Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Court Rejects “Emergency” Tariffs
Market Thumbnail: 2/22/2026
Friday, the Supreme Court voted 6-3 that under existing law a President cannot invoke emergency powers in order to set tariffs. It looked like a win for the Dollar, for US assets, for the US consumer, for US retail and for congressional hegemony over the nation’s purse strings, but it isn’t. (See Moospeak). We also got news that the government closure took a big chunk out of Q4 GDP (+1.4%) and that December PCE core inflation was 3%. US stocks ended their extended funk this week with large-caps (+1.1%) leading small-caps (+0.6%) higher. US Bonds (-0.4%) lost ground. The 10-year yield rose to 4.09%, and the cash yield rosea tick to 3.60%, steepening the yield curve to 50 bps. Rising interest rates boosted the Dollar (+1.0%) which adversely affected Japan (-2.5%), but not so much Asia-Pacific (+2.3%), Latin America (+2.3%), and Europe (+1.5%). Gold (+1.3%), commodities (+3.0%) and oil (+6.1%) also gained despite the stronger greenback. No model changes this week.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 2/22/2026
Gold Recovers
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual gain for any asset in any of our models in thirty years. 2026 began as 2025 ended-- with a parabolic rise in gold, until it suffered an ugly two-day setback in February. It recovered, however, and remains 15% higher five weeks into 2026. Elsewhere, a growing interest in small cap US equities also took a hit this week. International stocks, both emerging and developed, are looking attractive.
PERFORMANCE YTD 2/22/26:
INDEX MOOSE +18%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +4%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +3%
SPY BENCHMARK -1%
2026: Strong gold keeps the Index model in bullion to start 2026. US small caps and or emerging markets may be poised to take over if GLD falters. One more Fed rate cut looks possible but only after Powell has exited in June. Trillions in US federal deficit spending show no signs of abating, but tariffs are putting a slight dent in it.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.