Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Hedging the Punchbowl
Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 11/9/25:
After Fed chairman Powell’s admission that he might be pulling away the punchbowl come December, US markets reacted accordingly. US large-cap stocks and small-caps went south along with US long Treasury bonds and the US Dollar. Oil and commodities were also down, and gold was basically flat after correcting 11% in the previous two weeks. Offshore, Europe and Japan were fractionally lower while Asia-Pacific took a more sizeable hit. Latin America on a four-week run, was the only positive outlier. One change in the models.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 11/9/25
Index Model Comes Back to Earth
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event. Three weeks ago it posted a record annual year-to-date gain, most of it from gold. But gold was severely overbought and its time was limited. It has since corrected 11% but has not reached its stop-loss. (See Moospeak.) The model will switch out of gold when the numbers tell it to, but we're free to exit anytime. It is a lot easier to be patient when one is playing with house money. US Large-caps, Emerging markets and US small caps are attractive options, but rate cuts are key to their attractiveness as well. Recommendation: If you're in GLD expect support at the 50-day SMA or 20-day stop-loss. If neither holds, the model will exit.
PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE:
INDEX MOOSE +47%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +17%
SPY BENCHMARK +15%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +10%
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut on 9/18. With rate cuts and trillions in US federal deficit spending gold and hard assets should have solid future prospects.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.