Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- SEP.11.2026
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION— Risk-OFF (1)
THIS WEEK: 1st Risk-OFF week after 2 MIXED-risk.
US Stocks DOWN, Foreign Stocks MIXED to DOWN, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN
US Assets Bolt
US stocks, last week’s deer-in-the headlights, decided to bolt this week rather than risk getting hit by a truck. US large-caps (-0.8%) and small-caps (-2.4%) both finished the week lower after CME futures’ pushed the probability of a US rate hike next Wednesday to 87%. The inflation fears were stoked by $100 oil and the week’s PPI and CPI reports. The US Dollar (-0.0%) was flat, and US long bonds (-2.1%) continued to swoon. The yields on both cash (3.91%) and the ten-year (4.98%) rose sharply as the yield curve (106 bps) steepened. Commodity prices (+3.9%) jumped again driven by another surge in oil prices (+9.5%) leaving both overbought. WTI is now above $100. Gold (-2.0%), fearing an imminent Fed rate hike, lost ground for a third week. Elsewhere, offshore equities were focused on inflation and expect interest rate hikes in Europe and Japan next week. European equities (-1.9%) suffered heavily for a second week. Asia-Pacific (-1.6%) and Latin America (-0.3%) were also lower. Japan (+0.3%) was the only major offshore gainer. Next week the Fed Open Market Committee will either hike US rates or it won’t (See Moospeak.) There were three model changes this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (4 of 4 and up this week). The Baltic Dry Index, oil and copper prices and bond yields are all higher, making the outlook very positive.
INFLATION: August CPI and PPI came in warmer and still above target. WTI oil prices surged over 9% for a second straight week, now past $100 and up this quarter. Global inflation per the Fed Check (84) increasingly warrants tightening. Chance of a Fed rate hike in three days rose to 87%.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales Down, Inflation Warmer. Yield curve positive and steepening. Recession chances a year out shrinking and minimal. Money market system healthy per SOFR-T spread. Above average US growth prospects. GDP Now estimate (Q3) at 4.4% as of 9/10.
FEDERAL RESERVE: FOMC meets in three days (9/16/26). Policy message has been mixed, By December, at least one Fed rate HIKE (88%) and possibly two are likely. The Fed's balance sheet currently stands at $6.74 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Odds of a 25 basis point hike are 87%. Fed Check (84) remains hawkish since 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: There were three changes to the models this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK: POSITIVE (4 of 4)
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 9/11/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD US Small-Caps (IWM)
The Global Index Model SWITCHES to Emerging Markets (EEM) 9/11/2026.
Equities are still the best place to be, beating cash, bonds, and gold, but which equities? Former #1 US small-caps has dropped to #2, technically no longer bullish with a negative and deteriorating PMO. Emerging markets (EEM) take over the top slot with a very bullish technical rating and a positive, improving price momentum oscillator. On the negative side, global rate hikes will curb emerging market exports.
Best Alternative: US large-caps (SPY) have the highest technical strength (TS+) but the US is facing a rate hike. Developed Markets (EFA) are also very bullish but facing rate hikes in Japan and Europe.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. *stop-loss, **buy-stop, ***note
PERFORMANCE YTD 9/11/26:
INDEX MOOSE +21%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +10%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +3%
SPY BENCHMARK +12%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities did well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies. Rate increases in June in Europe and Japan dampened interest in offshore equities in favor of US small caps.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.