Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Producer Prices Roil the Markets
Market Thumbnail: 2/29/2026
The week started with the markets sorting out the SCOTUS decision on tariffs and ended with hot producer price data threatening Fed rate cut intentions in 2026. US equities backed off with small-caps (-1.2%) leading the way lower over large (-0.5%). Very long US bonds rallied (+2.1%) while the 10-year yield dropped to 3.96% and the cash yield dipped to 3.58%. The negativity was assisted by another partial government shut-down affecting DHS functions related to FEMA, TSA and Coast Guard. It is not expected to weaken the economy as much as the Q4 shutdown, but the motivation is the same: election year shenanigans. The Dollar was flat this week, but hard assets gold (+3.2%), commodities (+2.0%) and oil (+1.4%) all rallied. Offshore, Latin equities (-1.6%) fell, but Japan (+1.0%), Asia-Pacific (+0.6%) and Europe (+0.1%). gained. No model changes this week.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 2/29/2026
Gold Recovers
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual gain for any asset in any of our models in thirty years. 2026 began as 2025 ended-- with a parabolic rise in gold, until it suffered an ugly two-day setback in February. It recovered, however, and remains 22% higher two months into 2026. Elsewhere, the interest in foreign equities continues. International stocks, both emerging and developed, are looking attractive. US equities are
PERFORMANCE YTD 2/22/26:
INDEX MOOSE +22%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +4%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +3%
SPY BENCHMARK -1%
2026: Strong gold keeps the Index model in bullion to start 2026. US small caps and or emerging markets may be poised to take over if GLD falters. One more Fed rate cut looks possible but only after Powell has exited in June. Trillions in US federal deficit spending show no signs of abating, but tariffs are putting a slight dent in it.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.