1 Annualized +1.6%)
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