Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- MAY.25.2026
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION—
THIS WEEK saw a Risk-ON week after 1 Risk-OFF:
US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks UP, Bonds UP and Gold DOWN.
VOLATILE EQUITIES END WELL
The US stock market experienced a volatile but ultimately resilient week. Rumors of a breakthrough in the US-Iran peace talks lowered oil prices and spurred equities. Friday saw a record low consumer sentiment number and an aggressive sell-off in the global government bond market, but equities held in there. In the US, small-caps (+2.7%) recovered all of last week’s hit and more and large caps (+0.9%) added to their gains. US long bond prices sank to a new ten-month low on Tuesday but had rallied (+1.8%) on the week by Friday. The US ten-year yield slipped 4 bps to 4.56% and the three-month yield fell 1 tick to 3.58%, flattening the yield curve to 98 bpts. After a dismal week last week, equities in Europe (+3.2%), Latin America (+1.4%), Asia-ex-Japan (+1.2%), and Japan (+0.6%) all recovered. The Dollar was flat (+0.0%), and gold bullion (-0.8%) continued lower. Commodities (-2.1%) pulled back, led by oil (-4.9%). One change to the models this week as the US Equity Strategy Model switches to Momentum.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (4 of 4). No change. War has the Baltic Dry Index, the 10-year US yield, and oil and copper prices all higher over the last 13 weeks.
INFLATION: Oil prices down 5% and below $100. Global inflation per Fed Check warrants tightening. No new inflation data, Next week: PCE.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Record low consumer confidence brings out bond vigilantes. Jobless claims up. Recession chance a year out minimal. Financial system health per SOFR-T spread, sound. GDP Now estimate (Q2) up: 4.3%.
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.72 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting (6/17). Kevin Warsh to replace Interim Chair Jerome Powell whenever. Iran war has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check (77) remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) December Fed rate HIKE (51%) now outweighs chance of a CUT (1%) and NO CHANGE. (48%)
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: One change. The TSP model holds International equities (I Fund). USES holds US small caps (IWM), and the GLOBAL Index model holds Emerging Markets (EEM).
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 5/22/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD Emerging Markets
THIS WEEK: HOLD EEM since 04/13/26. The model defaulted to the second choice (EEM) behind bullion (GLD) in mid-April due to performance. EEM advanced to #1 rank in mid-May.
Best Alternative: Emerging Markets gapped higher triggering a buy-stop 4/8/26. All US equities lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. With the Iran/US war now stoking oil inflation fears and prompting Fed rate cut pessimism in 2026, gold lost some luster. Developed International equities are also weakening due to energy supply concerns in Europe and Asia.
PERFORMANCE YTD 5/22/26:
INDEX MOOSE +21%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +8%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +4%
SPY BENCHMARK +9%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities have done well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.