Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- SEP.04.2026
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION— MIXED-Risk (2)
THIS WEEK: 2nd MIXED-Risk week in a row.
US Stocks FLAT, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN
MARKET CAUTION PERSISTS
US equities looked to be the proverbial “Deer in the headlights” this week as they awaited Friday’s August jobs report. Prices dropped through Tuesday, rallied through Thursday, and finally settled lower on Friday’s redemptive payroll assessment. US large-caps and small-caps both finished the week up fractionally (+0.1%), undecided on whether the good job news would ultimately translate into good Fed news. (Ultimately, the odds of a rate hike at the 9/16 FOMC meeting remain more or less unchanged at 59%.) The US Dollar (-0.4%) lost ground, as did US long bonds (-0.6%). The yields on both cash (3.76%) and the ten-year (4.78%) rose as the yield curve (105 bps) steepened. The weaker Dollar juiced commodity prices (+3.6%) which also benefited from a surge in oil prices (+9.5%). Gold (-0.5%) still fearing a Fed rate hike, lost ground for a second week. Elsewhere, offshore equities mostly enjoyed the weaker Dollar with Latin America (+4.1%), Japan (+2.5%) and Asia-Pacific (+2.3%) up, and only Europe (-0.3%) down. Next week’s consumer inflation report will provide more clarity as to the Fed’s next move. There were no changes to the models this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (3 of 4 and up this week). War has the Baltic Dry Index down over the last quarter, while oil, copper prices and bond yields are higher, improving the outlook to positive.
INFLATION: WTI oil prices surged over 9% this week and are now up this quarter and back above $91 per barrel. Global inflation per the Fed Check (84) increasingly warrants tightening.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Global Expansion Proceeds, US Jobs Rebound. Yield curve positive and steepening. Recession chances a year out shrinking and minimal. Money market system healthy per SOFR-T spread. Above average US growth prospects. GDP Now estimate (Q3) up to 4.7% as of 9/03.
FEDERAL RESERVE: This week, a dovish off-set from Fed Governor Waller curbed fears of a rate hike at the 9/16 FOMC meeting and weakened the Dollar -0.4%). By December, at least one Fed rate HIKE (88%) and possibly two are likely. The Fed's balance sheet currently stands at $6.74 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Fed Check (84) remains hawkish since 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: There were no changes to the models this week pending next week’s inflation report.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 9/04/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD US Small-Caps (IWM)
The Global Index Model HOLDS US Small-caps (IWM) 7/13/2026.
Equities are still the best place to be, beating cash, bonds, and gold, but which equities? The index model's top choice over the last six months per CI is US Small-caps (IWM), but its technical and PMO scores continue to lag. Moreover, there has been a 4-week rotation from US (dollar-based) assets into foreign assets and gold. US large-caps have the highest Technical Strength (TS) due to technology, but the best index PMO among those more attractive than cash is Emerging Markets (EEM). Incumbent #1 US small-caps are still technically bullish with a positive PMO but have eroded over the last 3 weeks due to growing worries about a September Fed rate hike. A Fed rate hike would help the Dollar and pressure US equities, especially small caps. Next week’s consumer price inflation report will help clarify the fed’s next move.
Best Alternative: Emerging Markets (EEM), Developed Markets (EFA) and gold (GLD) are benefiting from US government currency interventions these days. It remains to be seen how permanent their impact may be.
Volatility Alert: IWM has an unfilled downside gap (249-259) from April 8.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. *stop-loss, **buy-stop, ***note
PERFORMANCE YTD 9/04/26:
INDEX MOOSE +24%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +11%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +4%
SPY BENCHMARK +13%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities did well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies. Rate increases in June in Europe and Japan dampened interest in offshore equities in favor of US small caps.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.