Decision Moose
Moosistory
Strategic Performance-- Timing vs. Buy-and-Hold
Market timing is not the only portfolio strategy in town. In fact, Index Moose has lagged diversified buy-and-hold in three of the last four years. Economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.
|
Year |
Index Moose |
US Strategy Moose |
Diversified Global B&HM |
Diversified Global B&HA |
|
2016 |
-6.0% |
-5.6% |
5.3% |
3.5% |
|
2017 |
9.0% |
28.5% |
14.1% |
8.0% |
|
2018 |
5.1% |
1.2% |
-9.9% |
-6.2% |
|
2019 |
-6.5% |
21.1% |
19.5% |
12.5% |
|
YTD |
-0.9% |
+3.4% |
+1.2% |
+1.8% |
TSP Performance-- Timing vs. Buy-and-Hold
Government employees invested in the Thrift Savings Plan have numerous options, but the basic decision is whether to time the market or take a diversified buy and hold approach. Market timing outperformed all diversified buy-and-hold options in two of the last three years, and is doing it again year-to-date in 2020. It underperformed in 2019, however, Economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.
|
Year |
Diversified TSP B&HC |
Diversified TSP B&HM |
Diversified TSP B&HA |
TSP Moose |
|
2017 |
14.5% |
16.8% |
18.8% |
21.0% |
|
2018 |
(3.6%) |
(4.9%) |
(6.0%) |
6.5% |
|
2019 |
17.6% |
20.7% |
23.3% |
14.9% |
|
YTD |
1.39% |
1.58% |
1.76% |
+0.41% |
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Long-term Performance-- Index Moose
Significantly outperforming SPY since inception, Index Moose has lagged the S&P since 2012. Changes made to the model framework in 2016 and 2017, appear to have improved performance and reduced volatility. A loss minimization construct, its performance has suffered in a decade without any bear markets. See the newsletter for more.
Transaction History
A complete transaction history of the Moose is presented below
Index Moose components were revised in May 2000 and again in March 2005. Exchange traded index funds (ETFs) replaced open-end mutual funds and closed-end active funds.
The earlier (mutual fund) version of the model had 12 winning transactions in 14 signals for an 85% accuracy rate. The current (ETF) version has given 110 round-trip signals, 82 of which are winners, for a 75% accuracy rate.
A complete transaction history of the Moose is presented below
Index Moose components were revised in May 2000 and again in March 2005. Exchange traded index funds (ETFs) replaced open-end mutual funds and closed-end active funds.
The earlier (mutual fund) version of the model had 12 winning transactions in 14 signals for an 85% accuracy rate. The current (ETF) version has given 110 round-trip signals, 82 of which are winners, for a 75% accuracy rate.
| 115 |
Latest |
HOLD US Large-cap Equities (SPY) |
$999,738 |
| 114 |
02.07.2020 |
Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY) |
$995,901 |
| 113 |
01.27.2020 |
Switch to Cash |
$995,610 |
| 112 |
12.03.2020 |
Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL) |
$1,008,844 |
| 111 |
12.13.2019 |
Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ) |
$1,034,918 |
| 110 |
10.21.2019 |
Switch to Cash via stop loss |
$1,032,560 |
| 109 |
10.04.2019 |
Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV) |
$1,102,767 |
| 108 | 09.11.2019 | Switch to Cash via stop loss |
$1,101,501 |
| 107 |
08.23.2019 |
Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV) |
$1,140,421 |
| 106 |
08.09.2019 |
Switch to Cash |
$1,139,603 |
| 105 |
07.19.2019 | Switch to Gold (GLD) |
$1,084,825 |
| 104 | 05.06.2019 |
Switch to Cash via stop-loss |
$1,076,300 |
| 103 |
03.15.2019 |
Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL) |
$1,062,999 |
| 102 | 03.06.2019 | Switch to Cash via stop-loss |
$1,062,190 |
| 101 | 01.25 2019 |
Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) |
$1,099,357 |
| 100 | 01.04.2019 | Switch to Gold (GLD) |
$1,086,651 |
| 99 | 10.10.2018 |
Stop-Loss to Cash |
$1,080,629 |
| 98 |
09.21.2018 |
Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY) |
$1,105,503 |
| 97 |
08.21.2018 |
Stop-Buy US Small-cap Equities (IWM) |
$1,101,052 |
| 96 | 06.29.2018 |
Stop Loss to Cash |
$1,098,163 |
| 95 |
05.04.2018 |
Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) |
$1,044,250 |
| 94 |
03.19.2018 |
Switch to cash (via stop loss) |
$1,042,165 |
| 93 |
02.20.2018 |
Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) |
$1,065,890 |
| 92 |
02.05.2018 |
Switch to cash (via stop loss) |
$1,065,501 |
| 91 |
11.10.2017 |
Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ) |
$1,018,505 |
| 90 |
11.03.2017 |
Switch to Cash |
$1,018,270 |
| 89 |
08.11.2017 |
Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) |
$1,004,584 |
| 88 |
07.28.2017 |
Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL) |
$1,007,451 |
| 87 | 06.09.2017 |
Switch to European Equities (IEV) |
$999,273 |
| 86 |
04.28.2017 |
Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL) |
$978,129 |
| 85 |
03.03.2017 | Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) |
$974,389 |
| 84 | 12.05.2016 | Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) | $928,498 |
| 83 | 10.21.2016 | Switch to Cash | $928,062 |
| 82 | 09.23.2016 | Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) | $956,731 |
| 81 | 07.15.2016 |
Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) | $937,925 |
| 80 | 06.24.2016 | Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV) |
$909,026 |
| 79 | 06.10.2016 | Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) | $938,874 |
| 78 | 04.01.2016 | Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) | $969,732 |
| 77 | 03.25.2016 |
Switch to CASH | $969,691 |
| 76 | 03.04.2016 | Switch to Gold (GLD) |
$1,008,929 |
| 75 | 09.04.2015 | Switch to CASH | $1,008,203 |
| 74 | 03.13.2015 | Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ) |
$1,095,071 |
| 73 | 10.10.2014 |
Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV) |
$1,007,325 |
| 72 | 09.26.2014 | Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY) |
$1,046,235 |
| 71 | 09.05.2014 | Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) | $1,159,173 |
| 70 |
08.22.2014 |
Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV) |
$1,171,436 |
|
69 |
07.03.2014 | Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) | $1,111.267 |
| 68 | 04.11.2014 | Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV) |
$1,110,170 |
| 67 | 04.04.2014 | Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY) |
$1,151,194 |
| 66 | 03.07.2014 | Switch US Small-cap Equities (IWM) |
$1,203,581 |
| 65 | 02.07.2014 | Switch to European Equities (IEV) |
$1,154,384 |
| 64 | 05.31.2013 | Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) |
$1,019,402 |
| 63 | 05.10.2013 |
Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ) |
$1,105,919 |
| 62 | 02.08.2013 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $1,105,728 |
| 61 | 01.04.2013 | Switch to European Equities (IEV) |
$1,084,106 |
| 60 | 12.14.2012 | Switch to Cash (3moT) |
$1,084,080 |
| 59 | 09.21.2012 | Switch to Gold (GLD) |
$1,135.797 |
| 58 | 08.10.2012 | Switch to US Large-cap Eq. (SPY) |
$1,096,632 |
| 57 | 05.04.2012 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) |
$1,039,088 |
| 56 | 03.02.2012 | Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY) |
$1,041,439 |
| 55 | 02.10.2012 | Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) |
$1,054,676 |
| 54 | 09.30.2011 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) |
$1,063,946 |
| 53 | 09.23.2011 | Switch to Cash (3moT) |
$1,063,944 |
| 52 | 04.29.2011 | Switch to Gold (GLD) |
$1,014,475 |
| 51 | 12.03.2010 |
Switch to US Small-cap Eq. (IWM) |
$888,590 |
| 50 | 11.26.2010 | Switch to Cash (3moT) |
$888,568 |
| 49 | 10.15.2010 |
Switch to Pacific ex-Japan (EPP) |
$925,500 |
| 48 | 07.02.2010 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) |
$880,370 |
| 47 | 05.07.2010 | Switch to Gold (GLD) |
$878,736 |
| 46 | 03.05.2010 | Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) |
$895,676 |
| 45 | 01.22.2010 | Switch to Cash (3moT) |
$895,572 |
| 44 | 11.06.2009 | Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) |
$932,139 |
| 43 | 10.30.2009 | Switch to Cash (3moT) |
$932,131 |
| 42 | 10.16.2009 | Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF) |
$1,013,505 |
