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The Moosecalls global investment newsletter tracks investment strategy performance, including buy-and-hold and market timing using ETFs as proxies for indices.
GLOBAL MARKETS:
WEEK’S ACTION— MIXED Risk (4)
THIS WEEK was the fourth MIXED-risk week in a row. Foreign Stocks UP, US Stocks DOWN, US Bonds UP and Gold UP.
An AI Revolution Bummer
Cooling US consumer inflation and more new jobs than expected wasn’t enough to thrill US equity investors this week. Hard to celebrate after the release of two expanded AI algorithms and predictions that AI will be doing most jobs of most people better than they can in two years.
US stock investors continued to look for better deals with large-caps (-1.3%) leading small-caps (-0.8%) lower. US Bonds (+3.8%) provided the preferred domestic alternative. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.06%, and the cash yield added a tick to 3.59%, flattening the yield curve to 47 bps.
Falling interest rates weakened the Dollar (-0.7%) which pushed the better equity deals abroad as Japan (+5.0%), Asia-Pacific (+1.9%), Latin America (+0.6%), and Europe (+0.3%) all posted gains.
The weaker greenback also helped gold (+1.6%), but not commodities (-0.5%) generally or oil (-1.0%). One model change this week. USES exited large-cap Growth (IUSG).
GLOBAL OUTLOOK SINKS TO NEUTRAL 2 of 4). The Baltic Dry Index is down over the quarter as are 10-year US yields and negatives. Copper and oil prices are both higher in the past quarter— positive indications for the global economy.
INFLATION: Commodity and Oil prices slipped lower. January CPI Cool; Import prices unchanged Y-on-Y.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Good weekly report driven by stellar payroll report and cool consumer and import inflation in January.
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.60 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%.
Next Fed meeting (3/18). Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell in May. Rate cut still considered (69%) likely in June. Fed Check remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) No rate hike is expected per CME futures, however.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: (1) The Index Model is outperforming all competitors in 2026. It has held gold (GLD) since switching from EFA via buy-stop on August 28, 2025. It is neither overbought nor close to a stop-loss.
(2) The US Equity Strategy (USES) Model exited US Growth 2/10/2026. A change to SPYD appears imminent once it is no longer overbought. Since US large caps are not the best US equity choice, the model will henceforth incorporate US small caps (IWM).
(3) The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) switched out of US large-cap stocks (Fund C) and into Fund (I) International stocks last week (1/30).
GLOBAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL (2 of 4)
Indications are neutral for the global economy.
An international shipping measure and proxy for current global trade, the Baltic Dry Index rose to 2083 this week, and is down after 13 weeks, a negative signal. (After opening 2026 at 1882, BDI is still well below its 2010 peak @4640.)
Meanwhile, another proxy for world activity, WTI oil price at 62.81 fell this week, but is up 5% in the latest quarter, a positive signal. (Oil remains below its 2022 peak @$130, but well above its 2020 Covid lows @$10.)
Our proxy for global construction, copper ($5.86) fell this week, but remains 16% higher this quarter, a positive signal.
Domestically, 10Y US bond yields fell to 4.06% this week and are down 9 bps over the past 13 weeks, a negative bet on the largest world economy.
The weaker greenback also helped gold (+1.6%), but not commodities (-0.5%) generally or oil (-1.0%). One model change this week. USES exited largeGrowth (IUSG).
#1 GOLD Regains Its Footing—
Gold rose 1.6% this week, after gaining 2.4% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked 1 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 22.3% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 73.7% for the year (52 weeks)
#2 LATIN AMERICA Tops Out At Prior High--
ILF rose 0.6% this week, after gaining 1.9% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked 2 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 24.1% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 62.7% for the year (52 weeks).
#3 ASIA-PACIFIC Pops to New High--
AAXJ rose 1.9% this week, after gaining 1.4% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked 3 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 11.7% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 42.9% for the year (52 weeks).
#4 JAPAN Gaps Even Higher--
EWJ rose 5.0% this week, after gaining 4.3% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked 4 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 21.0% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 49.7% for the year (52 weeks).
#5 US SMALL-CAPS Again Hold 50-day--
IWM fell 0.8% this week, after gaining 2.1% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked 5 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 8.1% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 17.4% for the year (52 weeks).
#6 EUROPE Pushes Higher--
IEV rose 0.3% this week, after gaining 1.1% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked 6 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 11.6% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 31.5% for the year (52 weeks).
#7 US LARGE-CAPS Rangebound--
US Large-Cap Stocks (SPY)-- SPY fell 1.3% this week, after losing 0.2% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked 7 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 0.6% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 13.5% for the year (52 weeks). This week’s US equity sector momentum is positive; breadth is broad but shrinking-- 78% of our sectors are buy or hold. Potential “Buys” include Gold Miners, Semiconductors, Oil Equipment & Services, Biotech, Pharma. “Avoids” include Software, Medical Devices, Healthcare, Internet, and Insurance.
#8 Three-Month T-Bills (SGOV)--
SGOV rose 0.1% this week, after gaining 0.1% last week. That left it ranked 8 globally. The index is up 1.0% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 4.1% for the year (52 weeks).The US Treasury 3-month (cash) yield rose 1 tick to 3.59,10-year yield fell 22 ticks this week to 4.06 and with the yield curve flattening to 47 basis points.
#9 LONG BOND Gaps Up on the AI “Job Effect”--
EDV rose 3.8% this week, after gaining 1.1% last week. That left it very bearish and ranked #8 globally and less attractive than cash. Long bonds are up 0.5% for the quarter (13 weeks) but down 0.8% for the year (52 weeks).
Commodities Back Off—
The CRB fell 0.5% this week after losing 1.7% last week. That left commodity prices up 4.6% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 7.0% for the year (52 weeks).
Crude Oil (USO) led the way (-1.0%) down, following last week's loss of 3.2%. Crude is currently very bullish. That leaves US oil prices up 7.3% for the quarter (13 weeks), but down 0.1% for the year (52 weeks).
US DOLLAR Gaps Down to 200-day Support-- UUP fell 0.7% this week, after gaining 0.6% last week. It is currently very bearish—down 3.7% for the quarter (13 weeks), and down 8.9% in the last year (52 weeks).
SEE MOOSECALLS PDF FOR FULL DETAILS
Below we rank 27 major US equity sectors according to their momentum and technicals. We also identify what sectors are working now and have been for awhile. There is no specific sector model to time the group as the ETFs involved may be thinly traded, extremely volatile, and require daily monitoring to avoid disasters. The rankings are more useful for longer term swing trade investors.
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