Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
An International Rally
Market Thumbnail: 2/8/2026
As the Olympic Committee prepared to hand out gold medals in Italy over the next 16 days, gold bullion (+2.4%) regained much of last week’s 2.8% loss. GLD remains #1 in the Index model. Foreign equities, emerging (+1.6%), and developed (+1.9%), however, continue to show more strength than US shares. That is especially true of Japan (+4.3%), Latin America (+1.9%), Asia Pacific (+1.4%) and Europe (+1.1%). Ever since the advent of US tariffs US large caps (-0.2%) being the more exposed to international trade, have underperformed small caps. IWM (+2.1%) has been trying to take up the slack, but their volatility has retarded the progress. US long bonds (+1.1%) though bearish, rallied this week amid lower long rates. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.21%, and cash yields added a tick to 3.59%, flattening the yield curve to 62 bps. Despite falling interest rates, the Dollar (+0.6%) recovered from a sharp six-day oversold loss this week. The jump in the greenback weighed on commodities (-1.7%) especially oil (-3.4%) and added to the recent losses in Bitcoin. No model changes this week.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 2/6/2026
Gold Corrects
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual gain for any asset in any of our models in thirty years. 2026 began as 2025 ended-- with a parabolic rise in gold, until it suffered an ugly two-day setback in Februrary. It recovered, however, and remains 15% higher five weeks into 2026. Elsewhere, a growing interest in small cap US equities also took a hit this week. International stocks, both emerging and developed, are looking attractive.
PERFORMANCE YTD 2/6/26:
INDEX MOOSE +15%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +3%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +2%
SPY BENCHMARK -1%
2026: Strong gold keeps the Index model in bullion to start 2026. US small caps and or emerging markets may be poised to take over if GLD falters. One more Fed rate cut looks possible but only after Powell has exited in June. Trillions in US federal deficit spending show no signs of abating, but tariffs are putting a slight dent in it.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.