Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- JUL.24.2026
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION—Risk-OFF (2)
THIS WEEK the 2nd Risk-OFF week after two MIXED-Risk weeks.
US Stocks DOWN, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN and Gold UP
US EQUITY RETREAT DEEPENS AS WAR INTENSIFIES
With the post-ceasefire resumption of US bombing about to enter a third week US equities continue to slide. US small-caps (-1.0%) led large-caps (-0.6%) lower as oil prices (+10.3%) pushed above $90, pressuring commodity inflation (+3.9%). The likelihood of a Fed rate hike increased, and bond yields rose with long T-bond prices dropping 2.1%. The ten-year yield rose 14 bps to 4.68%, while the 3-month cash yield added 10 bps to 3.81%. That steepened the yield curve to 87 bps. Higher yields helped the Dollar (+0.9%) but not enough to weaken gold bullion (+0.9%) appreciably. Foreign equities, for their part were mixed. Asia-Pacific (0.0%) was flat, and Europe (-0.2%) was down, while Japan (+0.8%) and Latin America (+1.7%) recovered some of their recent losses. There were no changes to the models this week, but confirmation of a possible stop loss in US small caps next week could lead to changes in all three models.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (3 of 4). (unchanged this week). War has the Baltic Dry Index, copper prices and bond yields higher over the last 13 weeks, all positives. Only oil is down for the quarter.
INFLATION: No new data. Oil prices rose 10% this week and are now back above $90 per barrel, but they are still down this quarter. Global inflation per the Fed Check (88) still warrants tightening, but it has improved assisted by rate hikes in Europe and Japan.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Global Services & Manufacturing Beat; June New Home Sales Revive; Jobless Claims Down
Recession chances a year out minimal. Financial system health per SOFR-T spread: sound. GDP Now estimate (Q2) UP as of 7/24: 1.7%.
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.75 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting is in late July (7/29). Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh replaced Jerome Powell May 22. Iran war has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check (88) is improving but remains hawkish since 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) The odds are 62% that rates will remain unchanged at the next meeting. By December, however, a Fed rate HIKE (93%) is the most likely outcome. FOMC coming 7/29.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: There were no changes to the models this week, but confirmation of a possible stop-loss in US small caps next week could lead to changes in all three.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 7/24/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD US Small-Caps (IWM)
The Global Index Model HOLDS US Small-caps (IWM) 7/13/2026.
IWM leads in overall confidence among assets still working off a buy-stop. It also leads in positive PMO. Technical strength is very bullish.
NOTE: IWM touched a stop-loss this Friday but held above its 50-day right below. Waiting to confirm the stop-loss if it breaks below the 50-day next week.
The best regional alternative this week is ILF which gave a buy-stop 7/22 and is rallying with the rise in oil prices due to war. That however may be temporary. The best Index alternative is US large caps (SPY) or Developed Markets (EFA).
Volatility Alert: It is likely IWM will fill its latest downside gap (249-259) and retest its 200-day before the US/Iran war is put to bed.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way.
PERFORMANCE YTD 7/24/26:
INDEX MOOSE +18%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +7%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +2%
SPY BENCHMARK +8%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities did well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies. Rate increases in June in Europe and Japan dampened interest in offshore equities.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.