Signed in as:
filler@godaddy.com
GOLD and Foreign Equities
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch to gold in late August, ahead of the first of three promised Fed rate cuts on 9/18. With rate cuts, trillions in US federal deficit spending, and US tariffs likely to continue through December, equities and hard assets appeared to have solid future prospects until the Fed called the third cut into question (10/29). Now there is more uncertainty at least until 12/10.
THIS WEEK: For private investors the Index Model is outperforming the S&P and diversified B&H in 2025. The USES model (and the S&P) are LAGGING Aggressive B&H .
THIS WEEK was the 1st MIXED-Risk week after one Risk-OFF: US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN, and Gold UP.
TSP: Most AGGRESSIVE B&H EXCELS
TSP THIS YEAR: Weak US stocks through January put the TSP model into cash in February helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting cash in late April for International stocks as markets improved turned out to be the only switch until two Fed rate cuts improved US equities' competitive position. With the first Fed rate cut on 9/18, two more expected, and trillions in federal deficit spending likely to continue through December, equities and hard assets appeared to have solid future prospects. Things have changed since, however. For more see the newsletter.
The TSP Timing Model is beating moderate Buy-and-Hold Lifetime Funds in 2025, but lagging the more aggressive ones. For Buy-and-Hold Lifetime investors: the most Aggressive allocations are out-performing all others.
THIS WEEK was the 1st MIXED-Risk week after one Risk-OFF: US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN, and Gold UP.