Global Index Model
A 34-Year Momentum-Based Timing Model
The Decision Moose Global Index Model is the flagship timing system at the heart of every MooseCall. Since 1992, it has tracked a universe of major global asset classes — equities, bonds, gold, and cash — and each week identifies the single best-positioned asset based on momentum, trend strength, and relative performance.
How the Model Works
The model applies a multi-factor momentum framework to a basket of seven global index ETFs. Each week, every asset is scored across four dimensions: Composite Index (CI%), Trend Score (TS+), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO). The asset with the highest composite score becomes the model's top-ranked holding.
The CI% (Composite Index percentage) is the primary signal. It measures the asset's overall momentum on a scale from roughly -200% (deeply bearish) to +100% (strongly bullish). A positive CI% indicates the asset is in an uptrend; a negative CI% signals a downtrend. The model rotates into whichever asset has the highest CI% each week.
The TS+ (Trend Score) measures how much of the asset's price history is above its moving average — expressed as a percentage. A TS+ above 50% means the majority of the price history supports an uptrend. Combined with RSI and PMO, it provides a complete picture of momentum health.
Asset Classes Covered
The Global Index Model tracks seven major asset classes, each represented by a liquid, low-cost ETF:
| Rank | ETF | Asset Class | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SPY | US Large-Cap Equities | S&P 500 index — the benchmark for US large-cap stocks |
| 2 | EEM | Emerging Market Equities | Broad emerging markets index covering 24 developing economies |
| 3 | IWM | US Small-Cap Equities | Russell 2000 index — US small-cap stocks with higher growth potential |
| 4 | SGOV | Short-Term US Treasuries | 0–3 month T-bills — the safe-haven cash equivalent |
| 5 | EFA | Developed Market Equities | MSCI EAFE index — Europe, Australasia, and Far East equities |
| 6 | EDV | Extended Duration US Bonds | 25–30 year US Treasury bonds — maximum interest rate sensitivity |
| 7 | GLD | Gold Bullion | Physical gold — inflation hedge and crisis asset |
34-Year Track Record
The model has been running continuously since 1992. Over that period it has navigated every major market cycle — the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic selloff, and multiple bull markets — by rotating out of falling assets and into rising ones.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The Global Index Model is an educational and informational tool. It does not constitute personalised investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.