Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Close Enough For Gubmint Work
Market Thumbnail: 4/2/2026
The equity markets declared an end to the latest Middle East conflict this week. It wasn’t an actual end, but the smart money evidently decided it was close enough for government work. After five weeks expecting the worst, the sun finally came out and by the weekend you might even have imagined that there were Easter bunnies hopping around— at least here in Washington, DC as tankers began to move ever so cautiously through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign stocks led the way higher, paced by Latin America (+5.1%). Europe (+4.8%) and Japan (+4.7%) also rallied, while Asia-Pacific (+2.2%) was more muted. Commodities (+0.8%) and oil (+11.0%) also continued to inflate, but long bonds (+0.3%) steadied. The 10-year yield fell to 4.31% while the cash yield held at 3.61%. US large caps (+3.4%) finally caught a break and kept up with small-caps (+3.4%). The Dollar rose fractionally (+0.1%), but gold (+3.5%) managed to get a solid bid. No model changes this week—all three are in cash working off stop-losses.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK-’S ACTION—Risk ON (1)
THIS WEEK saw a 1st Risk-ON week after a MIXED-Risk week. US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks UP, US UP and Gold UP.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK STAYS “POSITIVE” (3 of 4). War has the Baltic Dry Index up over the quarter, a positive along with 10-year US yields, and oil prices. Only copper is lower in the past quarter— a negative indication for global construction.
INFLATION: Oil back above $100.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Good Consumer Sentiment Positive But Deteriorating
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.68 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting (4/29). Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell in May. War has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) December Fed rate cut (19%) now outweighs chance of rate cut (11%), but “no change” (70%) outweighs both.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: All three models have exited into cash and are working off stop losses.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY4/2/2026
INDEX MODEL: Holding MMF Cash
THIS WEEK: Hold CASH since 3/18/26 via stop.
Gold (GLD) leads in overall confidence and rate of change, but not in technical strength or positive PMO. GLD is working off a stop loss, however, which keeps cash in the index model’s top position.
Best Alternative: Cash has become the safer choice until the war is over. All equities have lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. With the Iran/US war now stoking oil inflation fears and promting Fed rate cut pessimism in 2026, gold has lost some luster.
PERFORMANCE YTD 4/2/26:
INDEX MOOSE +12%
AOM (Moderate Growth) -1%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) -1%
SPY BENCHMARK -4%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty, and the model goes to cash. Now the war in Iran has solidified that psition.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.