Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
MORE BUYING INTO 2026
Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 1/16/26:
With current Q4 US GDP estimates at 5.3%, investors swarmed into equities for a third straight week in 2026. (See Moospeak.) In the second full week of trading, US small caps (+2.1%) once again led everything higher while large caps (-0.3%) and very long US Treasury bonds (0.0%) rested. Shorter term both the 10-year T-yield (4.23%) and the 3-month cash yield (3.56%) rose. Offshore, equities in Latin America (+2.0%), Asia-Pacific (+1.2%), Japan (+1.0%) and Europe (+0.5%) all advanced. Commodities (+1.1%) rallied on strength in oil (+1.2%) and gold (+1.6%) despite a stronger US Dollar (+0.4%). No model changes.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 1/16/26
Gold Still On Top
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual gain for any asset in any of our models in thirty years. 2026 is beginning as 2025 ended-- continuing strength in gold and growing interest in small cap US equities. International stocks, especially emerging regions are also attractive.
PERFORMANCE YTD 1/16/26:
INDEX MOOSE +6%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +2%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +1%
SPY BENCHMARK -1%
2026: Strong gold keeps the Index model in bullion to start 2026. US small caps and or emerging markets may be poised to take over if GLD falters. One more Fed rate cut looks possible but only after Powell has exited in June. Trillions in US federal deficit spending show no signs of abating, but tariffs are putting a slight dent in it.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.