Moosistory

Decision Moose

Moosistory

Strategic Performance-- Timing vs. Buy-and-Hold

Market timing is not the only portfolio strategy in town. In fact, Index Moose has lagged diversified buy-and-hold in three of the last four years. Economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.

Year	Index Moose	US Strategy Moose	Diversified Global B&HM	Diversified Global B&HA
2016	-6.0%	-5.6%	5.3%	3.5%
2017	9.0%	28.5%	14.1%	8.0%
2018	5.1%	1.2%	-9.9%	-6.2%
2019	-6.5%	21.1%	19.5%	12.5%
YTD	-4.6%	+11.1%	+1.7%	-2.2%

TSP Performance-- Timing vs. Buy-and-Hold

Government employees invested in the Thrift Savings Plan have numerous options, but the basic decision is whether to time the market or take a diversified buy and hold approach. Market timing outperformed all diversified buy-and-hold options in two of the last three years, and is doing it again year-to-date in 2020. It underperformed in 2019, however, Economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.

Year	Diversified TSP B&HC	Diversified TSP B&HM	Diversified TSP B&HA	TSP Moose
2017	14.5%	16.8%	18.8%	21.0%
2018	(3.6%)	(4.9%)	(6.0%)	6.5%
2019	17.6%	20.7%	23.3%	14.9%
YTD	-0.1%	-0.4%	-0.8%	+3.2%

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Long-term Performance-- Index Moose

Significantly outperforming SPY since inception, Index Moose has lagged the S&P since 2012. A loss minimization construct, its performance suffered during a decade ('09-'19) without any bear markets. Changes made to the model framework in 2016 and 2017, improved returns and reduced volatility somewhat, but performance vs. the S&P remains lackluster.

Transaction History

A complete transaction history of the Moose is presented below

Index Moose components were revised in May 2000 and again in March 2005. Exchange traded index funds (ETFs) replaced open-end mutual funds and closed-end active funds.

The earlier (mutual fund) version of the model had 12 winning transactions in 14 signals for an 85% accuracy rate. The current (ETF) version has given 110 round-trip signals, 82 of which are winners, for a 75% accuracy rate.


