Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- MAY.31.2026
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION— Risk-ON (2)
THIS WEEK saw a 2nd Risk-ON week in a row:
US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks UP, Bonds UP and Gold UP.
EQUITIES ONWARD & UPWARD
So much for walking away in May. This week closed out one of the best performing May’s in US market memory. The S&P (SPY) averages about a half percent gain in May but it posted 5.4% for 2026, just shy of its 15-year best of 6.1%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq (QQQ) rocked out with a 10.6% May return. Reports of progress in the US-Iran peace talks lowered oil prices below $90 and spurred equities. in the US, small-caps (+1.9%) led large caps (+1.5%). US long bond prices rallied (+1.8%) for a second straight week. The US ten-year yield slipped 11 bps to 4.45% and the three-month yield held at 3.59%, flattening the yield curve to 87 basis points. Offshore, equities in Asia-ex-Japan (+4.4%), and Japan (+1.5%) led a moribund Europe (+0.5%), and a faltering Latin America (+0.0%). The Dollar retreated (-0.4%), which helped gold bullion (+0.8%) but not commodities (-3.5%) or oil (-8.4%). No changes to the models this week after the US Equity Strategy Model switched to Momentum last week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (4 of 4). No change. War has the Baltic Dry Index, the 10-year US yield, and oil and copper prices all higher over the last 13 weeks.
INFLATION: PCE inflation cooler than expected. Oil prices down 5% and below $100. Global inflation per Fed Check warrants tightening. No new inflation data.
US ECONOMIC DATA: PCE COOLING; NEW HOMES, INCOME, SPENDING & Q1 GDP WEAKEN; DURABLES SURGE. Recession chance a year out minimal. Financial system health per SOFR-T spread, sound. GDP Now estimate (Q2) down as of 5/28: 3.8%.
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.70 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting (6/17). Kevin Warsh to replace Interim Chair Jerome Powell whenever. Iran war has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check (77) remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) NO CHANGE. (48%) outweighs chances of a December Fed rate HIKE (46%) and the chance of a CUT (0%).
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: No change. The TSP model holds International equities (I Fund). The GLOBAL Index model holds Emerging Markets (EEM). USES model holds Momentum since 5/22/26.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 5/31/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD Emerging Markets
THIS WEEK: HOLD EEM since 04/13/26. The model defaulted to the second choice (EEM) behind bullion (GLD) in mid-April due to performance. EEM advanced to #1 rank in mid-May.
Best Alternative: Emerging Markets gapped higher triggering a buy-stop 4/8/26. All US equities lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. With the Iran/US war now stoking oil inflation fears and prompting Fed rate cut pessimism in 2026, gold lost some luster. Developed International equities are also weakening due to energy supply concerns in Europe and Asia.
PERFORMANCE YTD 5/31/26:
INDEX MOOSE +26%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +10%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +5%
SPY BENCHMARK +11%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities have done well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.