Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
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Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 11/30/25:
CME futures reversed back to an 87% chance of a December Fed rate cut this week, spiking asset prices worldwide. Two Fed rate cuts have juiced asset prices from August on, but the euphoria dimmed on hawkish Fed Speak and a strengthening Dollar in November. Optimism returned this week however, as Fed doves came out for a third cut right before the Central Bank entered its pre-meeting “quiet period”. US Large cap and small cap equities led the world higher this week. Latin America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Japan followed. US Treasury bonds attracted solid support as yields drifted slightly lower on the prospect of a rate cut. The 10y yield fell to 4.02% and the 3m yield dropped to 3.70%, which weakened the US Dollar. That helped commodity prices including oil and gold. The three models are all holding steady, but two are prepared to switch as soon as next Monday.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 11/30/25
Index Model Recovers
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model has had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual year-to-date gain about a month ago, most of it from gold. Severely overbought, however, gold corrected about 11% on hawkish Fed-speak creating a buy-the-dip opportunity last week. Equities followed suit, triggering 20-day stop loss switches last week that proved false this week as expected. Recommendation: If you're in GLD you can still expect support at the 50-day SMA or 20-day stop-loss. If you want to add to or open a gold position, GLD is currently selling at a 4% discount to its all time high. It's future after the Fed meeting December 10, however, will depend on the tenor of US monetary policy going into 2026.
PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE:
INDEX MOOSE +55%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +17%
SPY BENCHMARK +17%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +11%
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut on 9/18. With rate cuts and trillions in US federal deficit spending gold and hard assets should have solid future prospects.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.