Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
ANOTHER DOWNER
Market Thumbnail: 3/15/2026
A second week of war in the Middle East led to another risk-off week in the financial world. Once again, offshore equities took their lumps this week. Europe (-2.3%), Latin America (-2.0%), Japan (-1.7%) and Asia-Pacific (-0.5%) have now corrected 9% to 10% each in the last two weeks. US large caps (-1.5%) and small caps (-1.7%) also retreated again this week but are only down 3.5% and 5.7% respectively in two weeks. US long Treasury bonds (-3.3%) added another 3%+ loss to last week’s swoon. The 10-year yield jumped to 4.28% and the cash yield bumped up to 3.60%) as the Straits of Hormuz south of Iran, continued to constrict the supply of oil coming out of the region. That pushed crude oil prices (+10.2%) close to $100 a barrel and pressured commodity prices another 4.4% higher. even as the Dollar rallied (+1.5%) in a war induced flight to safety that again pushed gold (-2.7%) lower. One model change this week.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 3/15/2026
Gold Consolidates
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual gain for any asset in any of our models in thirty years. 2026 began as 2025 ended-- with a parabolic rise in gold, until it suffered an ugly two-day setback in February. It recovered, but then war in Iran dinged it in March. Still, it remains 16% higher on the year. Meanwhile, interest in equities has faded with the war. US and International stocks, both emerging and developed, are looking less attractive in light of the US/Iran war.
PERFORMANCE YTD 3/15/26:
INDEX MOOSE +16%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) -1%
AOM (Moderate Growth) -1%
SPY BENCHMARK -3%
2026: Strong gold keeps the Index model in bullion to start 2026. US small caps and or emerging markets may be poised to take over if GLD falters. One more Fed rate cut looks possible but only after Powell has exited in June. Trillions in US federal deficit spending show no signs of abating, but tariffs are putting a slight dent in it.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.