Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Time For Talk
Market Thumbnail: 3/27/2026
Negotiations began in the US/Iran Middle East war this week creating a mixed risk week in the financial world. Ten days of talks between the US and Iran are planned, during which Iranian energy and power assets will be exempt from bombing. What’s left of Iran’s military capabilities however will be erased. Commodities (+0.6%) and oil (+2.3%) continued to inflate, once again pushing long bonds (-0.3%) lower and yields higher. The 10-year yield rose to 4.44% and the cash yield bumped up to 3.61%, but equities managed some optimism for the first time in three weeks anyway, as the Straits of Hormuz south of Iran, were briefly opened to a few western tankers “as a gift”. US large caps (-2.2%) had another minus 2% week but small-caps (+0.4%) managed a fractional gain. Europe (+0.4%) and Japan (+0.3%), also rose fractionally, enthused by Latin America’s (+4.0%) vibrance but chastened by the negativity in Asia-Pacific (-1.8%). The Dollar rose 0.6%, but gold (+0.3%) managed to get a bid anyway. No model changes this week—all three are in cash working off stop-losses.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION—MIXED Risk (1)
THIS WEEK a 1st MIXED-Risk week after 3 Risk-OFF weeks. US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, US Bonds DOWN and Gold UP.
GLOBAL ECONOMY STAYS “POSITIVE” (3 of 4).
War has the Baltic Dry Index up over the quarter, a positive along with 10-year US yields, and oil prices. Only copper is lower in the past quarter— a negative indication for global construction.
INFLATION: February EX-IM prices warm up. Commodity prices continue higher on the back of oil. Once Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil inflation should relent.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Light. Consumer Sentiment Positive But Deteriorating
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.66 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting (4/29). Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell in May. War has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) December Fed rate hike (27%) now outweighs chance of rate cut (4%), but “no change” outweighs both.
MOOSE INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: All three models have exited into cash since war broke out and are working off stop losses. All three are outperforming their benchmarks.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 3/27/2026
INDEX MODEL: Holding MMF Cash
THIS WEEK: Hold CASH since 3/18/26 via stop.
The Index Model had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual gain for any asset in any of our models in thirty years. 2026 began as 2025 ended-- with a parabolic rise in gold, until it suffered an ugly two-day setback in February. It recovered, but then war in Iran dinged it in March and the Fed abandoned it this week. Still, it remains 12% higher on the year and is close to oversold. Meanwhile, interest in equities has faded with the war. US and International stocks, both emerging and developed, are looking less attractive in light of the US/Iran war. As of 3/18, cash is the Index Model's preferred hold.
PERFORMANCE YTD 3/27/26:
INDEX MOOSE +12%
AOM (Moderate Growth) -2%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) -4%
SPY BENCHMARK -7%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty, and the model goes to cash.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.