Latest data compilation and notes.
09/04/2026
The Thrift Savings Plan is the government’s 401K-style retirement plan for Federal employees only and not available to the general public. TSP Moose is a Thrift Savings Plan momentum model that compares the five TSP index funds-- cash (G), fixed income (F), US large-caps (C), US small-caps (S), and International stocks (I) with with four globally diversified "Lifetime" portfolios-- very aggressive (L2050), aggressive (L2040) moderate (L2030) and conservative (L Income). The TSP model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
The Model Framework selects the asset with the best momentum, technicals,and recent price action in which to invest 100% of the portfolio. Momentum is ranked according to Confidence Index, Technical Strength, and Fed Monetary policy. The Donchian 20-day system is used to set stops. In addition, RSI and PMO are used to filter switch signals.
THIS WEEK: 2nd MIXED-Risk week in a row.
US Stocks FLAT, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN
This week: The TSP Model holds US Small-caps (Fund S) since 7/2/26 @117.55.)
A 4-week decline in the Dollar put Fund I (International) on top among TSP assets in overall confidence, technical strength and positive, improving PMO last week. Hawkish Fed-speak out of Jackson Hole, however, revived the buck last week, favoring US assets and buying incumbent Fund S (Small-caps) a few more days in the model’s top slot. Incumbent #1 US small-caps are still technically bullish with a positive PMO but have eroded over the last 3 weeks due to growing worries about a September Fed rate hike. This week those worries faded after dovish Fed-speak from Governor Waller. A Fed rate hike would help the Dollar and pressure US equities, especially small caps. A delay could mean a rebound in US equities. Next week’s consumer price inflation report will help clarify the Fed’s next move.
Best Alternative:Fund (I) is currently benefitting from US programs to support the Yen and buy-down US debt, both weakening the Dollar, but the risk of a near-term rate hike (that would boost the greenback) is up.
OVERALL, aggressive Lifetime Portfolios are outperforming TSP timing and the more moderate B&H portfolios.
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
US equities are gaining traction. Funds S and I lead over 13 weeks and Fund C leads over 26. International Fund (I) still leads YTD, over 39 and 52 weeks and over 3Y. European and Japanese rate hikes in June put Fund I performance at risk and generated a stop-loss. Another round of ECB and BoJ rate hikes is expected within 10 days. Fund I, however, has recently benefitted from US programs to support the Yen and buy-down US debt weakening the Dollar. US monetary policy is a toss-up at this point, awaiting next week’s CPI inflation report.
Fund I leads YTD . S leads over 13 and 26 weeks. Fund I had led until European and Japanese rate hikes in June put its performance at risk and generated a stop-loss. Fund I, however, still leads over 39 and 52 weeks.
This week: *The TSP Model holds US Small-caps (Fund S) since 7/2/26 @117.55.)
L2060 (Aggressive B&H) +16%
L2050 (Growth B&H ) +14%
L2040 (Moderate B&H) +12%
TSP MOOSE YTD +10%
L2030 (Conservative B&H) +10%
The TSP Model is under-performing Lifetime allocations since (4/24)
For Buy and Hold investors, Aggressive portfolios continue to outperform Conservative.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
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