Latest data compilation and notes.
The Thrift Savings Plan is for Federal employees only and not available to the general public. TSP Moose is a Thrift Savings Plan momentum model that compares the five TSP index funds-- cash (G), fixed income (F), US large-caps (C), US small-caps (S), and International stocks (I) with with four globally diversified "Lifetime" portfolios-- very aggressive (L2050), aggressive (L2040) moderate (L2030) and conservative (L Income). The TSP model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
The Model Framework selects the asset with the best momentum, technicals,and recent price action in which to invest 100% of the portfolio. Momentum is ranked according to Confidence Index, Technical Strength, and Fed Monetary policy. The Donchian 20-day system is used to set stops. In addition, RSI and PMO are used to filter switch signals.
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
THIS WEEK was the first MIXED-Risk week after two risk-ON. Foreign Stocks MIXED, US Stocks DOWN US Bonds UP Gold UP.
TSP MOOSE SWITCHED to International Equities (I Fund) via CI on 1/21/26.
L2060 (Aggressive B&H) +3%
L2050 (Growth B&H ) +3%
L2040 (Moderate B&H) +2%
L2030 (Conservative B&H) +2%
TSP MOOSE YTD +1%
The TSP Model is underperforming, all Lifetime allocations due to an over-reliance on US equities in January before switching to International equities (I Fund) 1/21. The timing model could catch-up, provided international equities recover at the rate they have in Q1.
For Buy and Hold investors, Aggressive is outperforming Conservative.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
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