Latest data compilation and notes.
04/10/2026
Index Moose is an ETF-based momentum model that compares the relative strength of stocks in the US (SPY, IWM), Emerging markets (EEM), Developed offshore markets (EFA), Short & Long US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the best place to invest your money. Index Moose uses momentum to rank US and international equities, long bonds, cash and gold. It was originally developed in 1992 as a basis for a newsletter on global financial markets. Switches have been published live on the internet since October 1996. Index Moose devotes 100% of the portfolio to the #1 ranked fund. The USES model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
The Model Framework selects the asset with the best momentum, technicals,and recent price action in which to invest 100% of the portfolio. Momentum is ranked according to Confidence Index, Technical Strength, and Fed Monetary policy. The Donchian 20-day system is used to set stops. In addition, RSI and PMO are used to filter switch signals.
Gold leads in overall confidence and rate of change, but not in technical strength or positive PMO. GLD is working off a stop loss, however, which keeps cash in the index model’s top position.
Best Alternative: All equities have lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. With the Iran/US war now stoking oil inflation fears and prompting Fed rate cut pessimism in 2026, gold has lost some luster. Cash has become the safer choice until the war is over.
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
Performance-wise, gold leads year-to-date, and over 13, 26, 39 and 52 weeks. It also outperforms over three-years. The last quarter has been volatile, with Foreign equities besting US equities due to a weaker Dollar from tariffs and US small caps showing occasional rotational strength domestically.
Best Alternatives: Over the last two weeks cash has become the safer choice until gold triggers a buy-stop.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way.
THIS WEEK saw a 2nd Risk-ON week in a row. US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks UP, Bonds UP and Gold UP.
The Global Index Model HOLDS Cash via stop since 3/18/26.)
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. Index Moose HOLDS Cash via stop since 3/18/26.
INDEX MOOSE YTD +12%
AOA ( Aggressive B&H) +2%
AOM (Moderate B&H) +1%
SPY (Equity benchmark) -0%
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in 2026. Emerging markets (EEM) and US small caps (IWM) were challenging gold, but it continues to lead in technical strength, PMO, and quarterly performance.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
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