Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Gold Finally Folds
Market Thumbnail: 3/22/2026
A third week of war in the Middle East created a third risk-off week in the financial world. Once again, commodities (+2.2%) and oil (+5.6%) led things higher, stoking inflation fears, raising interest rates and sending equities and income into the toilette. Additionally, a mid-week Fed meeting gave chairman Powell an opportunity to make things worse, which he did, routing gold (-10.3%) the only semi-respectable asset left on the board. (See Moospeak.) Europe (-3.2%), Japan (-2.6%), Asia-Pacific (-1.9%), and Latin America (-1.7%) continued the negative tone among equities. US large-caps (-2.1%) and small-caps (-1.8%) also extended previous losses. US long Treasury bonds (-0.9%) slowed their recent retreat, but the 10-year yield jumped from 3.96% to 4.39% and the cash yield bumped up to 3.62%) as the Straits of Hormuz south of Iran, continued to constrict the supply of oil coming out of the region. That kept crude oil prices close to $100 a barrel and pressured commodity prices, even as the Dollar dipped (-0.2%). One model change this week.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 3/22/2026
Gold Abandoned
THIS WEEK: SWITCH to CASH from GOLD (GLD) since 3/18/26 via stop.
The Index Model had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual gain for any asset in any of our models in thirty years. 2026 began as 2025 ended-- with a parabolic rise in gold, until it suffered an ugly two-day setback in February. It recovered, but then war in Iran dinged it in March and the Fed abandoned it this week. Still, it remains 12% higher on the year and is oversold. Meanwhile, interest in equities has faded with the war. US and International stocks, both emerging and developed, are looking less attractive in light of the US/Iran war. As of 3/18, cash is the Index Model's preferred hold.
PERFORMANCE YTD 3/22/26:
INDEX MOOSE +12%
AOM (Moderate Growth) -2%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) -3%
SPY BENCHMARK -5%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty, and the model goes to cash.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.