Latest data compilation and notes.
09/04/2026
Index Moose is an ETF-based momentum model that compares the relative strength of stocks in the US (SPY, IWM), Emerging markets (EEM), Developed offshore markets (EFA), Short & Long US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the best place to invest your money. Index Moose uses momentum to rank US and international equities, long bonds, cash and gold. It was originally developed in 1992 as a basis for a newsletter on global financial markets. Switches have been published live on the internet since October 1996. Index Moose devotes 100% of the portfolio to the #1 ranked fund. The USES model and its daily signal are provided by a private entity as a guideline only for free. Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
THIS WEEK: 2nd MIXED-Risk week in a row.
US Stocks FLAT, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN
The Global Index Model HOLDS US Small-caps (IWM) 7/13/2026.
Equities are still the best place to be, beating cash, bonds, and gold, but which equities? The index model alternative over the last six months per CI is US Small-caps (IWM), but its technical and PMO scores continue to lag. Moreover, there has been a 4-week rotation from US (dollar-based) assets into foreign assets and gold. US large-caps have the highest Technical Strength (TS) due to technology, but the best index PMO among those more attractive than cash is Emerging Markets (EEM). Incumbent #1 US small-caps are still technically bullish with a positive PMO but have eroded over the last 3 weeks due to growing worries about a September Fed rate hike. A Fed rate hike would help the Dollar and pressure US equities, especially small caps. Next week’s consumer price inflation report will help clarify the fed’s next move.
Best Alternative: Emerging Markets (EEM), Developed Markets (EFA) and gold (GLD) are benefitting from US government currency interventions these days. It remains to be seen how permanent their impact may be.
Volatility Alert: IWM has an unfilled downside gap (249-259) from April 8.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. *stop-loss, **buy-stop, ***note
Performance-wise, EEM holds year-to-date 26, 39 and 52-week honors this week, but incumbent IWM is a close second. The last quarter has been volatile, with Foreign equities currently besting US equities due to a weaker Dollar from tariffs and from FedSpeak. US small caps show occasional rotational strength domestically.
THIS WEEK: 2nd MIXED-Risk week in a row.
US Stocks FLAT, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. Index Moose HOLDS Cash via stop since 3/18/26.
INDEX MOOSE YTD +26%
AOA ( Aggressive B&H) +11%
AOM (Moderate B&H) +4%
One of the reasons for this site is to maintain a record of the comparative performance of market timing versus buy and hold investment strategies.. Transaction listings since the models switched from weekly to daily are recorded below.
Copyright © 2026 Decision Moose - All Rights Reserved.