Decision Moose
Moosistory

Strategic Performance-- Timing vs. Buy-and-Hold

Market timing is not the only portfolio strategy in town. In fact, Index Moose has lagged diversified buy-and-hold in three of the last four years. Economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.

Year

Index Moose

US Strategy Moose

Diversified Global B&HM

Diversified Global B&HA

2016

-6.0%

-5.6%

5.3%

3.5%

2017

9.0%

28.5%

14.1%

8.0%

2018

5.1%

1.2%

-9.9%

-6.2%

2019

-6.5%

21.1%

19.5%

12.5%

YTD

-4.6%

+11.1%

+1.7%

-2.2%



TSP Performance-- Timing vs. Buy-and-Hold

Government employees invested in the Thrift Savings Plan have numerous options, but the basic decision is whether to time the market or take a diversified buy and hold approach. Market timing outperformed all diversified buy-and-hold options in two of the last three years, and is doing it again year-to-date in 2020. It underperformed in 2019, however, Economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.

Year

Diversified TSP B&HC

Diversified TSP B&HM

Diversified TSP B&HA

TSP Moose

2017

14.5%

16.8%

18.8%

21.0%

2018

(3.6%)

(4.9%)

(6.0%)

6.5%

2019

17.6%

20.7%

23.3%

14.9%

YTD 

-0.1%

-0.4%

-0.8%

+3.2%






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Long-term Performance-- Index Moose

Significantly outperforming SPY since inception, Index Moose has lagged the S&P since 2012. A loss minimization construct, its performance suffered during a decade ('09-'19) without any bear markets. Changes made to the model framework in 2016 and 2017, improved returns and reduced volatility somewhat, but performance vs. the S&P remains lackluster.

Transaction History

A complete transaction history of the Moose is presented below


Index Moose components were revised in May 2000 and again in March 2005. Exchange traded index funds (ETFs) replaced open-end mutual funds and closed-end active funds.


The earlier (mutual fund) version of the model had 12 winning transactions in 14 signals for an 85% accuracy rate. The current (ETF) version has given 110 round-trip signals, 82 of which are winners, for a 75% accuracy rate.

