Latest data compilation and notes.
08/07/2026
Index Moose is an ETF-based momentum model that compares the relative strength of stocks in the US (SPY, IWM), Emerging markets (EEM), Developed offshore markets (EFA), Short & Long US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the best place to invest your money. Index Moose uses momentum to rank US and international equities, long bonds, cash and gold. It was originally developed in 1992 as a basis for a newsletter on global financial markets. Switches have been published live on the internet since October 1996. Index Moose devotes 100% of the portfolio to the #1 ranked fund. The USES model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
THIS WEEK: 2nd Risk-ON week after two Risk-OFF weeks.
US Stocks UP Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds UP and Gold UP
The Global Index Model HOLDS US Small-caps (IWM) 7/13/2026.
IWM leads in overall confidence among assets not on a buy-stop. It also leads in positive PMO. Technical strength is very bullish. IWM also a triggered a stop-loss as yet unconfirmed— (PMO still positive, 50-day still rising, closing price above 50-day in 5 of last 7 days and above initial stop-loss seven of seven days.)
The best regional alternative this week is IEV which gave a buy-stop 7/6 and is rallying with lower oil prices this week. That however may be temporary. The best Index alternative this week is Developed Markets (EFA) followed by US large caps (SPY).
Volatility Alert: It is likely IWM will fill its latest downside gap (249-259) and retest its 200-day before the US/Iran war is put to bed.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. *stop-loss active **buy-stop active ***note
Performance-wise, IWM holds year-to-date honors this week. and over 26 and 52 weeks. EEM is second YTD. The last quarter has been volatile, with Foreign equities initially besting US equities due to a weaker Dollar from tariffs and US small caps showing occasional rotational strength domestically.
THIS WEEK: 2nd Risk-ON week after two Risk-OFF weeks.
US Stocks UP Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds UP and Gold UP
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. Index Moose HOLDS Cash via stop since 3/18/26.
INDEX MOOSE YTD +22%
AOA ( Aggressive B&H) +11%
AOM (Moderate B&H) +5%
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
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