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The Moosecalls global investment newsletter tracks investment strategy performance, including buy-and-hold and market timing using ETFs as proxies for indices.
THIS WEEK’s Risk-OFF week follows 1 MIXED-Risk week.
US Stocks DOWN, Foreign Stocks DOWN, US Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
A MAJOR DOWNER
The widely expected Israeli-US attack on Iran this week has had a predictably negative impact on financial markets. US large caps (-2.0%) and small caps (-4.0%) retreated this week, along with US long Treasury bonds (-3.1%). (The 10-year yield rose to 4.13% and the cash yield dipped to 3.57%.)
Plunging equities in Japan (-8.2%), Asia-Pacific (-8.1%), Latin America (-7.3%) and Europe (-6.6%) led the way lower. The negativity was exacerbated by singularly bad news in the February employment report that jobs actually fell by 92K and unemployment rose back to 4.4%.
Normally that would bode well for a Fed rate cut sooner rather than later, but the war has shut down the Straits of Hormuz south of Iran, constricting the supply of oil out of the region and spiking crude prices 33% from $65 to $90 a barrel.
The war pushed commodity prices 10% higher as well, even as the Dollar rallied (+1.4%) in a flight to safety that pushed gold (-2.1%) slightly lower. One model change this week though USES and TSP both triggered 20-day stop-losses.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK HOLDS AT NEUTRAL (2 of 4). The Baltic Dry Index is down over the quarter as are 10-year US yields and negatives. Copper and oil prices are both higher in the past quarter— positive indications for the global economy.
INFLATION: Export-Import Prices cool. Oil prices spike 33% on US-Israel attack of Iran.
US ECONOMIC DATA: FEB Jobs Contract 92K, Unemployment Back to 4.4%
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.63 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting (3/18). Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell in May. Rate cut still considered (69%) likely in June. Fed Check remains neutral as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) No rate hike is expected per CME futures, however.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: (1) The Index Model is outperforming all competitors in 2026. It has held gold (GLD) since switching from EFA via buy-stop on August 28, 2025. It is neither overbought nor close to a stop-loss. (2) The US Equity Strategy (USES) Model exited US Growth 2/10/2026 for SPYD (2/17/2026). US stocks are not the best equity choice, but they still beat cash. (3) The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) switches to Fund (G) Cash (since 3/3/26).
GLOBAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL (2 of 4)
Indications are neutral for the global economy.
An international shipping measure and proxy for current global trade, the Baltic Dry Index fell to 2010 this week, and is down after 13 weeks, a negative signal. (After opening 2026 at 1882, BDI is still well below its 2010 peak @4640.)
Meanwhile, another proxy for world activity, WTI oil price rose to 91.27 this week, and is up 52% in the latest quarter, a positive economic signal. (Oil remains below its 2022 peak @$130, but well above its 2020 Covid lows @$10.)
Our proxy for global construction, copper ($5.81) is down week, but remains 6% higher this quarter, a positive signal.
Domestically, 10Y US bond yields rose to 4.13% this week and are down 1 bps over the past 13 weeks, a negative bet on the largest world economy.
SEE MOOSECALLS PDF FOR FULL DETAILS
#1 GOLD Weathers Dollar Spike--
GLD fell 2.1% this week, after gaining 3.2% last week. That left it Very Bullish and ranked 1 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 21.5% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 76.4% for the year (52 weeks).
#2 LATIN AMERICA Corrects 7%--
ILF fell 7.3% this week, after losing 1.6% last week. That left it Very Bullish and ranked 2 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 13.8% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 59.9% for the year (52 weeks).
#3 JAPAN Hit Hard By War Worries--
EWJ fell 8.2% this week, after gaining 1.0% last week. That left it Very Bullish and ranked 3 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 10.9% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 33.5% for the year (52 weeks).
#4 ASIA-PACIFIC Sinks on War Fear--
AAXJ fell 8.1% this week, after gaining 0.6% last week. That left it Very Bullish and ranked 4 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 8.6% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 34.1% for the year (52 weeks).
#5 US SMALL-CAPS Trigger Stop-Loss--
IWM fell 4.0% this week, after losing 1.2% last week. That left it Very Bullish and ranked 5 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 2.5% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 22.9% for the year (52 weeks).
#6 EUROPE Tanks As War Breaks Out--
IEV fell 6.6% this week, after gaining 0.1% last week. That left it Bullish and ranked 6 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is up 5.7% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 18.8% for the year (52 weeks).
#7 US LARGE-CAPS Trigger Stop-Loss--
SPY fell 2.0% this week, after losing 0.5% last week. That left it Bullish and ranked 7 globally and more attractive than cash. The index is down 0.6% for the quarter (13 weeks), but up 18.6% for the year (52 weeks). US equity sector momentum is positive; breath is broad but expanding-- 82% of our sectors are buy or hold (L78%) with BUYS now 52% (L52%) and HOLDS now 30% (L26%). AVOIDS are currently 18% (L22%). Potential “Buys” include Gold Miners, Oil Equipment & Services, Semiconductors, Pharma, Biotech. “Avoids” include Software, Internet, Bitcoin, Medical Devices, Healthcare, Capital Markets.
#8 CASH (Three-Month T-Bills) Steady--
SGOV rose 0.1% this week, after gaining 0.1% last week. That left it ranked 8 globally. The index is up 0.7% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 3.8% for the year (52 weeks).
#9 LONG BONDS Reverse Lower As War Erupts--
EDV fell 3.1% this week, after gaining 2.1% last week. That left it Very Bullish and ranked #9 globally and less attractive than cash. Long bonds are up 0.3% for the quarter (13 weeks) but down 3.8% for the year (52 weeks) as yields have risen.
COMMODITIES Soar With 33% Oil Spike--
A Very Bullish CRB rose 9.6% this week after gaining 2.0% last week. That left commodity prices up 22.2% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 25.8% for the year (52 weeks).
US DOLLAR Breaks Higher on War Fear--
UUP rose 1.4% this week, after being flat 0.0% last week. It is currently Bearish—down 2.5% for the quarter (13 weeks), and down 3.6% in the last year (52 weeks).
SEE MOOSECALLS PDF FOR FULL DETAILS
Below we rank 27 major US equity sectors according to their momentum and technicals. We also identify what sectors are working now and have been for awhile. There is no specific sector model to time the group as the ETFs involved may be thinly traded, extremely volatile, and require daily monitoring to avoid disasters. The rankings are more useful for longer term swing trade investors.
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