GOLD RECOVERS, Equities Languish
LAST YEAR: The USES Model out-performed the S&P and all B&H. The Index Model lagged the S&P benchmark and Aggressive B&H.
THIS YEAR: Gold was the best performer entering February. It became overbought and pulled back in March but quickly rebounded and ended Q1 at new highs. US Stocks entered February bullish but backed off in March and plummeted in April. Offshore equities followed lower in April. US Bonds entered February bearish after three Fed rate cuts but have begun to look bullish amid deteriorating economic data in early 2025. The Fed is not expected to cut rates again until June. Trillions in federal deficit spending continues now through September, while DOGE is identifying billions in waste, leaving the exact amount of Federal expenditure unknown.
THIS WEEK: For private investors the Index Model is outperforming the S&P and diversified B&H in 2025. The USES model is beating B&H and outperforming its S&P benchmark.
It was the 1st Risk-ON week after two risk-OFF:
Stocks UP, Bonds DOWN, and Gold UP.
TSP: MODERATE RISK EXCELS
TSP THIS YEAR: US Stocks entered February bullish but backed off in March and plummeted in April. Offshore equities followed lower in April. US Bonds entered February bearish after three Fed rate cuts but have begun to look bullish amid deteriorating economic data in early 2025. The Fed is not expected to cut rates again until June. Trillions in federal deficit spending continues now through September, while DOGE is identifying billions in waste, leaving the exact amount of Federal expenditure unknown.
TSP THIS WEEK: The Thrift Savings Plan timing model is outperforming all Lifetime Strategies. For buy-and-hold investors the more moderate Lifetime portfolios are now outperforming the more aggressive ones.
It was the 1st Risk-ON week after two risk-OFF:
Stocks UP, Bonds DOWN, and Gold UP.