Latest data compilation and notes.
03/06/2026
The Thrift Savings Plan is the government’s 401K-style retirement plan for Federal employees only and not available to the general public. TSP Moose is a Thrift Savings Plan momentum model that compares the five TSP index funds-- cash (G), fixed income (F), US large-caps (C), US small-caps (S), and International stocks (I) with with four globally diversified "Lifetime" portfolios-- very aggressive (L2050), aggressive (L2040) moderate (L2030) and conservative (L Income). The TSP model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
The Model Framework selects the asset with the best momentum, technicals,and recent price action in which to invest 100% of the portfolio. Momentum is ranked according to Confidence Index, Technical Strength, and Fed Monetary policy. The Donchian 20-day system is used to set stops. In addition, RSI and PMO are used to filter switch signals.
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
Despite triggering a stop-loss this week, International Equities (Fund I) leads in overall confidence, rate of change, technical strength, and in improving PMO. Performance-wise, Fund I leads year-to-date, over the last two weeks, and over 13, 26, 39 and 52 weeks. It also outperforms over three-years. Fund I is however, is no longer overbought, or due for a dip.
Best Alternatives: G Fund. Aggressive Lifetime outperforms more moderate B&H portfolios, but the TSP model outperforms all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES model.
THIS WEEK’s Risk-OFF week follows 1 MIXED-Risk week. US Stocks DOWN, Foreign Stocks DOWN, US Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
The TSP Model SWITCHES to Cash (G Fund) from #1 International Equities (I Fund) via stop-loss 3/3/26.
TSP MOOSE YTD +3%
L2060 (Aggressive B&H) +1%
L2050 (Growth B&H ) +1%
L2040 (Moderate B&H) +1%
L2030 (Conservative B&H) +1%
The TSP Model is outperforming more aggressive Lifetime allocations.
For Buy and Hold investors, Aggressive porfolios are outperforming Conservative.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
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