116	Latest	Hold Cash	$962,266
115	02.24.2020	Switch to Cash via stop loss	$961,548
114	02.07.2020	Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY)	$995,901
113	01.27.2020	Switch to Cash	$995,610
112	01.03.2020	Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL)	$1,008,844
111	12.13.2019	Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ)	$1,034,918
110	10.21.2019	Switch to Cash via stop loss	$1,032,560
109	10.04.2019	Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV)	$1,102,767
108	09.11.2019	Switch to Cash via stop loss	$1,101,501
107	08.23.2019	Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV)	$1,140,421
106	08.09.2019	Switch to Cash	$1,139,603
105	07.19.2019	Switch to Gold (GLD)	$1,084,825
104	05.06.2019	Switch to Cash via stop-loss	$1,076,300
103	03.15.2019	Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL)	$1,062,999
102	03.06.2019	Switch to Cash via stop-loss	$1,062,190
101	01.25 2019	Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)	$1,099,357
100	01.04.2019	Switch to Gold (GLD)	$1,086,651
99	10.10.2018	Stop-Loss to Cash	$1,080,629
98	09.21.2018	Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY)	$1,105,503
97	08.21.2018	Stop-Buy US Small-cap Equities (IWM)	$1,101,052
96	06.29.2018	Stop Loss to Cash	$1,098,163
95	05.04.2018	Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM)	$1,044,250
94	03.19.2018	Switch to cash (via stop loss)	$1,042,165
93	02.20.2018	Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)	$1,065,890
92	02.05.2018	Switch to cash (via stop loss)	$1,065,501
91	11.10.2017	Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ)	$1,018,505
90	11.03.2017	Switch to Cash	$1,018,270
89	08.11.2017	Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)	$1,004,584
88	07.28.2017	Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL)	$1,007,451
87	06.09.2017	Switch to European Equities (IEV)	$999,273
86	04.28.2017	Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL)	$978,129
85	03.03.2017	Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)	$974,389
84	12.05.2016	Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM)	$928,498
83	10.21.2016	Switch to Cash	$928,062
82	09.23.2016	Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM)	$956,731
81	07.15.2016	Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)	$937,925
80	06.24.2016	Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV)	$909,026
79	06.10.2016	Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM)	$938,874
78	04.01.2016	Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)	$969,732
77	03.25.2016	Switch to CASH	$969,691
76	03.04.2016	Switch to Gold (GLD)	$1,008,929
75	09.04.2015	Switch to CASH	$1,008,203
74	03.13.2015	Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ)	$1,095,071
73	10.10.2014	Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV)	$1,007,325
72	09.26.2014	Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY)	$1,046,235
71	09.05.2014	Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)	$1,159,173
70	08.22.2014	Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV)	$1,171,436
69	07.03.2014	Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)	$1,111.267
68	04.11.2014	Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV)	$1,110,170
67	04.04.2014	Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY)	$1,151,194
66	03.07.2014	Switch US Small-cap Equities (IWM)	$1,203,581
65	02.07.2014	Switch to European Equities (IEV)	$1,154,384
64	05.31.2013	Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM)	$1,019,402
63	05.10.2013	Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ)	$1,105,919
62	02.08.2013	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$1,105,728
61	01.04.2013	Switch to European Equities (IEV)	$1,084,106
60	12.14.2012	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$1,084,080
59	09.21.2012	Switch to Gold (GLD)	$1,135.797
58	08.10.2012	Switch to US Large-cap Eq. (SPY)	$1,096,632
57	05.04.2012	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$1,039,088
56	03.02.2012	Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY)	$1,041,439
55	02.10.2012	Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM)	$1,054,676
54	09.30.2011	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$1,063,946
53	09.23.2011	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$1,063,944
52	04.29.2011	Switch to Gold (GLD)	$1,014,475
51	12.03.2010	Switch to US Small-cap Eq. (IWM)	$888,590
50	11.26.2010	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$888,568
49	10.15.2010	Switch to Pacific ex-Japan (EPP)	$925,500
48	07.02.2010	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$880,370
47	05.07.2010	Switch to Gold (GLD)	$878,736
46	03.05.2010	Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM)	$895,676
45	01.22.2010	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$895,572
44	11.06.2009	Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)	$932,139
43	10.30.2009	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$932,131
42	10.16.2009	Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF)	$1,013,505
41	07.24.2009	Switch to Pacific ex-Japan (EPP)	$817,451
40	04.10.2009	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$817,082
39	02.06.2009	Switch to Gold (GLD)	$848,133
38	11.28.2008	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$904,527
37	09.26.2008	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$903,981
36	08.29.2008	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$902,582
35	03.21.2008	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$896,170
34	11.23.2007	Switch to Gold (GLD)	$809,853
33	11.09.2007	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$808,852
32	10.05.2007	Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF)	$807,409
31	08.10.2007	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$802,658
30	04.13.2007	Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF)	$747,629
29	03.09.2007	Switch to Pacific ex-Japan (EPP)	$672,465
28	03.02.2007	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$671,826
27	11.03.2006	Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF)	$645,352
26	08.18.2006	Switch to European Equities (IEV)	$615,174
25	06.09.2006	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$609,415
24	04.07.2006	Switch to Gold Bullion (GLD)	$590,664
23	01.27.2006	Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF)	$586,785
22	12.30.2005	Switch to Japan Equity Index (EWJ)	$561,056
21	11.05.2005	Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF)	$537,307
20	10.07.2005	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$535,744
19	08.26.2005	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$552,712
18	08.05.2005	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$551,615
17	06.17.2005	Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)	$508,790
16	05.20.2005	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$501,161
15	03.24.2005	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$499,023
14	11.12.2004	Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)	$446,568
13	08.06.2004	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$423,727
12	03.26.2004	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$421,967
11	01.10.2004	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$396,007
10	01.03.2004	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$395,943
9	07.19.2003	Switch to Asian Equities (SAF)	$270,011
8	02.08.2003	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$264,386
7	01.04.2003	Switch to Gold Shares (ASA)	$278,513
6	06.15.2002	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$251,855
5	06.01.2002	Switch to Cash (3moT)	$251,685
4	11.24.2001	Switch to Gold Shares (ASA)	$129,198
3	07.28.2001	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$127,541
2	01.27.2001	Switch to Gold Shares (ASA)	$117,381
1	05.07.2000	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$100,000
		MODEL SWITCHES TO ETFs
15	05.07.2000	Close Invesco Europe	$275,417
14	01.21.2000	Switch to Invesco Europe	$266,459
13	07.08.1999	Switch to Invesco Pacific	$214,552
12	04.23.1999	Switch to Invesco Latin America	$207,312
11	11.13.1998	Switch to Schwab S&P Index	$173,557
10	08.02.1998	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$167,647
9	03.06.1998	Switch to Invesco Europe	$150,516
8	11.07.1997	Switch to Schwab S&P Index	$135,842
7	08.15.1997	Switch to Schwab Small Cap Index	$126,667
6	07.25.1997	Switch to Schwab S&P Index	$131,642
5	02.21.1997	Switch to Invesco Latin America	$113,804
4	12.27.1996	Switch to Schwab S&P Index	$107,364
3	11.15.1996	Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)	$108,242
2	10.04.1996	Switch to Schwab S&P Index	$102,881
1	10.04.1996	Buy Invesco Latin America	$100,000