       
 116
 Latest
 Hold Cash
   $962,266   
 115
 02.24.2020
 Switch to Cash via stop loss
$961,548   
 114
 02.07.2020
 Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY)
 $995,901   
 113 
 01.27.2020
 Switch to Cash
$995,610   
 112
 01.03.2020
 Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL)
$1,008,844   
 111
 12.13.2019
 Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ)
$1,034,918   
 110
 10.21.2019
 Switch to Cash via stop loss
$1,032,560   
 109
 10.04.2019
 Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV)
$1,102,767  
 108  09.11.2019  Switch to Cash via stop loss
$1,101,501  
 107
 08.23.2019
 Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV)
 $1,140,421  
 106
 08.09.2019
 Switch to Cash
$1,139,603  
 105
 07.19.2019  Switch to Gold (GLD)
$1,084,825  
 104  05.06.2019
 Switch to Cash via stop-loss
   $1,076,300  
 103
 03.15.2019
 Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL)
$1,062,999  
 102  03.06.2019  Switch to Cash via stop-loss
$1,062,190  
 101  01.25 2019
 Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)
$1,099,357  
 100  01.04.2019  Switch to Gold (GLD)
$1,086,651  
  99  10.10.2018
 Stop-Loss to Cash
$1,080,629  
  98
 09.21.2018
 Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY)
   $1,105,503  
  97
 08.21.2018
 Stop-Buy US Small-cap Equities (IWM)
$1,101,052  
  96  06.29.2018
 Stop Loss to Cash
$1,098,163  
  95
 05.04.2018
 Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM)
$1,044,250  
  94
 03.19.2018
 Switch to cash (via stop loss)
$1,042,165  
  93
 02.20.2018
 Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)
$1,065,890  
  92
 02.05.2018
 Switch to cash (via stop loss)
$1,065,501  
  91
 11.10.2017
 Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ)
$1,018,505  
  90
 11.03.2017
 Switch to Cash
$1,018,270  
  89
 08.11.2017
 Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)
 $1,004,584  
  88
 07.28.2017
 Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL)
 $1,007,451  
  87  06.09.2017
 Switch to European Equities (IEV)
$999,273  
  86
 04.28.2017
 Switch to Asia Pacific ex-Japan (AXJL)
$978,129  
  85
 03.03.2017  Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF)
$974,389  
  84  12.05.2016  Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM)  $928,498  
  83  10.21.2016  Switch to Cash $928,062  
  82  09.23.2016  Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) $956,731  
  81  07.15.2016
 Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) $937,925  
  80  06.24.2016  Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV)
$909,026  
  79  06.10.2016  Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) $938,874  
  78  04.01.2016  Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) $969,732  
  77  03.25.2016
 Switch to CASH $969,691 
  76  03.04.2016  Switch to Gold (GLD)
$1,008,929 
  75  09.04.2015  Switch to CASH $1,008,203 
  74  03.13.2015  Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ) $1,095,071 
  73  10.10.2014  Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV)
$1,007,325 
  72  09.26.2014  Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY) $1,046,235 
  71  09.05.2014  Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) $1,159,173 
  70  08.22.2014
 Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV) $1,171,436 
  69
 07.03.2014  Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) $1,111.267 
  68  04.11.2014  Switch to Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV) $1,110,170 
  67  04.04.2014  Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY) $1,151,194 
  66  03.07.2014  Switch US Small-cap Equities (IWM) $1,203,581 
  65  02.07.2014  Switch to European Equities (IEV) $1,154,384 
  64  05.31.2013  Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) $1,019,402 
  63  05.10.2013  Switch to Japanese Equities (EWJ)
$1,105,919 
  62  02.08.2013  Switch to Cash (3moT)   $1,105,728 
  61  01.04.2013  Switch to European Equities (IEV) $1,084,106 
  60  12.14.2012  Switch to Cash (3moT) $1,084,080 
  59  09.21.2012  Switch to Gold (GLD) $1,135.797 
  58  08.10.2012  Switch to US Large-cap Eq. (SPY) $1,096,632 
  57  05.04.2012  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $1,039,088 
  56  03.02.2012  Switch to US Large-cap Equities (SPY) $1,041,439 
  55  02.10.2012  Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) $1,054,676 
  54  09.30.2011  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $1,063,946 
  53  09.23.2011  Switch to Cash (3moT)   $1,063,944 
  52  04.29.2011  Switch to Gold (GLD) $1,014,475 
  51  12.03.2010  Switch to US Small-cap Eq. (IWM)
$888,590 
  50  11.26.2010  Switch to Cash (3moT) $888,568 
  49  10.15.2010  Switch to Pacific ex-Japan (EPP)
$925,500 
  48  07.02.2010  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $880,370 
  47  05.07.2010  Switch to Gold (GLD) $878,736 
  46  03.05.2010  Switch to US Small-cap Equities (IWM) $895,676 
  45  01.22.2010  Switch to Cash (3moT) $895,572 
  44  11.06.2009  Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) $932,139 
  43  10.30.2009  Switch to Cash (3moT) $932,131 
  42  10.16.2009  Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF) $1,013,505 
  41  07.24.2009  Switch to Pacific ex-Japan (EPP)
$817,451 
  40  04.10.2009  Switch to Cash (3moT) $817,082 
 39  02.06.2009  Switch to Gold (GLD)
$848,133 
 38  11.28.2008  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $904,527 
 37  09.26.2008  Switch to Cash (3moT)
 $903,981 
 36  08.29.2008
 Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $902,582 
 35  03.21.2008  Switch to Cash (3moT) $896,170 
 34  11.23.2007  Switch to Gold (GLD) $809,853 
 33  11.09.2007  Switch to Cash (3moT)  $808,852 
 32  10.05.2007  Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF)  $807,409 
 31  08.10.2007  Switch to Cash (3moT) $802,658 
 30  04.13.2007
 Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF) $747,629 
 29  03.09.2007  Switch to Pacific ex-Japan (EPP) $672,465 
 28  03.02.2007  Switch to Cash (3moT)  $671,826 
 27  11.03.2006  Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF) $645,352 
 26  08.18.2006  Switch to European Equities (IEV) $615,174 
 25  06.09.2006  Switch to Cash (3moT) $609,415 
 24  04.07.2006  Switch to Gold Bullion (GLD)  $590,664 
 23  01.27.2006  Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF)  $586,785 
 22  12.30.2005  Switch to Japan Equity Index (EWJ) $561,056 
 21  11.05.2005  Switch to Latin American Eq. (ILF) $537,307 
 20  10.07.2005  Switch to Cash (3moT)  $535,744 
 19  08.26.2005  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $552,712 
 18  08.05.2005  Switch to Cash (3moT)  $551,615 
 17  06.17.2005  Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) $508,790 
 16  05.20.2005  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $501,161 
 15  03.24.2005  Switch to Cash (3moT)   $499,023 
 14  11.12.2004  Switch to Latin American Equities (ILF) $446,568 
 13  08.06.2004  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $423,727 
 12  03.26.2004  Switch to Cash (3moT)  $421,967 
 11  01.10.2004  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $396,007 
 10  01.03.2004  Switch to Cash (3moT) $395,943 
  9
 07.19.2003  Switch to Asian Equities (SAF) $270,011 
  8
 02.08.2003  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $264,386 
  7
 01.04.2003  Switch to Gold Shares (ASA) $278,513 
  6
 06.15.2002  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $251,855 
  5
 06.01.2002  Switch to Cash (3moT) $251,685 
  4
 11.24.2001  Switch to Gold Shares (ASA) $129,198 
  3
 07.28.2001  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $127,541 
  2
 01.27.2001  Switch to Gold Shares (ASA) $117,381 
  1
 05.07.2000  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $100,000 
   
 MODEL SWITCHES TO ETFs
 
 15
 05.07.2000  Close Invesco Europe $275,417 
 14  01.21.2000  Switch to Invesco Europe $266,459 
 13  07.08.1999  Switch to Invesco Pacific $214,552 
 12  04.23.1999  Switch to Invesco Latin America $207,312 
 11  11.13.1998  Switch to Schwab S&P Index $173,557 
 10  08.02.1998  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX) $167,647 
  9
 03.06.1998  Switch to Invesco Europe $150,516 
  8
 11.07.1997  Switch to Schwab S&P Index $135,842 
  7
 08.15.1997  Switch to Schwab Small Cap Index  $126,667 
  6
 07.25.1997  Switch to Schwab S&P Index $131,642 
  5
 02.21.1997  Switch to Invesco Latin America $113,804 
  4
 12.27.1996  Switch to Schwab S&P Index   $107,364 
  3
 11.15.1996  Switch to Long Bonds (BTTRX)  $108,242 
  2
 10.04.1996  Switch to Schwab S&P Index $102,881 
  1
 10.04.1996  Buy Invesco Latin America $100,000 
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