Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Fast Times At Golden High
Market Thumbnail: 2/1/2026
Overbought gold bullion (-2.8%) tanked almost 16% top to bottom between Thursday and Friday but ended up less than 3% lower on the week. We also got a new Fed chair nominee, and another government shutdown to ponder this week. (See Moospeak.) Meanwhile, Japan (+1.4%) led foreign equities higher this week as rumors of financial intervention to shore up the Yen continued to linger. Equities in Latin America (+1.1%) and Europe (+0.9%) were close behind, but Asia-Pacific (+0.1%) slowed. US equities were mixed with large caps (+0.4%) regaining half the prior two week’s losses and small caps (-1.9%) backing off three weeks of work as well. US long bonds (-1.7%) got hammered as interest rates rose. The 10-year yield rose 13bps to 4.25% and the 30-day rose 7 to 3.58%. That steepened the yield curve to 68 bps. The Dollar (-0.2%) continued to lose ground thanks to US tariffs and to the Yen intervention concerns. Commodities (+1.0%) led by oil (+7.5%) also rallied on the weaker dollar. No model changes this week.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 2/1/2026
Gold Corrects
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual gain for any asset in any of our models in thirty years. 2026 began as 2025 ended-- with a parabolic rise in gold, until this week when it suffered an ugly two-day setback. Though it plunged 16% top to bottom this week GLD only lost 4% on the week and remains 12% higher in January alone. No stop loss was triggered. Elsewhere, a growing interest in small cap US equities also took a hit this week. International stocks, both emerging and developed, are looking attractive.
PERFORMANCE YTD 1/23/26:
INDEX MOOSE +12%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +3%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +2%
SPY BENCHMARK -1%
2026: Strong gold keeps the Index model in bullion to start 2026. US small caps and or emerging markets may be poised to take over if GLD falters. One more Fed rate cut looks possible but only after Powell has exited in June. Trillions in US federal deficit spending show no signs of abating, but tariffs are putting a slight dent in it.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.