| 41 | 07.24.2009 |
Switch to Pacific ex-Japan (EPP) |
$817,451 |
| 40 | 04.10.2009 | Switch to Cash (3moT) |
$817,082 |
| 39 | 02.06.2009 |
Switch to Gold (GLD) |
$848,133 |
| 38 | 11.28.2008 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) |
$904,527 |
| 37 | 09.26.2008 |
Switch to Cash (3moT) |
$903,981 |
| 36 |
08.29.2008 |
Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) |
$902,582 |
| 35 | 03.21.2008 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $896,170 |
| 34 | 11.23.2007 | Switch to Gold (GLD) | $809,853 |
| 33 | 11.09.2007 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $808,852 |
| 32 | 10.05.2007 | Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF) | $807,409 |
| 31 | 08.10.2007 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $802,658 |
| 30 |
04.13.2007 |
Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF) | $747,629 |
| 29 | 03.09.2007 | Switch to Pacific ex-Japan (EPP) | $672,465 |
| 28 | 03.02.2007 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $671,826 |
| 27 | 11.03.2006 | Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF) | $645,352 |
| 26 | 08.18.2006 | Switch to European Equities (IEV) | $615,174 |
| 25 | 06.09.2006 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $609,415 |
| 24 | 04.07.2006 | Switch to Gold Bullion (GLD) | $590,664 |
| 23 | 01.27.2006 | Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF) | $586,785 |
| 22 | 12.30.2005 | Switch to Japan Equity Index (EWJ) | $561,056 |
| 21 | 11.05.2005 | Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF) | $537,307 |
| 20 | 10.07.2005 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $535,744 |
| 19 | 08.26.2005 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) | $552,712 |
| 18 | 08.05.2005 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $551,615 |
| 17 | 06.17.2005 | Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) | $508,790 |
| 16 | 05.20.2005 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) | $501,161 |
| 15 | 03.24.2005 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $499,023 |
| 14 | 11.12.2004 | Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) | $446,568 |
| 13 | 08.06.2004 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) | $423,727 |
| 12 | 03.26.2004 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $421,967 |
| 11 | 01.10.2004 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) | $396,007 |
| 10 | 01.03.2004 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $395,943 |
| 9 |
07.19.2003 | Switch to Asian Equities (SAF) | $270,011 |
| 8 |
02.08.2003 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) | $264,386 |
| 7 |
01.04.2003 | Switch to Gold Shares (ASA) | $278,513 |
| 6 |
06.15.2002 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) | $251,855 |
| 5 |
06.01.2002 | Switch to Cash (3moT) | $251,685 |
| 4 |
11.24.2001 | Switch to Gold Shares (ASA) | $129,198 |
| 3 |
07.28.2001 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) | $127,541 |
| 2 |
01.27.2001 | Switch to Gold Shares (ASA) | $117,381 |
| 1 |
05.07.2000 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) | $100,000 |
| |
MODEL SWITCHES TO ETFs |
||
| 15 |
05.07.2000 | Close Invesco Europe | $275,417 |
| 14 | 01.21.2000 | Switch to Invesco Europe | $266,459 |
| 13 | 07.08.1999 | Switch to Invesco Pacific | $214,552 |
| 12 | 04.23.1999 | Switch to Invesco Latin America | $207,312 |
| 11 | 11.13.1998 | Switch to Schwab S&P Index | $173,557 |
| 10 | 08.02.1998 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) | $167,647 |
| 9 |
03.06.1998 | Switch to Invesco Europe | $150,516 |
| 8 |
11.07.1997 | Switch to Schwab S&P Index | $135,842 |
| 7 |
08.15.1997 | Switch to Schwab Small Cap Index | $126,667 |
| 6 |
07.25.1997 | Switch to Schwab S&P Index | $131,642 |
| 5 |
02.21.1997 | Switch to Invesco Latin America | $113,804 |
| 4 |
12.27.1996 | Switch to Schwab S&P Index | $107,364 |
| 3 |
11.15.1996 | Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) | $108,242 |
| 2 |
10.04.1996 | Switch to Schwab S&P Index | $102,881 |
| 1 |
10.04.1996 | Buy Invesco Latin America | $100,000 |
