Latest data compilation and notes.
06/26/2026
The Thrift Savings Plan is the government’s 401K-style retirement plan for Federal employees only and not available to the general public. TSP Moose is a Thrift Savings Plan momentum model that compares the five TSP index funds-- cash (G), fixed income (F), US large-caps (C), US small-caps (S), and International stocks (I) with with four globally diversified "Lifetime" portfolios-- very aggressive (L2050), aggressive (L2040) moderate (L2030) and conservative (L Income). The TSP model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
The Model Framework selects the asset with the best momentum, technicals,and recent price action in which to invest 100% of the portfolio. Momentum is ranked according to Confidence Index, Technical Strength, and Fed Monetary policy. The Donchian 20-day system is used to set stops. In addition, RSI and PMO are used to filter switch signals.
THIS WEEK the first Risk-ON week after 3 Risk-OFF:
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks DOWN, Bonds UP and Gold DOWN.
This week: *The TSP Model holds International equities (Fund I) via buy-stop since 4/8/26 @60.20.)
International Equities (Fund I) lead in overall confidence, and rate of change. PMO is positive and improving. Technicals as very bullish.
Best Alternative: Lately US small caps have the highest technical strength, and Price Momentum (PMO).
Overall, however, aggressive Lifetime Portfolios outperform more moderate B&H portfolios.
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
Performance leader Fund I no longer leads YTD after a poor week 6/26, but it still leads over 26, 39 and 52 weeks and 3 years. Lately, US small caps have garnered interest over the last 2 and 13 weeks and may be poised to take over the #1 spot.
Performance leader Fund I no longer leads YTD after a poor week 6/26, but it still leads over 26, 39 and 52 weeks and 3 years. Lately, US small caps have garnered interest over the last 2 and 13 weeks and may be poised to take over the #1 spot.
The TSP Model HOLDS International (I Fund) having switched via stop-loss 4/8/26.
L2060 (Aggressive B&H) +12%
TSP MOOSE YTD +10%
L2050 (Growth B&H ) +10%
L2040 (Moderate B&H) +9%
L2030 (Conservative B&H) +7%
The TSP Model is only under-performing the most aggressive Lifetime allocations since (4/24)
For Buy and Hold investors, Aggressive portfolios continue to outperform Conservative.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
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