This Year: Stocks had a banner 2023 and bonds were generally unchanged. On the plus side, trillions in federal deficit spending have been extended through March ‘24 and the Fed is expected to begin cutting rates in the first half. On the negative side, several economic indicators are predicting recession. This week: A Risk-OFF week after a MIXED-Risk week. Stocks mostly DOWN, Bonds and Gold DOWN. Timing beat B&H.
2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016
US Equity Moose +10.9% 12.2% -7.0% 22.2% 20.9% 23.6% 1.2% 28.5% -5.6%
SPY Benchmark +7.3% 24.3% -19.5%
Index Moose +5.7% 3.6% -16.3% 11.7% 13.2% -6.5% 5.1% 9.0% -6.0%
Aggressive G&I (AOA) +4.3% 15.6% -17.9% 13.5% 10.7% 12.5% -6.2% 8.0% 3.5%
Moderate G&I (AOM) +1.6% 9.2% -16.4% 5.3% 7.7% 19.5% -9.9% 14.1% 5.3%
Government employees invested in the Thrift Savings Plan have numerous options, but the basic decision is whether to time the market or take a diversified buy and hold approach. Market timing outperformed all diversified buy-and-hold "Lifestyle" options in four of the last six years. Economic and financial conditions can have a major impact on strategic success. Monitoring year-to-date performance is one way to know what is currently working. See the newsletter for more.
This Year: Stocks had a banner 2023 and bonds were generally unchanged. On the plus side, trillions in federal deficit spending have been extended through March ‘24 and the Fed is expected to begin cutting rates in the first half. On the negative side, several economic indicators are predicting recession. This week: A Risk-OFF week after a MIXED-Risk week. Stocks mostly DOWN, Bonds and Gold DOWN. Lifetime lost ground on TSP Moose,
2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
TSP Agg Growth (L2060) +6.8% +23.3% -15.9% +19.9% new
TSP Moose +4.8% +16.5% -3.4% +13.3% +21.8% +14.9% +6.5% +21.0%
TSP Growth (L2050) +4.8% +20.0% -13.4% +16.3% +14.8% +23.3% -6.0% +18.8%
TSP G&I (L2040) +4.3% +18.1% -11.4% +14.5% +13.2% +20.7% -4.9% +16.8%
TSP Mod G&I (L2030) +3.8% +16.6% -9.0% +12.4% +11.3% +17.6% -3.6% +14.5%
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