Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Executive Summary
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION—
THIS WEEK saw the 1st MIXED-Risk week after 3 Risk-ON:
US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks DOWN, Bonds FLAT and Gold DOWN.
STRONGER DOLLAR, RISING OIL WEIGH ON OFFSHORE EQUITIES
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports and another proposed round of negotiations in Pakistan are on for this weekend, amid a shaky, but extended ceasefire in Iran. US stocks continued higher for a fourth week with both US small-caps (+0.3%) and large-caps (+0.5%) up fractionally on solid retail sales and encouraging early corporate profit reports. Offshore, however, developed equity markets (-2.4%) took a hit from rising oil prices (+14.1%) and a stronger Dollar (+0.4%), especially Japan (-3.2%), and Europe (-2.3%) with their oil supply issues. Emerging equity markets (+0.2%) were mixed with recent star Latin America (-2.7%) reversing while Asia-Pacific (+0.9%) held its own as buyer interest continues to swing back toward the US markets. US long bond prices (-0.0%) were essentially unchanged for a third straight week though commodity prices (+5.5%) jumped after a three-week dip. The US 10-year T-yield (4.31%) rose, and the 3-month cash yield (3.59%) was off a tick. The rising Dollar slammed the brakes (-2.8%) on gold which had enjoyed a two-week run. No changes to the models this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (4 of 4). War has the Baltic Dry Index, the 10-year US yield, and oil and copper prices all higher over the last 13 weeks.
INFLATION: Oil pushing $100.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Light, Good. Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales Better than Expected. Recession chance a year out minimal. Financial system health per SOFR-T spread, sound.
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.71 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Fed meeting next week (4/29). Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell in May. War has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) No December Fed rate change (68%) outweighs chance of cut (31%) or hike (1%).
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: No change. The TSP model holds International equities (I Fund). USES holds newly added component IWM (US small caps), and the GLOBAL Index model holds EEM.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 4/24/2026
INDEX MODEL: Switch to Emerging Markets
THIS WEEK: HOLD EEM since 04/13/26 via stop.
Gold (GLD) was working off a stop loss last week and the model therefore defaulted to the second choice (EEM) which has the best recent performance.
Best Alternative: Emerging Markets gapped higher triggering a buy-stop 4/8/26. All US equities have lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. With the Iran/US war now stoking oil inflation fears and prompting Fed rate cut pessimism in 2026, gold has lost some luster. Developed International equities are also weakening due to energy supply concerns in Europe and Asia.
PERFORMANCE YTD 4/24/26:
INDEX MOOSE +18%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +5%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +2%
SPY BENCHMARK +5%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities have done well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.