Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Up, Up, Up, Up.
Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 12/28/25:
As the last full week of trading in 2025 drew to a close it was hard to find any red on the screen. Just about anything people threw money at in 2025 seemed to have worked out, often in a major way, making year-end window-dressing a cake-walk. (See Moospeak.) Equities were up this week led by emerging markets (+2.0%), more specifically. Latin America (+2.4%) and Asia Pacific ex-Japan (+2.1%). Developed region equities (+1.2%), including Europe (+1.3) and Japan (+0.5%) also made headway. In the US, large caps (+1.4%) led small caps (+0.3%) higher. Gold (+4.4%) was also a standout, thanks to a tanking Dollar (-3.9%) and a surge in precious metals generally. On the defensive side, long-duration US Treasuries (+0.5%), after an 8-week slide, steadied around their 200-day support as both long and short yields dipped slightly. Commodities (-0.7%) pulled back, but oil prices (+0.7%) rose in a reversal of recent fortunes. No model changes.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 12/29/25
Gold On Hold
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model has had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual year-to-date gain about a month ago, most of it from gold. Severely overbought, gold corrected about 11% on hawkish Fed-speak in November, never triggering a stop-loss. US small caps (IWM) recently overtook gold in the primary momentum metric (CI%), but Gold continues to lead in technical strength, PMO, and quarterly performance. The Fed rate cut propelled gold 3.3% higher in 2 weeks.
PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE:
INDEX MOOSE +67%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +18%
SPY BENCHMARK +11%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +11%
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut on 9/18. With rate cuts and trillions in US federal deficit spending gold and hard assets should have solid future prospects.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.