Latest data compilation and notes.
07/03/2026
Index Moose is an ETF-based momentum model that compares the relative strength of stocks in the US (SPY, IWM), Emerging markets (EEM), Developed offshore markets (EFA), Short & Long US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the best place to invest your money. Index Moose uses momentum to rank US and international equities, long bonds, cash and gold. It was originally developed in 1992 as a basis for a newsletter on global financial markets. Switches have been published live on the internet since October 1996. Index Moose devotes 100% of the portfolio to the #1 ranked fund. The USES model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
TOP Index Model Move: HOLD Emerging Markets (EEM)
THIS WEEK the first MIXED-Risk week after 1 Risk-ON:
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds UP and Gold UP.
The Global Index Model HOLDS Emerging Markets (EEM) since 4/13/2026.
Emerging Markets lead in overall confidence rate of change and positive PMO.
Best Alternative: Small caps are technically sound (very bullish) with a positive improving PMO.
Volatility Alert: It is likely EEM will fill its latest downside gaps (57-59) and retest its 50-day before the US/Iran war is put to bed.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way.
Performance-wise, IWM takes over year-to-date honors this week. and over 26, 39 weeks. EEM is second YTD and fading recently with offshore rate hikes. It still leads over 29 and 52 weeks. The last quarter has been volatile, with Foreign equities besting US equities due to a weaker Dollar from tariffs and US small caps showing occasional rotational strength domestically.
THIS WEEK the first MIXED-Risk week after 1 Risk-ON:
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds UP and Gold UP.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. Index Moose HOLDS Cash via stop since 3/18/26.
INDEX MOOSE YTD +21%
AOA ( Aggressive B&H) +8%
AOM (Moderate B&H) +33%
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
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