Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Model
Decision Moose Framework & Thrift Savings Plan Investors
The TSP Model uses the same momentum framework as the Global Index Model applying it to the specific Funds offered under the Thrift Savings Plan to Federal employees and military personnel. The two timing models are similar but not identical. TSP does not include a gold fund and it has one international equity fund instead of two. In addition the TSP small-cap fund (S) is more appropriately a small-midcap or residual fund (Total US equities minus the S&P500) and not comparable to the Global Index fund's Russell 2000 small-cap fund (IWM). These operational differences may lead to timing differences between the two.
What Is the Thrift Savings Plan?
The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is the retirement savings programme for US federal civilian employees and uniformed services members. It offers five core index funds — C, S, I, F, and G — plus Lifecycle (L) funds. With over $800 billion in assets, it is one of the largest defined-contribution plans in the world. TSP participants can move between funds via interfund transfers, making it well-suited to a momentum-based rotation strategy. Note: TSP intra-fund switch restrictions (2 per calendar month) exist but rarely come into play. TSP is also priced end-of-day. Switches ordered before noon happen at that day's closing price. Switches made after noon are priced at the following day's close.Current Investment Strategy (10/30/2026)
CURRENT TSP Model Signal: HOLD C Fund (US Large-caps)
THIS WEEK: 2nd MIXED-Risk week in a row. US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds UP and Gold DOWN
US LARGE CAPS (C) are the best TSP asset we monitor. Positives: CI% is max. Technical strength is max and bullish (>60), and PMO is positive (>0). Technical strength and PMO are tops in the model. Fed rate hikes strengthen the Dollar and make dollar-denominated assets like US Large-caps (Fund C) more attractive than foreign equities (Fund I) and Small-caps (Fund S. Negatives: PMO is weak and deteriorating. RSI is bearish (<50). SPY also touched a 20-day low (stop-loss) intraday on Friday but closed above it negating the stop for now. BEST ALTERNATIVE: Cash (G) is the only other timing choice in the model for which a positive PMO is improving. OVERALL: aggressive Lifetime Portfolios are outperforming TSP timing and the more moderate B&H portfolios. OVERALL, aggressive Lifetime Portfolios are outperforming TSP timing and the more moderate B&H portfolios.max
| CI% | Fund | ROC | TS+ | READ | RSI | PMO | +/- | condition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% | US Large-caps (C) | 14% | 70% | bullish | 40.7 | 0.11 | positive | deteriorating |
| 2 | 75% | Lifetime 2060 | 11% | 50% | bullish | 40.5 | -0.32 | negative | deteriorating |
| 3 | 63% | US Small-caps (S) | 11% | 38% | bearish | 45.7 | -0.68 | negative | improving |
| 4 | 60% | Lifetime 2050 | 9% | 50% | neutral | 41.2 | -0.24 | negative | deteriorating |
| 5 | 53% | Lifetime 2040 | 8% | 53% | neutral | 41.5 | -0.18 | negative | deteriorating |
| 6 | 44% | International Fund (I) | 8% | 35% | bearish | 38.2 | -0.84 | negative | deteriorating |
| 7 | 42% | Lifetime 2030 | 6% | 59% | neutral | 42.5 | -0.08 | negative | deteriorating |
| 8 | 23% | Long-term Inc (L) | 3% | 68% | bullish | 45.6 | 0.05 | positive | deteriorating |
| 9 | 5% | Short-term Inc (G) | 1% | 101% | very bullish | 100.0 | 0.21 | positive | improving |
| 10 | -38% | Fixed Income (F) | -3% | 24% | bearish | 66.5 | 0.08 | positive | improving |
TSP Performance Progression
I Fund remains best YTD and over 52 weeks and 3 years, but C Fund has overtaken it of late and is best over 13, 26 and 39 weeks, 26 being a key metric in determining current model confidence (CI).
| Fund | THIS | LAST | 13wk | 26wk | 39wk | 52wk | YTD | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | International Fund (I) | -0.1% | -1.0% | -1.3% | 1.5% | 9.0% | 17.7% | 13.1% | 43.3% |
| 2 | Lifetime 2060 | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.2% | 4.5% | 9.7% | 15.2% | 12.2% | 35.9% |
| 3 | US Large-caps (C) | -0.6% | -0.5% | 1.2% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 33.1% |
| 4 | US Small-caps (S) | 0.5% | 1.3% | -3.5% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 27.0% |
| 5 | Lifetime 2050 | -0.2% | -0.3% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 31.0% |
| 6 | Lifetime 2040 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 3.8% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 28.3% |
| 7 | Lifetime 2030 | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 24.7% |
| 8 | Long-term Inc (L) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 16.4% |
| 9 | Short-term Inc (G) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 9.3% |
| 10 | Fixed Income (F) | 0.6% | 0.5% | -0.2% | -1.2% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -0.3% | 6.1% |
Performance: Timing vs. Lifetime
In the '22 bear market TSP Moose (+4.8%) outperformed Aggressive B&H (-15.9%). Since then TSP has lagged Lifetime due to massive government spending.
| Strategy | 2026 ytd | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L2060 | 12.2% | 22.6% | 16.3% | 23.3% | -15.9% | 19.9% | new | -- | -- | -- |
| L2050 | 10.5% | 19.7% | 14.0% | 20.0% | -13.4% | 16.3% | 14.8% | 23.3% | -6.0% | 18.8% |
| L2040 | 9.7% | 17.8% | 12.9% | 18.1% | -11.4% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 20.7% | -4.9% | 16.8% |
| L2030 | 8.4% | 15.6% | 11.5% | 16.6% | -9.0% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 17.6% | -3.6% | 14.5% |
| TSP Moose | 6.4% | 15.3% | 11.8% | 16.5% | -3.4% | 13.3% | 21.8% | 14.9% | 6.5% | 21.0% |
The TSP Model is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute personalised investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.