GOLD RECOVERS, Equities Languish
LAST YEAR: The USES Model out-performed the S&P and all B&H. The Index Model lagged the S&P benchmark and Aggressive B&H.
THIS YEAR: Gold remains strong. US Stocks are fading into March while bonds are bearish but improving after three Fed rate cuts kept inflation fears alive. Trillions in federal deficit spending continues—now through September—and the Fed is most likely to wait until June to cut rates.
THIS WEEK: For private investors the Index Model is outperforming the S&P and diversified B&H in 2025. The USES model lags B&H and is under water but is outperforming its S&P benchmark.
It was the 1st MIXED-Risk week after 1 Risk-OFF week:
US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks MIXED. Bonds UP and Gold UP.
TSP: MODERATE RISK EXCELS
TSP THIS YEAR: US Stocks are bullish but fading into March while bonds are bearish but improving after three Fed rate cuts kept inflation fears alive. Trillions in federal deficit spending continues—now through March—and the Fed is most likely to wait until June to cut rates.
TSP THIS WEEK: Thrift Savings Plan's Lifetime Strategies are outperforming the TSP Model after a false stop-loss early in 2025. Moderate B&H is now outperforming Aggressive portfolios as large-cap growth resets after three strong years.
It was the 1st MIXED-Risk week after 1 Risk-OFF week:
US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks MIXED. Bonds UP and Gold UP.