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#1 Oversold Gold Gains Fractionally--
Gold rose 0.3% this week, after losing 10.3% last week. That left it bullish and ranked 1 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 2.1% for the quarter and up 45.7% for the year. Despite a positive week it did not trigger a buy-stop to reverse its latest stop-loss.
#2. Latin America Surges With Commodities --
Latin America rose 4.0% this week, after losing 1.7% last week. That left it bullish and ranked 2 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 12.6% for the quarter and up 52.5% for the year. Despite a positive week it did not trigger a buy-stop to reverse its latest stop-loss.
#3. Japan Gets a Bounce--
Japan rose 0.3% this week, after losing 2.6% last week. That left it bullish and ranked 3 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 3.3% for the quarter and up 29.6% for the year. Despite a positive week it did not trigger a buy-stop to reverse its latest stop-loss.
#4. Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Loses Ground--
Asia-Pacific ex-Japan fell 1.8% this week, after losing 1.9% last week. That left it bullish and ranked 4 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 9.2% for the quarter and up 34.1% for the year.
#5. US Small Caps Struggle to Stay Afloat--
US Small Caps rose 0.4% this week, after losing 1.8% last week. That left it neutral and ranked 5 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is down 1.0% for the quarter but up 19.3% for the year. Despite a positive week it did not trigger a buy-stop to reverse its latest stop-loss.
#6. Europe’s Swoon Takes a Break--
Europe rose 0.4% this week, after losing 3.2% last week. That left it neutral and ranked 6 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is down 1.2% for the quarter but up 17.4% for the year. Despite a positive week it did not trigger a buy-stop to reverse its latest stop-loss.
#7. US Large Caps Turn Bearish--
US Large Caps fell 2.2% this week, after losing 2.1% last week. That left it bearish and ranked 7 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is down 2.9% for the quarter but up 15.6% for the year.
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#8. Three-month T-bills: The Place to Be Three-month T-bills rose 0.1% this week, after gaining 0.1% last week. That left cash ranked 8 globally. The index is up 0.6% for the quarter and up 3.8% for the year. As the only asset not operating off a stop-loss, cash is the regional index model’s #1 choice again this week.
#9. Long Treasury Bonds Suffer Inflations FearsLong Treasury Bonds fell 0.3% this week, after losing 0.9% last week. That left it bearish and ranked #9 globally and less attractive than cash. Long bonds are down 1.2% for the quarter and down 6.2% for the year as yields have risen.
Commodities Rally OnA very bullish CRB rose 0.6% this week after gaining 0.8% last week. That left commodity prices up 27.4% for the quarter and up 31.1% for the year. At $29.10 the CRB is above its short-term average and above its intermediate-term average.
US Dollar The Dollar rose 0.6% this week, after losing 0.8% last week. It is currently bullish—down 1.1% for the quarter and down 2.8% in the last year. At $27.84, the Dollar is above its short-term average and above its intermediate-term average.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK: POSITIVE (3 of 4)
Indications remain positive for the global economy.
An international shipping measure and proxy for current global trade, the Baltic Dry Index fell to 2031 this week, but is up after 13 weeks, a positive signal. (After opening 2026 at 1882, BDI is still well below its 2010 peak @4640.)
Meanwhile, another proxy for world activity, WTI oil price dipped to 98.23 this week, but is up 76% in the latest quarter, a positive economic signal. (Oil remains below its 2022 peak @$130, but well above its 2020 Covid lows @$10.)
Our proxy for global construction, copper ($5.49) is up this week, but remains 6% lower this quarter, a negative signal.
Domestically, 10Y US bond yields rose to 4.44% this week and are up 30 bps over the past 13 weeks, a positive bet on the largest world economy.
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Below we rank 27 major US equity sectors according to their momentum and technicals. We also identify what sectors are working now and have been for awhile. There is no specific sector model to time the group as the ETFs involved may be thinly traded, extremely volatile, and require daily monitoring to avoid disasters. The rankings are more useful for longer term swing trade investors.
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