Latest data compilation and notes.
03/27/2026
The Thrift Savings Plan is the government’s 401K-style retirement plan for Federal employees only and not available to the general public. TSP Moose is a Thrift Savings Plan momentum model that compares the five TSP index funds-- cash (G), fixed income (F), US large-caps (C), US small-caps (S), and International stocks (I) with with four globally diversified "Lifetime" portfolios-- very aggressive (L2050), aggressive (L2040) moderate (L2030) and conservative (L Income). The TSP model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
The Model Framework selects the asset with the best momentum, technicals,and recent price action in which to invest 100% of the portfolio. Momentum is ranked according to Confidence Index, Technical Strength, and Fed Monetary policy. The Donchian 20-day system is used to set stops. In addition, RSI and PMO are used to filter switch signals.
International Equities (Fund I) lead in overall confidence, rate of change, technical strength, and in positive PMO but are fading having recently triggered a stop-loss.
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
Performance-wise, Fund I leads over the last two weeks, but Fund S leads over 13, 26, 39 and 52 weeks. It also outperforms over three-years.
Best Alternatives: Cash. Aggressive Lifetime outperforms more moderate B&H portfolios, but the TSP model year-to-date outperforms all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES model in a major way.
THIS WEEK a 1st MIXED-Risk week after 3 Risk-OFF weeks. US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, US Bonds DOWN and Gold UP.
The TSP Model HOLDS Cash (G Fund) having switched from #1 International Equities (I Fund) via stop-loss 3/3/26.
TSP MOOSE YTD +4%
L2030 (Conservative B&H) -2%
L2040 (Moderate B&H) -3%
L2050 (Growth B&H ) -3%
L2060 (Aggressive B&H) -4%
The TSP Model is outperforming all Lifetime allocations.
For Buy and Hold investors, Aggressive porfolios are now underperforming Conservative.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
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