Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Awaiting the Fed
Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 10/26/25:
Another positive week in the markets, as one would assume the week before a Fed rate cut. A 25 basis point cut next Wednesday, and the promise of another cut December 10 should round out the Fed’s work this year. US small caps led large caps higher this week. Offshore, however, a stronger Dollar kept foreign equities in check. Equities in Japan and Europe rose fractionally, while Asia-Pacific and Latin America also lagged the US. The post-rate-cut rally in US long bonds also continued. The 10-yr yield fell 1 bpt to 4.00%, and the cash yield dipped to 3.76% steepening the yield curve to 24 bps. Sanctions on Russia pushed oil and commodity prices higher, but gold finally relieved its 7-week overbought condition. No change in the models.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 10/18/25
Index Model Posts Record Return
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
An 8.4% two-day dip in GLD this week provided a buying opportunity on Wednesday and alleviated a long-standing overbought condition. By Friday, enough investors had taken that opportunity for bullion to finish the week down 2.9% ahead of next week's Fed meeting. The prospect of two Fed rate cuts before year-end should continue to drive gold through year-end. Gold and equities are more attractive than cash. Only very long bonds (EDV) are not but they are improving. Among equities, foreign are more attractive than US, and among foreign equities, emerging markets are currently more attractive than developed. Recommendation: If you're in gold, hang tight. As long as Fed script doesn't abruptly change, bullion looks good to go.
PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE:
INDEX MOOSE +89%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +17%
SPY BENCHMARK +16%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +10%
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut on 9/18. With rate cuts, trillions in US federal deficit spending, and US tariffs likely to continue through December, foreign equities and hard assets appear to have solid future prospects.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.