Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Executive Summary
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION—Risk ON (3)
THIS WEEK saw a 3rd Risk-ON week in a row. US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks UP, Bonds FLAT and Gold UP.
CEASEFIRE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
An indefinite US naval blockade and a shaky ceasefire in Iran may have given stock investors reason to celebrate but it left the bond market in a state of disbelief. Stocks rallied globally led by US small-caps (+5.5%) and large-caps (+4.5%). Abroad, emerging equity markets (+5.1%) led developed markets (+2.1%). Asia-Pacific (+5.3%) in particular played catch-up with Latin America (+0.1%). Japan (+2.3%) and Europe (+2.2%) posted healthy gains but lagged as buyer interest swung back toward the US. US long bond prices (0.0%) were unchanged for a second straight week as oil (-7.0%) led the commodity index (-0.7%) lower for a third week. The US 10-year T-yield (4.25%) and the 3-month cash yield (3.60%) each rose The Dollar (-0.3%) slipped into neutral helping gold (+2.0%) recover for a second straight week. All bets could be off, however, unless the ceasefire, slated to end next week (April 22), is extended.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (4 of 4). War has the Baltic Dry Index, the 10-year US yield, and oil and copper prices all higher over the last 13 weeks.
INFLATION: Oil below $85. PPI warm on oil surge, but core cool.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Poor. Production, Housing, Small Business Optimism Weaken; Surveys Up
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.69 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting (4/29). Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell in May. War has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) No December Fed rate change (68%) outweighs chance of cut (31%) or hike (1%).
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: The TSP model holds International equities (I Fund). On 4/13/26, USES switches to newly added component IWM (US small caps) and the GLOBAL Index model switches to EEM.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 4/17/2026
INDEX MODEL: Holding MMF Cash
THIS WEEK: Switched to EEM on 4/13/26 via stop.
Gold (GLD) was working off a stop loss this week and did not clear until Friday. The model therefore defaulted to the second choice (EEM) on Monday.
Best Alternative: Emerging Markets gapped higher triggering a buy-stop 4/8/26. All US equities have lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. With the Iran/US war now stoking oil inflation fears and prompting Fed rate cut pessimism in 2026, gold has lost some luster.
PERFORMANCE YTD 4/17/26:
INDEX MOOSE +17%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +6%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +3%
SPY BENCHMARK +4%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities have done well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.