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The Moosecalls global investment newsletter tracks investment strategy performance, including buy-and-hold and market timing using ETFs as proxies for indices.
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION—Risk ON (1)
THIS WEEK was the first MIXED-Risk week after Risk-ON week. US Stocks DOWN, Foreign Stocks MIXED, US Bonds UP and Gold UP.
Producer Prices Roil the Markets
The week started with the markets sorting out the SCOTUS decision on tariffs and ended with hot producer price data threatening Fed rate cut intentions in 2026. US equities backed off with small-caps (-1.2%) leading the way lower over large (-0.5%).
Very long US bonds rallied (+2.1%) while the 10-year yield dropped to 3.96% and the cash yield dipped to 3.58%. The negativity got an assist from another partial government shut-down affecting DHS functions related to FEMA, TSA and Coast Guard. It is not expected to weaken the economy as much as the Q4 shutdown, but the motivation is the same: election year shenanigans.
The Dollar was flat this week, but hard assets gold (+3.2%), commodities (+2.0%) and oil (+1.4%) all rallied. Offshore, Latin equities (-1.6%) fell, but Japan (+1.0%), Asia-Pacific (+0.6%) and Europe (+0.1%). gained. No model changes this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK FALLS TO NEUTRAL (2 of 4). The Baltic Dry Index is down over the quarter as are 10-year US yields and negatives. Copper and oil prices are both higher in the past quarter— positive indications for the global economy.
INFLATION: DEC Core PPI inflation (+0.8%) hot m-t-m and hot (+3.6%) y-o-y. Across-the-board 15% tariffs, implemented raising inflation threat.
US ECONOMIC DATA: PPI Inflation Hot, Factory Orders Weak, Consumer Confidence and Construction Up
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.60 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%.
Next Fed meeting (3/18). Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell in May. Rate cut still considered (69%) likely in June. Fed Check remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) No rate hike is expected per CME futures, however.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: (1) The Index Model is outperforming all competitors in 2026. It has held gold (GLD) since switching from EFA via buy-stop on August 28, 2025. It is neither overbought nor close to a stop-loss. (2) The US Equity Strategy (USES) Model exited US Growth 2/10/2026 for SPYD (2/17/2026). US stocks are not the best equity choice, but they still beat cash. (3) The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) holds Fund (I) International stocks (since 1/30).
GLOBAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL (2 of 4)
Indications are neutral for the global economy.
An international shipping measure and proxy for current global trade, the Baltic Dry Index rose to 2140 this week, and is down after 13 weeks, a negative signal. (After opening 2026 at 1882, BDI is still well below its 2010 peak @4640.)
Meanwhile, another proxy for world activity, WTI oil price rose to 67.29 this week, and is up 15% in the latest quarter, a positive signal. (Oil remains below its 2022 peak @$130, but well above its 2020 Covid lows @$10.)
Our proxy for global construction, copper ($6.06) is also up week, and remains 15% higher this quarter, a positive signal.
Domestically, 10Y US bond yields fell to 3.96% this week and are down 6 bps over the past 13 weeks, a negative bet on the largest world economy.
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#1 Gold Rally Continues-- Gold Bullion (GLD) rose 3.2% this week after gaining 1.3% last week. It is very bullish, ranked 1 globally, and more attractive than cash. The index is up 29.3% for the quarter and up 83.7% for the year.
#2 Latin America 40 Posts Brief New High—ILF fell 1.6% this week after gaining 2.3% last week. It is very bullish, ranked 2 globally, and more attractive than cash. The index is up 27.9% for the quarter and up 77.0% for the year.
#3 Japanese Stocks (EWJ) Partially Recover-- (EWJ) rose 1.0% this week after losing 2.5% last week. It remains very bullish, ranked 3 globally, and more attractive than cash. The index is up 23.0% for the quarter and up 49.5% for the year.
#4 Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Again Pushes Higher-- (AAXJ) rose 0.6% this week after gaining 2.3% last week. It remains very bullish, ranked 4 globally, and more attractive than cash. The index is up 20.7% for the quarter and up 50.3% for the year.
#5 Rangebound US Small-Caps Pull Back-- (IWM) fell 1.2% this week after gaining 0.6% last week. It is very bullish, ranked 5 globally, and more attractive than cash. The index is up 11.4% for the quarter and up 22.9% for the year.
#6 European Large-Cap Stocks Stall-- (IEV) rose 0.1% this week after gaining 1.5% last week. It is very bullish, ranked 6 globally, and more attractive than cash. The index is up 16.2% for the quarter and up 33.2% for the year.
#7 Large-caps Remain Range-bound-- US Large-Cap Stocks (SPY) fell 0.5% this week after gaining 1.1% last week. It is bullish, ranked 7 globally, and more attractive than cash. The index is up 4.7% for the quarter and up 17.3% for the year. This week’s US equity sector momentum is positive; breath is broad but contracting-- 78% of our sectors are buy or hold (L81%) with BUYS now 52% (L52%) and HOLDS now 26% (L33%). AVOIDS are currently 22% (L15%). Potential “Buys” include Gold Miners, Oil Equipment & Services, Semiconductors, Pharma, Biotech. “Avoids” include Software, Internet, Bitcoin, Medical Devices, Healthcare, Capital Markets.
#8 Cash Yield Steady-- Three-month T-bills (SGOV) rose 0.1% this week after gaining 0.0% last week. It is ranked 8 globally. The index is up 1.0% for the quarter and up 4.1% for the year. The 3-month yield rose 1 tick to 3.58 and the 10-year held steady at 3.96% with the yield curve flattening to 38 basis points.
#9 T-bonds Rally as US Equities Fade-- US Long Treasury Bonds (EDV) rose 2.1% this week after losing 0.4% last week. It is very bearish, ranked 9 globally, and less attractive than cash. Long bonds are up 1.9% for the quarter but down 4.1% for the year.
Commodities Continue to Soar-- Commodities (CRB) rose 2.0% this week after gaining 3.0% last week. That leaves commodity prices up 8.5% for the quarter and up 13.4% for the year. Oil prices rose 1.4% this week, following last week's gain of 6.1%. Crude is currently very bullish. That leaves US oil prices up 13.0% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 11.0% for the year (52 weeks).
Dollar Arrests Its Slide-- US Dollar (UUP) fell fractionally (0.0%) this week after gaining 1.0% last week. It is currently bearish—down 3.9% for the quarter and down 6.8% for the year.
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Below we rank 27 major US equity sectors according to their momentum and technicals. We also identify what sectors are working now and have been for awhile. There is no specific sector model to time the group as the ETFs involved may be thinly traded, extremely volatile, and require daily monitoring to avoid disasters. The rankings are more useful for longer term swing trade investors.
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