Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- MAY.01.2026
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION—
THIS WEEK saw the 1st Risk-ON week after 1 MIXED-Risk week.
US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
CEASEFIRE, BLOCKADE PUSH OIL PRICES HIGHER
An extended ceasefire coupled with a US naval blockade of Iranian ports pushed oil (+7.9%) back above $100 this week, adding 3.2% to the CRB index. US long bonds (-1.3%) weakened as a result with the US ten-year yield up 7 bps to 4.38% and the three-month yield down a tick to 3.58%. Equities were nonplussed. US small-caps (+1.0%) led large-caps (+0.9%) solidly higher, joined by Asia-Pacific (+1.0%) and Japan (+1.1%). Europe (+0.1) managed to finish in the black and only recent star Latin America (-1.7%) continued to correct. The Dollar (-0.3%) weakened slightly as the BoJ intervened to boost the Yen. Gold (-2.3%) lost ground despite the weaker Dollar. No changes to the models this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (4 of 4). War has the Baltic Dry Index, the 10-year US yield, and oil and copper prices all higher over the last 13 weeks.
INFLATION: Oil very bullish and over $100. Global inflation per Fed Check warrants tightening. PCE inflation above 3% and warming.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Good. Confidence, Income, Spending, Durable orders Up; LEI Down. Recession chance a year out minimal. Financial system health per SOFR-T spread, sound. GDP Now estimate (Q2): 3.5%.
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.70 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting (6/17). Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell in May. War has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) No December Fed rate change (78%) outweighs chances of a cut (13%) or a hike (9%).
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: No change. The TSP model holds International equities (I Fund). USES holds newly added component IWM (US small caps), and the GLOBAL Index model holds EEM.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 5/01/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD Emerging Markets
THIS WEEK: HOLD EEM since 04/13/26 via stop.
Gold (GLD) was working off a stop loss last week and the model therefore defaulted to the second choice (EEM) which has the best recent performance.
Best Alternative: Emerging Markets gapped higher triggering a buy-stop 4/8/26. All US equities have lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. With the Iran/US war now stoking oil inflation fears and prompting Fed rate cut pessimism in 2026, gold has lost some luster. Developed International equities are also weakening due to energy supply concerns in Europe and Asia.
PERFORMANCE YTD 5/1/26:
INDEX MOOSE +17%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +6%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +2%
SPY BENCHMARK +6%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities have done well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.