Latest data compilation and notes.
07/17/2026
The Thrift Savings Plan is the government’s 401K-style retirement plan for Federal employees only and not available to the general public. TSP Moose is a Thrift Savings Plan momentum model that compares the five TSP index funds-- cash (G), fixed income (F), US large-caps (C), US small-caps (S), and International stocks (I) with with four globally diversified "Lifetime" portfolios-- very aggressive (L2050), aggressive (L2040) moderate (L2030) and conservative (L Income). The TSP model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
The Model Framework selects the asset with the best momentum, technicals,and recent price action in which to invest 100% of the portfolio. Momentum is ranked according to Confidence Index, Technical Strength, and Fed Monetary policy. The Donchian 20-day system is used to set stops. In addition, RSI and PMO are used to filter switch signals.
THIS WEEK the 1st Risk-OFF week after two MIXED-Risk weeks.
US Stocks DOWN, Foreign Stocks DOWN, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
This week: *The TSP Model holds US Small-caps (Fund S) since 7/2/26 @117.55.)
International Equities (Fund I) still leads in overall confidence, due to smoothing differences, but triggered a switch 7/2/2026. US Small-caps took over #1 as the strongest alternative working off a buy-stop. Offshore equities have been fading since rate hikes in Europe and Japan in June.
Best Alternative: US Large-caps are #1 technically (very bullish) with a positive PMO @ #2.
OVERALL, aggressive Lifetime Portfolios are outperforming TSP timing and the more moderate B&H portfolios.
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
Fund S leads YTD and over 13 an 26 weeks, despite a poor couple of weeks for small-caps. Fund I still leads over 39, and 52 weeks and 3Y, but European and Japanese rate hikes in June put future performance at risk.
Fund S leads YTD and over 13 an 26 weeks, despite a poor couple of weeks for small-caps. Fund I still leads over 39, and 52 weeks and 3Y, but European and Japanese rate hikes in June put future performance at risk.
This week: *The TSP Model holds US Small-caps (Fund S) since 7/2/26 @117.55.)
L2060 (Aggressive B&H) +12%
L2050 (Growth B&H ) +10%
L2040 (Moderate B&H) +9%
TSP MOOSE YTD +8%
L2030 (Conservative B&H) +7%
The TSP Model is under-performing the most aggressive Lifetime allocations since (4/24)
For Buy and Hold investors, Aggressive portfolios continue to outperform Conservative.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
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