TSP Model
Decision Moose Signals for Thrift Savings Plan Investors
The TSP Model translates the Decision Moose Global Index Model signals into actionable allocations for federal employees and military personnel invested in the Thrift Savings Plan. Because TSP participants cannot hold ETFs directly, the model maps each Global Index signal to the closest equivalent TSP fund.
What Is the Thrift Savings Plan?
The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is the retirement savings programme for US federal civilian employees and uniformed services members. It offers five core index funds — C, S, I, F, and G — plus Lifecycle (L) funds. With over $800 billion in assets, it is one of the largest defined-contribution plans in the world. TSP participants can move between funds via interfund transfers, making it well-suited to a momentum-based rotation strategy.
Global Index to TSP Fund Mapping
When the Global Index Model signals a top-ranked asset, TSP investors use the following equivalents:
| Global Index Signal | TSP Fund | Full Name | Tracks |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Large-caps (SPY) | C Fund | Common Stock Index Fund | S&P 500 |
| US Small-caps (IWM) | S Fund | Small Cap Stock Index Fund | Dow Jones US Completion TSM Index |
| Developed Markets (EFA) | I Fund | International Stock Index Fund | MSCI EAFE Index |
| Very Long US Bonds (EDV) | F Fund | Fixed Income Index Fund | Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index |
| Short US Income (SGOV) | G Fund | Government Securities Fund | Special US Treasury securities |
Switching Rules
- 1.Check the MooseCall each week (published every Thursday evening).
- 2.If the top-ranked Global Index asset has changed from the prior week, submit an interfund transfer to move 100% of your balance to the corresponding TSP fund.
- 3.If the top-ranked asset is unchanged, no action is required — hold your current position.
- 4.Transfers submitted before 12:00 noon Eastern time are processed at that day's closing price. Transfers after noon are processed the following business day.
- 5.Note: TSP participants are limited to two interfund transfers per calendar month (after which you may only move into the G Fund). Plan accordingly.
The TSP Model is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute personalised investment advice. TSP rules and fund offerings may change; always verify current TSP regulations at tsp.gov.