Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- JUL.10.2026
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION— MIXED-Risk (2)
THIS WEEK the 2nd MIXED-Risk week in a row.
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN.
EQUITIES MIXED AFTER CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES
It is no surprise that the recent memorandum of understanding between Iran’s Islamic Revolution and the US has unraveled. Folks accustomed to strapping explosives to their chests in order to get their way do not have the same concept of self-interest as those who don’t. Bond prices (-2.0%) fell for a second week as oil (+4.5%) rose above $70 and barrel and commodities surged (+3.6%). That pushed the US ten-year yield up 8 bps to 4.57% and the three-month yield up 1 tick to 3.70%, steepening the yield curve to 87 basis points. Equities were less definitive. US Large-cap US stocks (+1.4%) rallied for a second week while small caps (-0.5%) retreated again. Abroad, Latin America (+2.4%), Asia Pacific (+2.0%) and Japan (+1.5%) rebounded, while Europe (-1.1%) gave some back. The Dollar improved (+0.2%) weakening gold (-0.3%). There were no changes to the models this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (3 of 4). (unchanged this week). War has the Baltic Dry Index, copper prices and bond yields higher over the last 13 weeks, all positives. Only oil is down for the quarter.
INFLATION: No new price data. Oil prices rose this week and are now back above $70 per barrel, but they are still down this quarter. Global inflation per the Fed Check (92) still warrants tightening, but it has improved amid falling oil prices and rate hikes in Europe and Japan.
US ECONOMIC DATA: SERVICES EXPANDING, BUT MORE SLOWLY. Recession chance a year out minimal. Financial system health per SOFR-T spread: sound. GDP Now estimate (Q2) UP as of 7/8: 1.3%.
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.74 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting is in late July (7/29). Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh replaced Jerome Powell May 22. Iran war has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check (92) is improving but remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) The odds are 65% that rates will remain unchanged at the next meeting in July. By December, however, a Fed rate HIKE (85%) is the most likely outcome.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: No change. The TSP model holds small-cap equities (S Fund). The GLOBAL Index model holds Emerging Markets (EEM). USES model holds Momentum since 5/22/26.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 7/10/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD Emerging Markets
THIS WEEK: HOLD EEM (since 04/13/26.) The model defaulted to the second choice (EEM) behind bullion (GLD) in mid-April due to performance. EEM advanced to #1 rank in mid-May led by Asian tech giants (Korea and Taiwan). By June rate hikes in Europe and Japan began to pressure offshore and tech equities allowing US small caps to gain ground as oil prices fell and eased US rate pressures.
Best Alternative: Small caps are technically sound (very bullish) with a superior and positive PMO. Very interest rate sensitive, however.
Volatility Alert: It is likely EEM will fill its latest downside gaps (57-59) and retest its 50-day before the US/Iran war is put to bed.
PERFORMANCE YTD 7/10/26:
INDEX MOOSE +23%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +9%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +4%
SPY BENCHMARK +11%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities have done well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.