Latest data compilation and notes.
03/27/2026
Index Moose is an ETF-based momentum model that compares the relative strength of stocks in the US (SPY, IWM), Emerging markets (EEM), Developed offshore markets (EFA), Short & Long US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the best place to invest your money. Index Moose uses momentum to rank US and international equities, long bonds, cash and gold. It was originally developed in 1992 as a basis for a newsletter on global financial markets. Switches have been published live on the internet since October 1996. Index Moose devotes 100% of the portfolio to the #1 ranked fund. The USES model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
The Model Framework selects the asset with the best momentum, technicals,and recent price action in which to invest 100% of the portfolio. Momentum is ranked according to Confidence Index, Technical Strength, and Fed Monetary policy. The Donchian 20-day system is used to set stops. In addition, RSI and PMO are used to filter switch signals.
Gold leads in overall confidence, but not technical strength or PMO. MMF Cash is now the model's top choice since GLD triggered several stop losses. All ETFs in the model are working off stop-losses making cash the preferred alternative until a buy-stop is triggered in one of the other ETFs.
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
Performance-wise, gold leads year-to-date and over 26, 39 and 52 weeks. It also outperforms over three-years.
Best Alternatives: Over the last two weeks however, cash has become the safer choice until the war is over. US Stocks were bullish entering 2026 but have been fading since the war with Iran. In fact, US equities, especially in the Mag 7 growth category have been hung-over from year-end valuation constraints. Small caps have shown sporadic strength against SPY, but all equities have lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. Now that Powell has put the kabash on Fed rate cut optimism in 2026 gold has lost its luster.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way.
THIS WEEK a 1st MIXED-Risk week after 3 Risk-OFF weeks. US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, US Bonds DOWN and Gold UP.
The Global Index Model HOLDS Cash via stop since 3/18/26.)
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. Index Moose HOLDS Cash via stop since 3/18/26.
INDEX MOOSE YTD +12%
AOM (Moderate B&H) -2%
AOA (Aggressive B&H) -4%
SPY (Equity benchmark) -7%
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in 2026. Emerging markets (EEM) and US small caps (IWM) were challenging gold, but it continues to lead in technical strength, PMO, and quarterly performance.
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
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