Latest data compilation and notes.
05/15/2026
Index Moose is an ETF-based momentum model that compares the relative strength of stocks in the US (SPY, IWM), Emerging markets (EEM), Developed offshore markets (EFA), Short & Long US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the best place to invest your money. Index Moose uses momentum to rank US and international equities, long bonds, cash and gold. It was originally developed in 1992 as a basis for a newsletter on global financial markets. Switches have been published live on the internet since October 1996. Index Moose devotes 100% of the portfolio to the #1 ranked fund. The USES model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
THIS WEEK saw a Risk-OFF week after 2 Risk-ON:
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks DOWN, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
The Global Index Model HOLDS Emerging Markets (EEM) since 4/13/2026.
Emerging Markets lead in overall confidence and rate of change, technical strength and positive PMO.
Best Alternative: Gold and Small caps are fading. US Large-caps are getting modest interest recently.
Volatility Alert: It is likely EEM will fill its latest downside gaps and retest its 50-day before the US/Iran war is put to bed.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way.
Performance data tells us what is and isn't working over various time frames. Sticking with what works is the basis of momentum investing.
Performance-wise, EEM leads year-to-date and the past two weeks, over 26, and 52 weeks. IWM is a close second YTD outperforming in the past two weeks as GLD fades.
The last quarter has been volatile, with Foreign equities besting US equities due to a weaker Dollar from tariffs and US small caps showing occasional rotational strength domestically
THIS WEEK saw a Risk-OFF week after 2 Risk-ON:
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks DOWN, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. Index Moose HOLDS Cash via stop since 3/18/26.
INDEX MOOSE YTD +20%
AOA ( Aggressive B&H) +7%
AOM (Moderate B&H) +3%
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
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