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The Moosecalls global investment newsletter tracks investment strategy performance, including buy-and-hold and market timing using ETFs as proxies for indices.
GLOBAL MARKETS:
WEEK’S ACTION— MIXED-Risk (2)
THIS WEEK was the second MIXED-risk week in a row. Foreign Stocks UP, US Stocks DOWN, US Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
FAST TIMES AT GOLDEN HIGH
Overbought gold bullion (-2.8%) tanked almost 16% top to bottom between Thursday and Friday but ended up less than 3% lower on the week. We also got a new Fed chair nominee, and another government shutdown to ponder this week. (See Moospeak.)
Meanwhile, Japan (+1.4%) led foreign equities higher this week as rumors of financial intervention to shore up the Yen continued to linger. Equities in Latin America (+1.1%) and Europe (+0.9%) were close behind, but Asia-Pacific (+0.1%) slowed. US equities were mixed with large caps (+0.4%) regaining half the prior two week’s losses and small caps (-1.9%) backing off three weeks of work as well.
US long bonds (-1.7%) got hammered as interest rates rose. The 10-year yield rose 13bps to 4.25% and the 30-day rose 7 to 3.58%. That steepened the yield curve to 68 bps.
The Dollar (-0.2%) continued to lose ground thanks to US tariffs and to the Yen intervention concerns. Commodities (+1.0%) led by oil (+7.5%) also rallied on the weaker dollar. No model changes this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK IS BROADLY POSITIVE 4 of 4). The Baltic Dry Index along with copper and oil prices and US bond yields are all higher—very positive indications for the global economy.
INFLATION: Consumer Inflation Steady; PPI Inflation turns hot. Commodity and oil prices up for a fifth week due to concern over political developments in Venezuela, Iran and the Black Sea. It has pushed the Fed Check into hawkish mode.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Very good weekly report. Durables, Home Prices, Factory Orders Up, Consumer Confidence Slides.
FEDERAL RESERVE: Kevin Warsh has been tapped to replace Jerome Powell in May as Fed chair. The Fed Check has turned hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (tighter monetary policy needed to combat global inflation pressures.) No rate hike is expected per CME futures, however. The next 25 bps Fed rate cut (likelihood >60%) is expected June 17 (62%). No change at the January FOMC meeting. The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.58 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: (1) The Index Model is outperforming all competitors in 2026. It remains in gold (GLD) after switching from EFA via buy-stop on August 28. It surged this week and is overbought again. (2) The US Equity Strategy (USES) Model bought into US Growth in December. No change since. IUSG came close to a stop loss this week but rebounded away. SPY did as well. US stocks are not the best equity choice, but they still beat cash. (3) The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) switched out of US large-cap stocks (Fund C) and into Fund (I) International stocks this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK: POSITIVE (4 of 4)
Indications remain positive for the global economy.
An international shipping measure and proxy for current global trade, the Baltic Dry Index rose to 1762 this week, and is lower after 13 weeks, a negative signal. (After opening 2025 at 1072, BDI is still well below its 2010 peak @4640.)
Meanwhile, another proxy for world activity, WTI oil price at 61.28 rose this week, up slightly for the latest quarter, a positive signal. (Oil remains below its 2022 peak @$130, but well above its 2020 Covid lows @$10.)
Our proxy for global construction, copper ($5.95) rose this week, but remains higher this quarter, a positivesignal.
Domestically, 10Y US bond yields rose 1 ticks to 4.24% this week and are up over the past 13 weeks, a positive bet on the largest world economy.
SEE MOOSECALLS PDF FOR FULL DETAILS
#1 GOLD Relieves Itself--
GLD fell 2.8% this week after gaining 8.7% last week. That left gold very bullish and ranked #1 globally, making it more attractive than cash. Gold is up 21.2% for the quarter and up 72.1% for the year.
#2 LATIN AMERICA Cools Its Jets--
ILF rose 1.1% this week after gaining 7.7% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked #2 globally, making it more attractive than cash. The index is up 27.8% for the quarter and up 67.2% for the year.
#3 ASIA-PACIFIC No Longer Overbought--
AAXJ rose 0.1% this week after gaining 1.4% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked #3 globally, making it more attractive than cash. The index is up 7.3% for the quarter and up 43.5% for the year.
#4 US SMALL-CAPS Continue Dip--
IWM fell 1.9% this week after losing 0.4% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked #4 globally, making it more attractive than cash. The index is up 4.1% for the quarter and up 15.7% for the year.
#5 JAPAN Stabilizes--
EWJ rose 1.4% this week after losing 1.1% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked #5 globally, making it more attractive than cash. The index is up 10.7% for the quarter and up 39.1% for the year.
#6 US LARGE-CAPS Track 50-Day--
SPY rose 0.4% this week after losing 0.4% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked #6 globally, making it more attractive than cash. The index is up 1.6% for the quarter and up 16.8% for the year. US equity sector momentum is positive, and breath stays broad and steady-- 89% of our sectors are buy or hold (L89%). “Buys” include Gold Miners, Semiconductors, Biotech, Bitcoin, and Technology. “Avoids” include REITs, Healthcare Providers, Consumer Staples, Food & Beverage
#7 EUROPE Backs Off Davos High--
IEV rose 0.9% this week after gaining 0.7% last week. That left it very bullish and ranked #7 globally, making it more attractive than cash. The index is up 9.4% for the quarter and up 35.6% for the year.
#8 LONG BOND Momentum Goes Negative--
EDV fell 1.7% this week after gaining 0.2% last week. That left it bearish and ranked #8 globally, though still more attractive than cash. Long bonds are down 7.4% for the quarter and down 3.0% for the year as yields have risen.
#9 Cash and Bond Yields Rise--
The US Treasury 10-year yield rose 13 ticks to 4.25 and the 3-month yield rose 7 ticks to 3.58, with the yield curve steepening to 68 basis points. That reduces the odds of a recession in late 2026. Cash (SGOV) rose 0.1% this week after gaining 0.0% last week. That left it ranked #9 globally. The index is up 0.3% for the quarter and up 0.3% for the year.
Overbought COMMODITIES Plunge—
Crude Oil: Meanwhile, oil prices (USO) rose 7.5% this week, following last week’s gain of 3.2%. Crude is currently very bullish. That leaves US oil prices up 12.6% for the quarter (13 weeks), and up 2.2% for the year (52 weeks).
US DOLLAR Support Halts Plunge--
UUP fell 0.2% this week, after losing 1.9% last week. It is currently very bearish—down 3.8% for the quarter (13 weeks), and down 8.6% in the last year (52 weeks).
SEE MOOSECALLS PDF FOR FULL DETAILS
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