Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- MAY.015.2026
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION—
THIS WEEK saw a Risk-OFF week after 2 Risk-ON:
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks DOWN, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
INFLATION WEEK DISAPPOINTS
A spate of ugly consumer, producer, and import-export inflation data ruined most folks’ week. (See Moospeak.) That and an 11% jump in oil prices pretty much erased any hope of a Fed rate cut this year and in fact made a rate hike more likely. After a great week last week, equities in Latin America (-5.4%), Asia-ex-Japan (-4.0%), Europe (-2.6%) and Japan (-1.2%) all retreated. In the US, small-caps (-2.3%) followed the negative script, but large-caps (+0.2%) managed to hold onto a sliver of black. US long bond prices (-4.0%) sank to a 9-month low. The US ten-year yield spiked 24 bps to 4.60% and the three-month yield fell 1 tick to 3.59%, steepening the yield curve to 101 bpts. The Dollar rose (+1.6%), knocking gold bullion (-3.8%) lower. Commodities in general (+2.9%) led by oil (11%). No changes to the models this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (4 of 4). War has the Baltic Dry Index, the 10-year US yield, and oil and copper prices all higher over the last 13 weeks.
INFLATION: Oil prices up 11% and above $100. Global inflation per Fed Check warrants tightening. One year CPI (3.8%), PPI (6.0%), and Import prices (4.2%) all well above Fed target.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Mixed. Jobless claims up. Retail sales solid, industrial production and capacity utilization pick up. Recession chance a year out minimal. Financial system health per SOFR-T spread, sound. GDP Now estimate (Q2) up: 4.0%.
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.72 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting (6/17). Kevin Warsh to replace Interim Chair Jerome Powell whenever. Iran war has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check (77) remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) December Fed rate HIKE (51%) now outweighs chance of a CUT (1%) and NO CHANGE. (48%)
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: No change. The TSP model holds International equities (I Fund). USES holds US small caps (IWM), and the GLOBAL Index model holds Emerging Markets (EEM).
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 5/15/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD Emerging Markets
THIS WEEK: HOLD EEM since 04/13/26. The model defaulted to the second choice (EEM) behind bullion (GLD) in mid-April due to performance. EEM advanced to #1 rank in mid-May.
Best Alternative: Emerging Markets gapped higher triggering a buy-stop 4/8/26. All US equities lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. With the Iran/US war now stoking oil inflation fears and prompting Fed rate cut pessimism in 2026, gold lost some luster. Developed International equities are also weakening due to energy supply concerns in Europe and Asia.
PERFORMANCE YTD 5/15/26:
INDEX MOOSE +20%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +7%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +3%
SPY BENCHMARK +8%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities have done well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.