Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
A MAJOR DOWNER
Market Thumbnail: 3/6/2026
The widely expected Israeli-US attack on Iran this week has had a predictably negative impact on financial markets. US large caps (-2.0%) and small caps (-4.0%) retreated this week, along with US long Treasury bonds (-3.1%). (The 10-year yield rose to 4.13% and the cash yield dipped to 3.57%.) Plunging equities in Japan (-8.2%), Asia-Pacific (-8.1%), Latin America (-7.3%) and Europe (-6.6%) led the way lower. The negativity was exacerbated by singularly bad news in the February employment report that jobs actually fell by 92K and unemployment rose back to 4.4%. Normally that would bode well for a Fed rate cut sooner rather than later, but the war has shut down the Straits of Hormuz south of Iran, constricting the supply of oil out of the region and spiking crude prices 33% from $65 to $90 a barrel. The war pushed commodity prices 10% higher as well, even as the Dollar rallied (+1.4%) in a flight to safety that pushed gold (-2.1%) slightly lower. One model change this week though USES and TSP both triggered 20-day stop-losses.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 2/29/2026
Gold Recovers
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual gain for any asset in any of our models in thirty years. 2026 began as 2025 ended-- with a parabolic rise in gold, until it suffered an ugly two-day setback in February. It recovered, however, and remains 20% higher two months plus into 2026. Meanwhile, the interest in foreign equities faded. International stocks, both emerging and developed, are looking less attractive in light of the US/Iran war.
PERFORMANCE YTD 2/22/26:
INDEX MOOSE +20%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +1%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +1%
SPY BENCHMARK -2%
2026: Strong gold keeps the Index model in bullion to start 2026. US small caps and or emerging markets may be poised to take over if GLD falters. One more Fed rate cut looks possible but only after Powell has exited in June. Trillions in US federal deficit spending show no signs of abating, but tariffs are putting a slight dent in it.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.