Global Index Model
A 34-Year Momentum-Based Timing Model
The Decision Moose Global Index Model is the flagship timing system at the heart of the MooseCalls newsletter. Since 1992, it has tracked a universe of major global asset classes — equities, bonds, gold, and cash — and each week identifies the single best-positioned asset based on momentum, trend strength, and relative performance.
How the Model Works
The model applies a multi-factor momentum framework to a basket of seven global index ETFs. Each week, every asset is scored across four dimensions: Confidence Index (CI%), Technical Strength (TS+), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO). The asset with the highest confidence score becomes the model's top-ranked holding until another asset surpasses it or until it triggers a stop-loss using a standard 20-day price-channel.
CI% (Confidence Index percentage) is the model's primary signal. It denotes the relative confidence the model places in each of its components-- rooted in their (smoothed) rate of change (ROC) over a period of approximately six months. CI% for each asset is relative to the grouping it is in. A positive CI% indicates the asset is in an uptrend; a negative CI% signals a downtrend. The model rotates into whichever asset has the highest CI% each week.
TS+ (Technical Strength) combines several moving averages and regression analysis to calibrate price movement over various time periods, consolidating them into an overall technical score. A TS+ above 60% is considered bullish and supports an uptrend. A TS+ below 40% is considered bearish and supports a downtrend. RSI and PMO are short-term momentum calculations used to confirm the primary signals and to assist in switch timing. RSI is a 14-day momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. It ranges from 0 to 100 and helps identify potentially overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) securities. PMO measures the smoothed rate of change in an asset's price and oscillates around a zero line. Positive PMO signals an uptrend, negative PMO a downtrend. Because the calculation starts from a percentage price change (rather than absolute price), PMO is normalized allowing direct comparison among different stocks, indexes, or asset classes and ranking by relative strength.
Current Investment Strategy (10/30/2026)
THIS WEEK: 2nd MIXED-Risk week in a row. US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds UP and Gold DOWN
THE GLOBAL INDEX TIMING MODEL SWITCHED to US Large-caps (SPY) on 10/05/2026.
The best Global asset we monitor is still US Large-caps (SPY). Positives: CI% is max. Technical strength is bullish (>60), and PMO is positive (>0). Negatives: PMO is weak and deteriorating. RSI is bearish (<50). SPY also touched a 20-day low (stop-loss) intraday on Friday but closed above it negating the stop for now. BEST ALTERNATIVE: SGOV (cash) is the only other asset in this model with a positive CI%, a TS+ greater than 50%, and a positive PMO.
| CI% | FUND | TS+ | READ | RSI | PMO | +/- | condition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% | US Large-caps (SPY) | 70% | bullish | 40.4 | 0.09 | positive | deteriorating |
| 2 | 56% | US Small-caps (IWM) | 31% | bearish | 49.5 | -0.84 | negative | improving |
| 3 | 54% | Emerging Markets (EEM) | 21% | bearish | 33.6 | -1.91 | negative | deteriorating |
| 4 | 30% | Developed Markets (EFA) | 43% | neutral | 46.6 | -0.54 | negative | improving |
| 5 | 18% | Short US Income (SGOV) | 93% | very bullish | 81.8 | 0.14 | positive | deteriorating |
| 6 | -103% | Very Long US Bonds (EDV) | 45% | neutral | 61.6 | 0.50 | positive | improving |
| 7 | -174% | Gold Bullion (GLD) | 6% | very bearish | 30.3 | -1.79 | negative | deteriorating |
ETF Performance Progression
Performance-wise, SPY leads over the 13, 26, and 39 weeks with 26w being a key metric in determining model confidence. EEM continues to hold year-to-date and 52-week honors.
| YTD | FUND | 10/09/26 | 10/02/26 | 13wk | 26wk | 39wk | 52wk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13.5% | US Small-caps (IWM) | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | -0.5% | 8.3% | 14.6% |
| 2 | 11.6% | Emerging Markets (EEM) | -1.6% | -1.3% | -4.0% | -7.8% | 3.9% | 12.7% |
| 3 | 10.8% | US Large-caps (SPY) | -0.6% | -0.4% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 10.1% | 12.0% |
| 4 | 7.6% | Developed Markets (EFA) | 0.7% | -0.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 13.3% |
| 5 | 0.3% | Short US Income (SGOV) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% |
| 6 | -8.8% | Very Long US Bonds (EDV) | 0.4% | 2.5% | -3.5% | -4.2% | -5.0% | -9.7% |
| 7 | -10.2% | Gold Bullion (GLD) | -3.0% | -4.0% | -16.0% | -17.6% | -20.0% | -3.4% |
Performance: Timing vs Buy & Hold
Index Moose is outperforming diversified buy-and-hold year-to-date in 2026.
| Strategy | 2026 ytd | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index Moose | 19.5% | 58.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | -16.3% | 11.7% | 13.2% | -6.5% | 5.1% | 9.0% |
| Aggressive G&I (AOA) | 7.4% | 19.3% | 11.5% | 15.6% | -17.9% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 12.5% | -6.2% | 8.0% |
| Moderate G&I (AOM) | 2.1% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 9.2% | -16.4% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 19.5% | -9.9% | 14.1% |
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The Global Index Model is an educational and informational tool. It does not constitute personalised investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.